Geographical And Technical Flat Period Will Dominate Policy

Abstract: The Experiences On Friday (September 5) Of The Non-Agricultural Data In August After The Accident, This Week Will Go Into The Quiet Period Of The Fed’S Interest Rate Decisions, Although The Market Fluctuated Monday, But Still Maintained The Inertia Down Trend. 1275 For Gold, And For The Silver 3840 Two Key Position Has A Larger Resistance.

Fundamental Analysis

On Monday The Market News And Policy Face And Not A Lot Of Important Events, First On The Geopolitical, Although The Ukrainian Crisis Of Ukraine And Eastern Ukraine Pro-Russian Forces, Has Agreed To A Cease-Fire, But Shortly After The Agreement Signed, In The Eastern Ukrainian City Of Shelling Incident, The International Gold Market Rebounded Slightly. But As The Scottish Independence Referendum Poll Shows More And More To Support Independent, The Euro Against The Dollar Falls, The Dollar Index Record Again, The International Gold Market Therefore Under Pressure And Quickly Fell, And Hit A New Low.

In Addition, Belongs To The Quiet Period Before The Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision This Week, This Week The International Gold Market Is Expected To Mainly Affected By Geopolitical And Technical.

A Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart

Daily Gold Chart Shows, The Location Of The 1275 Is Still Important, One Is The Lower Limit Of 1275 Belongs To The Early Intensive Area, 2 It Is The Early Stage Of The Small High Cycle On The Rebound, Also Near 1275. As Long As The Market In 1275, Bear Market Remains The Same.

Spot Gold Strategy: To Operate. If Insist Short Train Of Thought, After The Market To New Lows, Rebounded To Near 1264 Blocked, Can Open Air Or Additional Empty Single Again. The Target Of 1240.

Support: 1240 1235 1230

Resistance: 1275 1287 1290

Spot Silver Daily Chart

Spot Silver Day Online, Can See Clearly That The Market Bear Market, MACD Indicators Into The Low State Of Passivation, This Often Means That Dip Trends Will Continue, And Does Not Appear Short Power Failure.

Spot Silver Operation Strategy: The Empty Single Continued To Hold, The Market Rebounded To Near 3790 Blocked, Can Open Air Again. Target 3745, Stop 3745.

Support: 3745 3730 3690

Resistance: 3827 3840 3890

20140917_5998

Daily Chart Spot Copper

Spot Copper, Chart, The Market Over Small Cycle Level Consolidation Trend, A Rally To Mingle Line. But The Rapid Fall Of Market On Monday Night, Makes The Day Online Drew A Long Shanghai Small Yang Line, The K Line Of Shanghai Area, Become An Important Reference For Our Range.

Spot Copper Operation Strategy: Can Open More Appropriately, Near 42990 Goals, 43700, Stop 42850.

Support: 42990 42850 42650

Resistance: 43500 43800 44400

Today’S Important Data:

Time Before The Event Importance Value Expected Value

09:30 Australia August Employment Change High – 00300

A Stronger Dollar And Promote A Large Number Of Technical Trading Gold Prices Tumbled Over $20

On Tuesday (September 2) And The Decline Of The Dollar And Crude Oil Under The Influence Of Technical Selling Prices Fell More Than $20, Fell More Than 1.7%, Dropped From Above $1280 An Ounce To Above $1260 An Ounce. Weeks After Sanya, Gold Prices Near $1266 An Ounce.

On Tuesday, The Gold Market Trading Volume Is Very Big, And The 1.7% Decline Was The Biggest One-Day Fall Since The Middle Of July.

In The Eastern United States Time At 6:30 In The Morning To 6:40 In Ten Minutes, The Gold Price Collapses Like Snowball, Traders Said, At $1275 An Ounce Level Of Technical Support And On August 21, Low Level Was Below $1273 An Ounce, Trading Volume Has Soared To More Than 10000 Hands.

Markets Remain The European Central Bank Is Expected To Take Measures, And The U.S. Manufacturing And Construction Spending Data Has Pushed The Dollar Against The Euro.

The Institute For Supply Management (ISM), According To Data From The Us ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Rose To 59.0, A Level Since March 2011.

Markit Data Compiled Institutions, According To The United States On August Manufacturing Expansion Continued Strong Momentum, And The Fastest Since April 2010, For Employment Index Is The Fastest Growth Rate Since March Of Last Year.

The U.S. Department Of Commerce (DOC), According To A Report In July Construction Spending Rose 1.8% In March, Higher Than Expected 1.1%, To An Annual Rate Of $981.3 Billion, And For The Highest Level Since May 2012.

Sharps Pixley Gold Trading At Ross Norman Said: As The Dollar Hit A High Level, The Gold Is Affected, It Is Obviously Happened This Time. Political And Economic Has A Lot To Worry About, But People Are Used To The Bad News, So They No Longer Have An Impact On Prices.

20140917_7825

On Tuesday, According To Data On The Comex Volume Is About 50% Higher Than That Of Average 30 Days.

In The Market Of The European Central Bank’S Monetary Policy Is Expected, Under The Condition Of The Euro Against The Dollar Fell To The Lowest Level 1 Year.

Partner Of LOGIC Advisors, Bill O ‘Neill Said, A Stronger Dollar Is Obviously Bad For Commodities, To Offset The Effect Of Regional Disputes.

Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws (Petro Poroshenko), Warned On Monday That If Russian Troops Continue To Support The Pro-Russian Rebels, Is Facing The Risk Of An All-Out War Between The Two Countries, Europe And The United States Has Threatened To Russia’S New Sanctions Measures. The Pentagon Said On Tuesday That More Than Ten Thousand Russian Troops Stationed In The Ukraine Border.

SPDR Gold ETF Shed 1.8 Tons On Monday, Total Holdings Into 793.2 Tons.

(Gold 30 Minutes Figure Image FX168 Business Network)

The Situation In Russia And Ukraine Deteriorated Sharply Safe Havens Generally To Rise

On Thursday, August 28), According To Media Reports In Eastern Ukraine Situation Deteriorated Sharply, The Euro Against The Dollar To Refresh Low To 1.3169, The Dollar Index Rebounded Higher Refresh Intraday High Of 82.54, The International Spot Gold Prices Rose 1%, To An Intraday High Of $1295.50 An Ounce. On Thursday, August 28) Ukraine Safety Defense Committee Said: Ukrainian Troops Near The New Asia Speed, Shelling By Russian Troops. Ukrainian Announced Russian Invasion, The Situation Is Now Upgrade Signs. Reported That Russia’S Armored Fighting Vehicles Only About 3 Km Distance Between Russia And Ukraine Border, Russian Soldiers Are Sitting On The Armored Personnel Carriers, Their Dusty, One Facial Injuries, One Of The Damaged Truck, And Was Pulling Ahead. Russian Soldiers And Vehicles Is Not Equipped With The Exact Military Flag, License Plate Has Been Removed, Part Of The Russian Soldiers Wearing White Armbands, Vehicles Marked Hickies. Russian Media Said, The Ukrainian Government Admitted That Loss Of Control Of The Novoazovsk Militia Called Lugansk Surrounding Areas Of Eastern Ukraine Offensive. Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws: Hold A Special Meeting Called On The UN Security Council And The European Union Council, To Discuss How To Solve The Donbass (Donbas, Namely The East) Situation. Foreign Media In Russia’S Southern Reporters Saw Russian Territory On A Configuration Red Star Of The Helicopter, The Helicopter Near An Unidentified Army. Ukraine’S Foreign Minister Said Authorities In Kiev And The West When It’S Bath Area (Donbas, Namely The East) The Situation To Discuss Response Mechanism. The U.S. Ambassador To The Osce Responded: Guide At The Mercy Of The Osce Observers By Russia, Ukraine Escalation Is Quite Worrying, America’S Promise Will Pay More Cost In Russia. The French President Francois Hollande Responded: Russia Ukraine Must Respect The Sovereignty, Or Face New Sanctions. Finland’S Ministry Of Defence Said: Russian Aircraft Violated The Finnish Airspace Thursday; This Is The Third Time Since Russia Plane Week Finland Airspace. On Thursday, August 28) The Euro Against The Dollar Fell To 1.3169, The Dollar Index Rebounded Higher Refresh Intraday High Of 82.54, A Safe-Haven Currency Yen And Swiss Franc Rallied Against The Euro, Traders Blamed It On Ukraine Russia Into The Comments. Russia Etf Index (Rather) Fell 2.7% In Pre-Market Trading. And When The Euro Against The Dollar By Beijing Time At 1.3184/86, The Dollar Index At 82.48/50, The Euro Against The Yen At 136.72/74, 1.2060/62 Of The Euro. Spot Gold At 1291.50/52.

Situation In Ukraine To Wake Gold Won Three Consecutive Yang Analysts Warn Rebound Is Short

Is Due To The Situation In Ukraine, And The Stock Market Fell Back, On Thursday (August 29) Gold Prices Rose For The Third Consecutive Trading Day, And Break Through $1290 An Ounce Level For A Time. On Friday, After Open, Fluctuations In The Price Near $1288 An Ounce.

But Analysts Say, Because The U.S. Economic Data Are Still Strong, So The Gold This Rally Could Be Short-Lived.

Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws On Thursday Denounced The Russian Troops Invaded, Said The Situation In Eastern Ukraine Is Deteriorated. NATO, NATO (NATO) A Military Officer Said Thursday That More Than One Thousand Russian Military Personnel Current Activities Within The Territory Of Ukraine. This Show Russia To Ukraine In The Level Of Military Action.

On Thursday, Gold Had About 1% Of The Increase, But Since Then With Good Performance And U.S. Economic Data.

The U.S. Department Of Commerce Data Show That The United States In The Second Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Revised Annual Season Rate Increases By 4.2%, 3.9% More Than Expected. Mainly By The Enterprise Investment Recorded More Than Boost The Biggest Gain In More Than Two Years.

America, According To Data From The National Association Of Realtors Pending Home Sales Month After Seven Chinese Rose Adjustable Rate Climbed 3.3%, Its Biggest Monthly Jump Since August 2013, Is Expected To Grow By 0.5%.

The U.S. Department Of Labor Data Show That The United States On August 23, When The Jobless Claims Below Return To 300000 Levels, According To The Us Labour Market Recovery Is Good.

VTP Capital Andrey Kryuchenkov Said: The Market In Regional Dispute News From Ukraine To Wake Up, But Because Of Strong U.S. Economic Data And Didn’T Have Too Much Benefit.

Yesterday, According To Data On The Comex Trading A 30-Day Average About 20% Less.

Middle East Aspect, On Thursday, Iraqi Security Forces And Armed Kurdish North To The Occupation Of Iraq Nineveh Province Omar, Extreme Organization Of The Islamic State Of Iraq And The Levant Launch A Counterattack, Trying To Regain Control Of The Town And Its Surrounding Areas. Previously, Nineveh Province, Head Of The Parliament’S Energy Committee, Said The Kurdish Rebels Had Took Back The Province Ai For Mr. Luo And Bart Horse In Two Fields.

SPDR Gold ETF Holdings Did Not Change, Still Remain At 795.60 Tons.

(Gold 30 Minutes Figure Image FX168 Business Network)

The Paper Gold Prices Fall In Place At The Bottom Of The Unfit To Empty

Gold Cast The Net On September 3, The Paper Gold Prices Will Be Coming Late This Week The European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision And The United States Non-Farm Has Not Yet Arrived, Paper Gold Price Falls The Current. At Present Although European Economic Recovery To Adverse Market To Euro QE Is Looking Forward To, But The Meeting Is Expected To Launch The Probability Is Very Small.

Will Be Released On Friday August Non-Farm Payrolls Report, The United States Market Expectations And Employment Growth In 225000, Seven Months More Than 200000; The Unemployment Rate From 6.2% In July To 6.1% In June.

The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes Of July Be Hawks, Yellen’D In The Annual Meeting Of The Central Bank Said That If The Labour Market Recovery Is Still Faster Than Expected, Or Ascending Faster Than Expected Inflation, The Fed Could Raise Interest Rates, Interest Rates May Be Faster Ever Since. So The Non-Farm As Long As The Data Is Not Sharp Decline, So Still Bearish Paper Gold Prices.

In Addition, Non-Agricultural Data In The U.S. Economy Continues Phase Good Cases, Bad Paper Gold Price Is Still A Big Probability Event, Even The More Short Paper Gold Price Is Difficult To Change The Present Pattern Of Paper Gold Price Indication Of Cautious Optimism.

The Evening Paper Gold Price Operation Or To Last Night’S Fall 250 For High Resistance For Short, If The Rally Site 252 A Line So Short Term Will Be Below The Shock In 255.

Paper Gold Prices Temporarily In Shock At The Bottom Of The Range, The Current Paper Gold Price Is Definitely Not Suitable To Empty, Not To Break The 248 Would Leave Suspense To Non-Agricultural.

Short-Term Paper Gold Price Performance Shocks Probability Is Bigger, Whether Paper Gold Prices Temporarily In The Forefront, Currently In Wait-And-See Attitude, And Later Into The Operation.

Gold Cast Net (Http://Www.Cngold.Org) Gold Market, According To The Center Of Beijing Time 22:07, Paper Gold Real-Time Quotes At 250.02 Yuan Per Gram.

Weak Dollar Is Strong, Stronger The Referendum Draws Near To The Pound

On Monday (Sept. 8) Pound Against The Dollar Directly Jump Empty Low Open, Online Shows That Such A Large Gap, Strongly Stimulate The Nerve Of The Sterling Bulls. British Media On September 7, The Latest Public Opinion Polls Show That Support For Scottish Independence Came The Proportion Of The Independent, Lead For The First Time. As The Scottish Referendum, Independent And The Separatist Camp, The Referendum There Is A Big Uncertainty, May Make The Sterling Exchange Rate Fluctuations.

Foreign Exchange Market Is A Troublous Times Recently, The Situation In Russia Continues To Market Nerve, September 8, Eu Officials Said That The European Commission Has Agreed To A Fresh Round Of Strengthening Sanctions Against Russia Rate Agreement, And Work Out The Detailed Sanctions; The European Central Bank Also Had Just Announced A New Round Of Easing; Dollar Interest Rates Expected Worse Constantly Pushing Up The Dollar; Scotland There Is Not Quiet, Make To Independent, Very Great Shock To The Pound.

The Dollar Index

On September 8, The Dollar Index Continued To Rise, U.S. Treasury Yields Higher Dollar Strength, Although Friday’S Payroll Data Is Far Less Than Expected, But Also Difficult To Eliminate Long Dollar’S Enthusiasm, The Market’S Good Performance In The U.S. Economy Is A Quite An Optimistic Attitude.

Yesterday, To Good Economic Data Continues To And The Rest Of The World Economy Contrasts, And The Fed Report Also Showed Its Policy Would Be To Squeeze In Then Surprised Everyone, Direction, This Makes The Market Mood Change, So The Influence Of Bad Non-Farm Payrolls Data On Friday Is Further Proved To Be A Flash In The Pan.

Released On Monday, U.S. Consumer Credit According To The Country’S Consumer Credit During The Month July Unexpectedly Sharp Increase Of $26.01 Billion, Far Beyond The Previous Forecasts From All Walks Of Life, And Hit A Record High Since November 2011. Whereas Consumer Credit Is One Of The Important Barometer Of Economic Activity In The United States. While Disaggregated Data Also Showed That The Credit Card Revolving Credit And Auto Loans And Student Loans And The Revolving Credit Rose Sharply, Heralding The Rise In The Overall Economic Activity, In This Case, The Fed Naturally Have More Reason To Start Raising Interest Rates Ahead Of Schedule, And Investors Are More Willing To Believe In August Non-Farm Payrolls Unexpectedly Only An Increase Of 142000 People Of Bad Data Is Caused By Factors Other Than Routine, For The Overall Economic Outlook.

The San Francisco Fed Report Also Illustrates The Situation On The Day. Officials In The Report Pointed Out That In The Near Future For Quite Some Time, May Be Revealed That The Situation Of Low Volatility In Financial Markets, Investors From All Walks Of Life Are Likely To Underestimate The Speed Of The Fed’S Future Interest Rates. The Fed Could Soon Caught Everybody Expected To Start Much Earlier Than Expected Into The Tightening Cycle.

And U.S. Economic Data Compared With Overseas Markets Also To Strengthen The Expectations Of A Stronger Dollar. In Addition To The Continued Weakness Of The Euro Zone Economic, The British Market Recently Widely Influenced By Scottish Independence Referendum Accident, Once A Referendum On Scottish Independence Ended, So Other People Tend To Separate Areas Within The Eu, Such As Spain’S Catalonia, Could Also Follow Up, This Makes The European Common Currency Movements Under Pressure. And Also Difficult To Optimism In The Asia Pacific Market Economic Performance, China’S Trade Account Data Showed That Import And Export Performances Are Not As Good As Expected, Or Suggest That The Real Estate Market Slump Has Spillover To The Real Economy, While Japan’S GDP Data Continue To Slump, According To Mr Abe Economic Effect Is Not As Good As Expected, This Makes The Dollar In The Global Scope Further Consolidate The Status Of The Monolith.

Technology On The Daily Chart Shows The Dollar Index Rising Trend In Good Condition, The Later Is Expected To Continue To Go Up. Support In 84, Resistance At 84.50.

(The Dollar Index Chart Moves)

Sterling Against The U.S. Dollar

On September 8Th, Sterling Weakness Last Days, Fell To Their Lowest Level In Nearly 10 Months. Intraday Data Is Very Limited, The Scottish Independence Referendum Become The Focus Of The Market. Few British Economic Data To Be Released This Week, As A Result Of The Referendum Date Draws Near, Independent And The Separatist Camp, May Make Sterling Fluctuations.

Pounds In Scotland Independent Approval Rating Above 50% For The First Time, After The Pound Against The Dollar Under Pressure, Always If Scottish Independence, The Pound Will Face A Series Of Questions, And Exchange Rate Are Likely To Fall To 5% – 10%.

The British Media To Do This Weekend In Favour Of Independence Of Scotland’S Approval Rating Rose To 51% According To The Survey, The Pound Jump Empty Opened Sharply Lower On Monday, After The Pound Continued Downward, To The New York Times, The Pound Has Fallen Against The Dollar Days Nearly 200 Points. On September 18, Will Be A Scottish Referendum On Election Day, Because The Current Is For And Against Independent Is Nearly Flat, The Result Of Great Uncertainty, This Will Make The Risk Of Facing A Sterling Swings, Rise Or Fall Of Any One Party Ratings Will Push Sterling Or Crash.

Scottish Independence Referendum Although Polls Support Number More Than Once Against The Number, But The Result Is So Close, So There Is Still Great Uncertainty. This Means That The Row Over The Scottish Independence Referendum And Polls Will Continue To Lead The Sterling In The Short Term, Also Include Other Financial Markets. Even If The Final Independence Referendum Failed, The Pound May Fall Further In The Short Term, Given Was Below 1.6200, 1.60 Can Be Tested In A Short Time.

Data Side, Britain Announced Index Data, The Data In Line With Expectations. Specific Data Showed That British August Halifax Seasonally Adjusted Index Month After 0.1% Growth Rate, Is Expected To Grow By 0.1%.

Technically, The Pound Against The Dollar In Daily Chart, Exchange Rate Downward Trend In Good Condition. Technical Indicators Below The MACD Line And Signal Line Fell To Zero Axis, Explain Price Trends Bearish, And Relative Strength Index RSI (14) Fell To Below The Equilibrium Position, 50 Price Dynamics Bearish. Technically, According To The Pound Against The Dollar Is Expected To Continue To Fall. In Addition, Investors Should Pay Special Attention To The Resistance Of Jump Vacancies Mouth Near 1.6230.

(Sterling Chart Moves)

China’S Response To The European Central Bank Unexpectedly Cut Interest Rates Wants The Eu To Cooperate

On September 5, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang On The European Central Bank Said The Latest Easing Monetary Policy, Wants The Eu To Act Responsibly, The Correct Monetary Policy, In The Same Boat.

On September 4, Local Time, The European Central Bank (ECB) Decision Since The 10Th Of This Month Will All Interest Rates Reduce 10 Basis Points, The Benchmark Interest Rates To 0.05%, To A Record Low. At The Same Time, The European Central Bank Also Issued A Package Of Asset Purchases.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Sudden Move Shocked The Market.

Qin In The Foreign Ministry Regular Press Conference Questions, Said The Eu Is The World’S Major Economies, In The Aspect Of Promoting World Economic Recovery And Growth Have Important Responsibilities.

We Hope That The Eu Can Starting From Promoting Sustainable Global Growth, Act Responsibly, Proper Monetary Policy. Qin Gang Said.

Qin Gang Pointed Out That At The Time Of The Eu Sovereign Debt Crisis, Other Countries To Give The Support And Help In The European Union. This Spirit Of Sharing Weal And Woe, We Should Continue To Be Holding.

On September 4, Local Time, The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Said, This Is The Last Time The European Central Bank To Cut Interest Rates.

Is Worth Pondering, After 6 Months, The European Central Bank Cut The Benchmark Interest Rate From 0.25% To 0.15%, Becoming The First Introduction Of Negative Interest Rates Of The World’S Major Central Banks. Mario Draghi Has Said At The Time, Cut The Lower Limit Has Been Reached.

Draghi Also Announced Two New Project, Will Buy Euro-Denominated Covered Bonds (Covered Bonds) And Asset-Backed Securities (Asset – Anyway: Spreads Over Gse-Backed Loans Securities).

Draghi Refused To Disclose The European Central Bank’S Bond Purchases, But He Said The European Central Bank To Buy Bonds As Well As Providing A Four-Year Loans, In Order To Push The Size Of Its Balance Sheet To 1 Trillion Euros, This Is Since Early 2012 Has Not In Some Level.

The European Central Bank To Above Action To Save The Euro Zone From The Economic Stagnation, Analysts By Surprise.

At Present, The European Central Bank Face Huge Pressure And Revive The Economy Of The Euro Area But In Manufacturing Output Slowed, Inflation Fell To 0.3% In These Five Years Under The Condition Of Low, Draghi Can Display Space Is Not Large.

The BBC Commentator And Editor Robert Perth, Described The Move As Put All Your Eggs In One Basket. , He Argues, The Euro Zone Is Sliding Into A Devastating Deflation Down Channel, But The European Central Bank Can Do? Now It Is Almost Out Of Ammunition.

In Fact, The European Central Bank And A Possible Option Is To Implement Comprehensive QE (Quantitative Easing) By The Federal Reserve, The Central Bank To Buy Sovereign Debt From Creditors.

However, Members Of The European Central Bank (ECB) Divisions Of The Option.

Draghi Said They Talked About Whether To Take Quantity Wide Policy, We Should Do Some Council Members Say More, Others Believe That Should See What Effect, So The European Central Bank Adopted A Compromise.

In View Of The European Central Bank Cut Rates, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Christine Lagarde Said In A Statement Is Very Welcome. But The Bundesbank Against The European Central Bank To Cut Interest Rates.

The European Central Bank’S Surprise Move Has Affected The Market. On September 4, The Euro Fell To $1.2996 Against The Dollar, To Its Lowest Level Since July 2013, Is The First Time Ever Fell To $1.3, And Set The Eurozone Crisis Since The Second Half Of 2011 The Biggest One-Day Fall Since The Most Critical Moment.

Is Affected By The News, European Stocks Rebound, The Stoxx Europe 600 Index Rose 1.1%, Germany’S DAX 30 Index Rose 1%, The French CAC 40 Index Rose 1.7%.

FOMC Meeting The Upcoming The Dollar Is Yet To Be Confirmed

Dollar Index Recent Rally Overwhelming Description, Only Two Months Accumulated Upward By Close To 6%, The Dollar Against A Basket Of Currencies To Rise The Common Factor Is That Monetary Policy Is Expected The Dollar To Form The One-Way, To Attract More Foreign Investors.

The Fed Is Coming To An End In October QE Process, Now The Focus Of The Discussion Is Just The Timing Of The Rates, Whereas Other Countries, The European Central Bank (ECB) And The Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Still Has A Clear Tendency Of Doves, And The British Political Uncertainty Also Makes The Pound Is A Severe Lack Of Attraction. Meanwhile, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Most Economic Data Released To Soft.

Next Week’S FOMC Meeting Expected Early Fermentation

Next Week, The Federal Reserve Will Hold A Meeting Again, Investors’ Expectations Quickly Adjust About Increase Point In The United States. Many Investors Bet That The Interest Rate Difference Between America And The Euro Zone Will Continue To Expand, Which Not Only Has A Negative Deposit Rate And Distance Of Large-Scale Asset Purchases (QE) Is More And More Close.

The Two-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Near To Turn Over More Than Doubled To 0.56% This Year, Its Highest Since May 2011, By Contrast, The Two-Year German Yields Have Dropped To Minus 0.07%, And The Lowest Level Since January 2012.

Some Analysts Believe That The Expansion Of Europe And The United States Treasury Yields Will Create New Trade Opportunities, Namely Because The Fed Will End In October Asset Purchase Plan, This Will Make Us Treasury Yields Rise, Improve The Treasury Bonds Appeal, And Accelerated Flow To The Asset Class, At The Same Time Make The Dollar Exchange Rate Higher.

Treasury Yields Rise And Fall In The Us Stock Market Shows Investors Are Still Digesting The Fed Tightening Monetary Policy Expected Future Process, Even If It Does Not Mean That Market That The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates Soon, But The Monthly Purchase Action Will End In October, And The Authorities Won’T Seek Monetary Stimulus Of The Heart Deeply Views Are Expected To Have

Traders Have Long Overlooked American Prospects To Raise Interest Rates, Bond Information Display Market Is Expected By The End Of 2015 Or 2016 Will Raise Interest Rates, That Is Less Than The Fed’S Own Forecasts. But Anyway, At Least Short-Term Us Treasury Yields In The Past Few Months There Is An Obvious Rise, Even Though The Us New Payrolls Last Week Showed A Sharp Decline, Still Can’T Shake The Rally.

Chicago Futures Brokerage Company R.J. O “Brien Managing Director John Brady Said, Before The Market Is Expected In September The Wording Of The FOMC Meeting The Fed Will Change In Some Hawks, But Poor August Non-Farm Payrolls Figures Released Last Week, After Such A Change Could Be Delayed.

Columbia Management Fund Manager Zach Pandl Said That The Federal Reserve Will Begin To Release In September To Raise Interest Rates Rather Than December Speech, Because If The Fed To Raise Interest Rates In March Next Year, Must Prepare The Market Standing Time. Pandl Think The Fed Will Change The Wording In Next Week’S Meeting Of Possibility Is Very High.

Can The Rebound From The Dollar To Reverse Still Need To Watch

But From The Point Of A Greater Time Period, The Dollar’S Rise Can Be Defined As Inversion, Still Need Further Observation.

From The Perspective Of The Technical Indicators Are The Dollar Too Fast, Known As The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) The Kinetic Energy Of The Index At 76, More Than 70 The Some Traders As A Show A Level Of Assets Rise Too Much, Too Fast; At One Time, September 8, The Index Rose To 84, The Most Overbought Levels Since 2008.

Since 2012, The Dollar Index Has Experienced Several Similar Rebound, But There Are Two Factors Hindered The Rebound As Inversion. A U.S. Economic Recovery Is Weak, There Are Repeated, The Second Is The Euro Zone And Japan Economy Sustained Deflation And Credit Contraction Restricts Its Weaker Currencies.

These Two Factors Are Still The Rebound Constitute A Restriction Against The Dollar. Although The Weak Global Economy Could Not Prevent The Fed Into The Cycle Of Next Year, But Its Negative Effect About The U.S. Economy Will Restrict The Speed And The Fed To Raise Interest Rates. In Addition, The Euro Area And Japan’S Monetary Base And To What Extent Credit Monetary Expansion Can Improve The Impact On The Dollar Index Is Bigger.

European Economy Is Still In Deflation Pressure Increase, The European Central Bank Balance Sheet Continues To Shrink, The Euro Zone’S Credit Markets, Especially The Small And Medium-Sized Enterprise Credit Is Still Almost In The Frozen State. As Long As You Don’T Trigger A Systemic Crisis, Price Deflation, Credit Contraction Can Pose Certain Support To The Euro Instead. The European Central Bank Easing Existing In The Eurozone Credit Expansion. Its Future Launch QE More Likely, But Large-Scale Quantitative Easing Still Has A Lot Of Restrictions On Political And Legal, In The Short Term The Euro Large-Scale QE Is Still The Medium-Term Vision.

The Bank Of Japan Held Temporarily, Further Action Is Likely But Still Take Time. If The Future, The Above-Mentioned Two Aspects Limit Has Been Broken, The Dollar Index Is Expected To Be From Small Rebound To A Sharp Reversal.

This Week Also Has Is Worth To Pay Close Attention To U.S. Data

The Commerce Department On Wednesday (September 10), According To Data Released After Quarter Unexpected Atrophy, The Strong Rebound In The Second Quarter Of Economy. Today, According To The Wholesale Sales Rebounded In July, While Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Fell To A One-Year Low, Economic Opening In The Third Quarter Is Expected To Continue Strong Momentum, And This Provides The Retail Sales Figures Released By The Friday Will Be A Good Forecast.

Review Data, The Associated Press Said Affected By Sales Is Too Strong, U.S. Wholesale Inventories In July Monthly Growth Rate Lower Than Expected And The Inventory Dismal Performance Is Expected To Be Temporary Phenomenon, Because Of Strong Pull Next Month Wholesaler Wholesale Sales Month Rate Increase Inventories Intention; In Addition, The Increase Of Our Stationery Order, Also Reflects The U.S. Industrial Production And The Overall Economic Growth Trend Is Still Positive.

The U.S. Department Of Commerce Will Be In Beijing Time Friday (September 12) 20:30 Released August Retail Sales In The United States, The Market Is Expected To Last Month Rate Unchanged, The Expansion Of The Data Is Expected To Achieve 0.6%.

BK Asset Management Chief Currency Strategist Kathy Lien Said Yesterday, Although The Euro/Dollar On Tuesday (Sept. 8) Posted A Rebound, But The Dollar Is The Foreign Exchange Market Is The Most Beautiful Scenery, And Decide The Future Market Sentiment Data Will Be Released On Friday, Investors Look At Indicators Can Dispel The Haze In Non-Farm Payrolls Last Week.

To Master The Poll To Pounds Before The Referendum Long-Short Game Hard To Take

Foreign Exchange On September 12 – On Thursday, September 11 Pounds Sterling/Dollar Rebound, Days Exchange, Helped By New Internet Poll Boost From After Several Consecutive Trading Day Sharply Under Pressure.

Pollsters Survation Days Unveiled Their Latest Survey: Continuing Majority Against The Number Of Scottish Independence. Specific Investigation, According To Data Of The 1000 Respondents, Against The Number Of Scottish Independence Of Unchanged At 48%, A Toll On Support For The Scottish Independence Accounted For 1% To 1%.

The Two Biggest Banks In Scotland Royal Bank Of Scotland, Lloyds Bank Have Issued A Statement, If The Scottish Independence Choice, Will Be Forced To Transfer Part Of The Business To England. Covet The North Sea Oil And Gas Resources Is Independent Of The Actual Plan, Scotland But Economic Ties And Related Interest Is The Most Powerful Factors But On Scottish Independence.

Now, The Pound Afternoon To Still Full Of Uncertainty. Traders Said The Uncertainty Prompted Nervous Investors Such As Hedge Funds To Hedge Against Sterling Fluctuations. According To The Latest Data, Sterling/Dollar A Cycle Implied Volatility Rose To 11.725%, And High In July 2013. A Cycle Option Expires On September 18.

Many Investors Are Worried About, If The Scottish Independence, Britain Will Face More Debt And The Domestic Market To Reduce The Problem, It Could Hurt The Future Investment. More Debt Could Lead To Britain Ratings Downgrade And Capital Flight.

20140912_8131

OCBC (OCBC Bank), An Analyst At Days, Said The GBP/Usd Is Still Lingering Doubts, It May Simply Be A Dead Cat Bounce, Rather Than The Root Of Bearish Change Tendency. Expected The Pound/Dollar Will Continue To Be Affected By The Scottish Independence Referendum Polls And Drives, Recent Rate Is Expected To Near A Line 1.6190 On Finishing.

On September 12 (Friday) In Early, Sterling/Dollar Levels Near 1.6260. GBP/Usd Continues The Rebound Since Low Of 1.6051 On Wednesday, And Ultimately To Yang Line Closed Up. Within Asia Pacific Time, Sterling/Dollar To 1.6255 For A Volatile Trading Near The Line.

FXStreet Foreign Exchange Analysts Point Out That Supported Sterling/Dollar To 1.6210, The Current Rebound To Near 1.6240. GBP/Usd For A Third Consecutive Days Of Gains, But Still Failed To Fill The Gap Opened This Week In Near 1.6300.

FXStreet Analysts Point Out That The Overbought Oversold Index Shows Neutral Zone At Present, The Trend Index Also Showed A Neutral.

Due To The Latest Poll, The Scottish Referendum Next Week Majority Support Unification. Survation Institutions, According To Data From The Poll In 1000 Respondents Opposed Scottish Independence Than Unchanged At 48%, The Number Of A Toll On Support For The Scottish Independence Accounted For 1% To 1%.

Analysts Said The GBP/Usd A Rise Of Nearly 200 Basis Points From Wednesday’S Low Of 1.6050, Above Resistance Further, In Turn, Can See 1.6270, 1.6290 And 1.6330; Support Levels, In Turn, Can See 1.6215, 1.6150 And 1.6050.

1 Hour Chart, Sterling/Dollar MACD Hovering At 15, And RSI Indicator Located Above 50, At The Same Time Rate Slightly Above The Level Of The Main Moving Average, Suggesting That The Short-Term Bullish.

(Source: GBP/Usd 60 Minutes Figure FX168 Business Network)

Geopolitical Risk Mr Buffett To Say

Nowadays, Almost Every Day About The Situation In Russia And Ukraine, The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Iraq Terrorist Groups And News Grabbing Headlines Of The Ebola Outbreak In West Africa. In The Global Geopolitical Shadow, U.S. Stock Futures Are Dull Moment, Investors Should Do? (More Financial Information, Click Here To Download The Wall Street See App)

Warren Buffett’S Advice Is: Retreat, In Retrospect, The First Looking To The Future Again.

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The Worst Of The Financial Crisis In 2008, Warren Buffett Wrote In The New York Times Column, Remind People Bad Things Always Happen. He Wrote In His Column,

Small History Knowledge: The Great Depression, July 8, 1932, The Dow Jones Index Fell To A Record Low 41 Points. The Economy Continued To Deteriorate Until The President Roosevelt Took Office In March 1933, When The Stock Market Has Rebounded 30%. Or, To Recall The Early World War Ii, The United States In Europe And The Pacific Progress Is Not Very Well. Just Before The Allies Turn Things Around, The Stock Market Hit Bottom In April 1942. Look Again At The Beginning Of 1980 S, The Timing Of Buying Stocks Is The Ravages Of Inflation When Economic Downturn. In Short, Bad News Is A Close Friend Of Investors. With It, You Could Use Low Price To Buy America’S Future Prosperity.

In The Long Run, The Message Will Be Bullish Stock Market. In The 20Th Century, The United States Has Experienced Two World Wars And Several Large-Scale Military Conflict, The Great Depression And A Number Of Times Of Recession, The Oil Price Shocks, Flu, And The President Resigned Because Of The Scandal. Yet The Dow Rose To 66 From 11497.

In 1994, Mr. Buffett In A Letter To Berkshire Shareholders, Wrote

We Will Continue To Ignore The Political And Economic Forecasting, Because They Will Distract The Attention Of Investors And Businessmen, And Expensive. Thirty Years Ago, Nobody Could Have Foreseen The Vietnam War, Wage And Price Controls, Oil Shocks Twice, No One Can Predict The President’S Resignation, The Collapse Of The Soviet Union, And No One Will Know The Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Fell 508 Points, Or 2.8% To 17.4% Yields In Range.

However, Neither The Sensation Of Global Big Events Affect Benjamin Graham’S Investment Criteria, Also Have No Effect On Investors With Reasonable Price To Buy High Quality Assets. Imagine If We Were Unknown To Overcome Fear, Delay Or Change The Capital Allocation, We Will Cost Too Much. In Fact, We Often Can Cause Panic In Big Events When It Reaches The Top, The Most Cost-Effective To Buy And Sell. Fear Is The Enemy Of Zealots, Be A Friend Of The Basic Standards Comply With The Market.

Buffett Told Investors Two Things: First, No Matter How Bad The Situation, The Market Will Withstand Crisis Test; Second, Can Provide High-Quality Long-Term Return Business Is Worth The Investment.

The Stock Market May Be Diving, May Continue To Rise, But Anyway, Patient Investors To The Last Laugh.

Bombshell Obama Will Announce The Strategy Of The Destruction Of ISIS

U.S. President Barack Obama (Barack Obama) On Wednesday (September 10) Night In A Televised Speech At The White House, Announce To Weaken And Destroy In The Islamic State Of Iraq And Syria Activity (ISIS) Militants.

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Barack Obama On Tuesday Afternoon Local Time Met With House And Senate Leaders Of Both Parties, To Predict His Idea And Measure The Reaction Of The Congress. During A Private Dinner On Monday Night, Mr. Obama Asked A Bipartisan Government National Security Official Opinion.

Barack Obama And The Administration Officials Have Repeatedly Said The President Has The Current Air ISIS Authorization For Targets In Iraq. They Declined To Say Whether Mr Obama Will Apply To The Congress For Further Authorization.

Mr Obama Had Said That His Strategy Would Not Be Involved In U.S. Combat Troops On The Ground, Will Be Similar To A Counter-Terrorism Campaign In Recent Years.

Although Florida Democratic Senator Bill Nelson Says Congress Would Authorize The Obama Bombing ISIS Goal In Syria, But Has No Interest In Both Houses Of Congress For A Vote.

By Taking Advantage Of Its $85 Billion Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) Account Money, American Troops Might Be For A Period Of Time Without From Congress For More Money To Continue The Current Operation.

According To Foreign Media, The White House Strategy May Include On Expanding Our Scope Of Air Strikes In Iraq, And Extend To Syria. The United States Is Also Trying To Form An International Coalition, Including Saudi Arabia And Other Local Countries To Curb The Expansion Of The Islamic State.

In Accordance With The State Of Illinois Democrat Congressman Jan Schakowsky Said On Tuesday That If Mr Obama To Congress Authorized, I Think That Will Be Unanimous Support; If He Want Money, I Think It Would Get Congress To Support.

According To ABC News/Washington Post Poll Released Tuesday Showed That Ninety Percent Of Americans Think ISIS Is A Serious Threat To American Interests.

According To The 4-7 In September For The Poll, 65% Of People Support The U.S. Air Strikes Against Sunni Extremists Will Extend To Syria, For The Same Period Last Year More Than Twice As Likely To Support.

Obama At This Time Last Year Was Forced To Withdraw The Authorization On The Syrian Crackdown Application, Because Obviously He Didn’T Support In Congress.

Before This, The British Parliament Rejected The Prime Minister David Cameron (David Cameron) Proposed To Participate In Military Action Against The Syrian Regime.

The Spot Price Of Gold Is Not Urgent To Prevent Short Carelessness

,

2Nd Session In New York Yesterday, Because Of The U.S. Labor Market Closed, Basic Flat Gold Trading, Market Volatility Is Limited, Days After The Highest Price Of Gold Rose To $1289.78 An Ounce, The Lowest $1284.69 An Ounce.

The Price Of Gold More Than In 1289 Out Of 1284 In Early Trading, In And Out Of The Point To Grasp, To This Kind Of Only $5 Profit Depending On Is Not In The Eyes Of Some People, It Would Be Wrong In European 1289 Turn Into Empty, The Plate 1286 Profits To The Sidelines.

Geopolitical Issues Such As Iraq, Ukraine Come And Go, The Gold Price Sensitivity To Its Less And Less, The Gold Market Safe-Haven Demand Is Not The Same As Ever, Geopolitical Issues Can Only Have A Short Drive To The Price Of Gold, But The United States To Raise Interest Rates May Be Lower Price.

Because The Labor Day Holiday Time, So The Financial Calendar Basic Without Too Much Can Lead To Gold And Silver Price Fluctuations. It Is Important To Note That The Spot Gold Trading Market Running More Slowly, For Short Guard Was Still Not Careless.

Physical Gold, Gold ETF Holdings Over The Weekend The 0.6 Tons Of Gold, Holdings Fell To 795 Tons. Gold Etfs Last Underweight Or Sign Bulls Still Shaky, Were Less Likely To Rebound Sharply.

Day Chart: Gold Price Performance In Two Consecutive Days, The Important Support Level Located Above 10 – Day Moving Average, Also Open A More Important Point Below The Trend, Spot Gold 5 Daily Average Line Hook Up Wearing A 10 – Day Moving Average To Form Gold Fork, Cloth Belt Formed Expansion Trend, And Form A Larger Pressure In The Rail, The Kinetic Energy To The Appended Drawings MACD Green Column Still Must Further Observe.

4 Hours Figure: Spot Gold Is Also Did Not Give Not Obvious Direction Of MA5 MA10 Stalemate, MA30 Wear MA60 Fork Into Gold, The Price Range Is Still Mainly In Fiji Today Paula 61.8 To 50.0, 1291-1280 On The Line, From The Above Situation, Gold Price Point Of View Is Given Priority To With Callbacks Do Much Today, Must Be Waiting For The Right Price Point, Don’T Have To Rush To Get In.

Today Gold Prices Rebound Blocked Rail Line In Among, Short Line Or Has The Potential To Fall Down, At This Time Suggest That Investors Pay Attention To Focus On Gold Can Hold Above The Previous Low Support. If The Spot Gold Prices Fell Below The Support Today, Will Start To Continue Downward Space, Suggest Investors Short Then Intervene At This Time.

A Weak Euro Has Not Been Better Investors Should Pay Close Attention To

Foreign Exchange On August 29 – This Week, The Euro Is Still Down On The Way, Just Drop Speed. Same Time On Thursday, The Euro Temporarily To $1.3183, Below $1.3241 Friday. From Weekly To See, At Present, The Euro Has Dropped By 17 Weeks, The Biggest Drop Of 6.01%, This Move Is Very Bleak.

On Friday, The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Delivered A Speech At Jackson Hole In The United States Attitude Obvious Soft, That Raises The Investor Expectations Of Additional Quantitative Easing The European Central Bank, The Expected Line Pressing The Euro, And As Long As The Quantity Policy Hasn’T Announced Wide, So It’S Difficult To Make General Bearish.

Yesterday The German Negative Employment Figures Released By The Accident. In Recent Weeks, The German Rare Announced A Series Of Bad Economic Indicators, Investors For Germany’S Economic Outlook Has Clearly Is Much Less Than The Early To Be Optimistic. Germany Is The Euro Zone’S Economic Backbone, Is Also The Main Aid To The Struggling Economies, For Now, The Backbone Has Own, Obviously A Weight To The Euro.

The European Commission, According To Data Released On Thursday August Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Index Fell To 102.1 From 100.6 In July, Also Not 101.5 As Expected, The Data Clearly Further Suppress The Euro. However, The Euro Zone Will Be Released On Friday August Inflation Data Is The Key, The Current Market Expectations Eurozone Inflation Is Only 0.3% In August, Weaker Than 0.4% In July. The ECB Considers Risk Level Is Less Than 1%, The Bank’S Inflation Target Value Is Close To 2%.

Germany On Thursday Announced The First Price Data, In Theory, The Data On Friday’S Euro Zone Price Slightly Hints, But Germany On Thursday Announced The CPI Rose In August To Zero Growth, Consistent With The Expected, It Won’T Be Able To Make A Prompt.

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Meeting Will Be Held Next Week The European Central Bank Interest Rate, The Market Of The European Central Bank Offering A Large Acquisitions Assets Measures Are Quite Looking Forward To, But I’M Not Sure, Because This Week Three German Finance Minister, Diluting Market About Quantity Of Wide Prospect. In General, If The Eurozone Inflation Figures Released Friday Do Only 0.3% Or Less, So The Meeting On Wide Policy Opportunities Would Soar, So Today The Price Had A Great Influence On The Short-Term Trend Data, Investors Should Pay Close Attention To.

On August 29 (Friday) In Early, Sterling/Dollar Levels Near 1.6585. A Modest Rebound In The Previous Session Pounds, The Highest Reached 1.6613, And The Second Consecutive Trading Day To Yang Line Closed Up. Within Asia Pacific Time, Sterling/Dollar To 1.6585 For A Tight Range.

In The Previous Session Sterling/Dollar Briefly Traded At 1.66000 Above, But Then The Highs. As Mentioned Earlier, The Water Level For The Short-Term Resistance, Rate Any Rebound Is Likely To Be Limited At A Time.

Downward, Sterling/Dollar Is 1.6565, August 28, The Water Level Is Low, If Further Look Down Below The Water Level Is 1.6530/35 (August 25 And 27 Low).

FXStreet Famous Foreign Exchange Website, Analysts Said The Recent Volatility GBP/Usd Is Very Low, Since Early This Week Rate Basic Trading At 80 Basis Points, If The Session To Continue Trading Range On 1.6535/1.6613, This Will Be The Years The Most Narrow Range For A Week.

(Source: GBP/Usd 60 Minutes Figure FX168 Business Network)

Whether The Rise Of The Bric Countries Has Come To An End?

According To England “Financial Times” Reported On September 9, The Brics (BRIC, Brazil, Russia, India And China) Whether The Rise Of Has Come To An End?

From A Certain Level, The Question Now Seems Quite Odd, Especially Considering The BRICS Countries (BRICS, The Above Four Countries And South Africa) Political Leaders Have Recently Reached An Agreement, To Set Up A Joint Development Bank, The Headquarters Is Located In Shanghai. Therefore, The Name Of The Brics Countries Must Keep Going. In Terms Of Global Governance, For Create The Bank, They As A Group Of Influential Could Rise.

However, If The Leaders Of The Brics Countries Have Made The Breakthrough, I’M Sure, Blew The Whistle For The End The Bric Economic Miracle Will More Than Now. So, Let’S Think About Why The Myth Of The Brics May Peak Has Passed.

Some People Have Said, Brazil, Russia, India And China As A Group Have No Truth, The Whole Idea Of Because These Countries In Addition To Have A Large Population, There Is No Other Similarities.

In Particular, In The Four Countries, Two Is A Democratic Country, China And Russia, The Two Countries Are Not. Similarly, Brazil And Russia, The Two Countries Were The Main Commodity Producers, And The Other Two Countries Are Not. Their Per Capita Wealth Levels Are A Far Cry From, Brazil And Russia’S Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Far More Than $10000, Between $7000 To $8000 In China, And India’S Per Capita GDP Is Less Than $2000.

Sceptics Can Also Add An Argument: Brazil And Russia Have Good Development In The Past Ten Years, Because The Price Of Commodities In The Continuously Rising Quickly, Once The Process Come To An End?? The Current Signs Seem To Reflect The Trend?? Brazil And Russia’S Economy Will No Longer. And China Will Inevitably Is Hampered By Its Own Challenge?? Some People Say That This Process Is Happening, Finally Only In India. If India’S Prime Minister Narendra Modi (Narendra Modi) Failed To Elected In May, To India’S Structural Optimistic There Would Be No Much Justified Reasons.

In Fact, The Bric Countries GDP Growth Slowed Sharply In This Decade. In Ten Years From 2001 To 2010, China’S GDP Growth Rate Of 10.5%, And 2011-2013, The Figure Is 8.2%, India Slowed From 7.6% To 4.6%, From 3.6% To 2%, Brazil And Russia Has Slowed From 4.6% To 3%. Therefore, The Growth Rate Was Reduced By Four Countries, And The Four Countries To Concern A Lot.

However, Let’S Think About Seriously. Because Of China’S Vast Size, A Weighted Average Of The Growth Rate Of The Bric Countries Since 2011 To 6.5%. This Number Is Lower Than 7.9% In A Decade, But Higher Than That In The Two Decades Before. Now China’S Economy Is 1.5 Times As Many As Three Other Combined, Thus The Influence Of China’S Overall Growth Rate For The Bric Countries. Related To This, The Brics’S Total GDP Now Closer To America’S GDP, And By The End Of 2015, According To The Dollar At The Time, The Four Total GDP And The GDP Of The United States.

Therefore, Even If The Brics Growth Slowed, Its Influence In The Economy Is Still On The Rise. In Dollar Terms, This Ten Years So Far, The Brics Contribution To World Economic Growth Is More Than Three Times In The United States.

Therefore, The Idea Of The Brics Already No Longer Important Is Not To Be Trusted. The Growth Of The Bric Countries Really Slowed Down, But This For Anyone Who Pay Close Attention To Them Is Not A Surprise. This Ten Years So Far, In Fact, A 6.5% Increase In The Bric Countries, The Numerical 0.1% Lower In 2010 Than I Expected. The Point Is, The Faster Than I Expected Growth In China, Before I Forecast Growth Of 7.5%, And China’S Real Growth Rate Of 8.2%

This Makes Up For The Other Three Relatively Weak Growth, The Growth Rate Of The Three Kingdoms Is Lower Than I Expected, Especially Brazil And Russia, And India Is Also To A Certain Extent, Disappoint Me. So, This Ten Years So Far, The Myth Of The Brics Is Totally Supported By China, This Assertion May Be More Accord With The Facts. Without The Role Of China, People May Have More Reason To Be Disappointed. From This Perspective, If The Chinese Like Many Skeptics Might Expect, Due To A Sharp Slowdown In The Bric Countries Economic Myths Will Lose Its Appeal.

This Train Of Thought Of The Problem Is, Although China Faces Some Big Challenges, But Policymakers Is To Respond To These Challenges. , For Example, How Many Readers Can Remember Which Country Such As China Deliberately Try To Stop House Prices Rise, And Is Likely To Succeed? A Few Years Ago, People Worry About Beijing And Shanghai Real Estate Bubble, But They Are No Longer Discussing This Problem.

Why Is That? Because This Problem Has Been Eased Through Policy. Sceptics Worry That Now Is The So-Called Second – And Third-Tier Cities Of Bubble, But Still I Think Policymakers May Solve These Problems, Especially Considering The Future There Will Be Many Migrants Move To Cities And Towns, Urban Residents And Enjoy All The Rights, Including The Ownership Of The House. In My Opinion, China’S Growth Rate Will Reach 7.5% This Year.

I Think Brazil And Russia Are Facing Some Challenges, But Did Not Take Measures To Deal With The Two Countries, The Core Of The Response Is To Reduce The Dependence On The Commodities Cycle, Improve The Competitiveness Of The Private Sector.

India’S Left. In Modi Election Victory, I Think There Is Reason To Predict India Will Occur Significant Policy Improvement, I Am Not Completely Ruled Out In This Decade To Reach India I Expected The Possibility Of A 7.5% Growth Rate. Admittedly, This Will Be Difficult, But India Is Likely In The Second Half Of This Decade The Growth Rate Of More Than 7.5% For Development, Is Likely To Be Faster Than China’S Growth.

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So, The Brics’ Economic Myths Ended? I Don’T Think So, Even If They Don’T Have To Create Common Development Bank, The History Of The Important Decision, I Will Not Change This View. But This Decision Will Lead To What, Let’S Wait And See.

The Australian Dollar Tumbled Who Is The Prime? Focus On The Fed’S Decision Next Week

In Summary: The Australian Dollar On Friday (12 September) To Five-Month Lows, Has Fallen More Than 3% This Week At The Same Time, The Reason Is That Market Volatility Rises, So Investors Choose Smooth Financing In U.S. Dollar Carry Trade. A Large Share Of Commodities Falling Pressure Comes From The Rising Dollar, As Investors Expect The Federal Reserve (FED) Policy Meeting Next Week May Be Raised The Risk Of More Tough Talk. The World’S Major Central Bank Monetary Policy Differences Is Causing The Rise In Foreign Exchange Market Volatility. The American Economy Recovered Steadily Make The Fed More Close To Raise Interest Rates, And Once Interest Rates Would Boost The Appeal Of The Dollar. An Asian Currency Traders Said On Thursday Evening, The Australian Dollar Suffered A Huge Selling Pressure, And Is Twice The Average Volume, While Asian Hedge Funds Dominate The Aud/Usd Selling. BNP Paribas (BNP), A Strategist At Phyllis Papadavid, According To The Australian Dollar/Target Price Fell To $0.9050 After The Bank Has Put On September 4, During The Australian Dollar Short Positions In Profits, Profit Of 3.2%. Papadavid Said, Supported By The Government Bond Yields, The Dollar Index Is Expected To Continue To Strengthen. Australia’S Recent Economic Data Have Some Uneven, The Australian Dollar Could Further Weaken, Although Australia The Fed Would Keep Interest Rates Unchanged At The Current Stage.

Focus, Usefulness:

Asian Equities

The Euro Zone 7 Chinese Rose After The Callback Trade Account

The United States In September The New York Fed Manufacturing Employment Index

The Main Currency Movements Analysis:

The Euro: While The Euro/Dollar Failed To Hold Above 1.2934, But Biased Towards Short-Term Technical At The Bottom Of The Form. 1 Hour Online Also Is Head And Shoulders Bottom Reversal Pattern. If The Exchange Rate Fell Below 1.2883 Support, Formed In The Past Few Sessions Technology Form To Put Down The Triangle Form, Hitting A Target At 1.2740.

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Yen: Focus On 106.64 Key Support. Wedge At The Top Of The Dollar/Yen Has Now Arrived In Rise, Therefore, Increased Risk Under Short-Term Fix. In Addition, Due To Short Yen Positions Spurt, The Dollar/Yen Into Overbought Area At Present, Under The Short Line Or Has A Callback. If The Session Focused On 106.64 Key Support, The Support Is Lost And The Closing Price Below The Support, Or Form, Line Reversal Bearish Pattern, And Trigger A Retreat.

The Australian: Because At The Beginning Of This Week Has Already Technical Fell Below The Key Neck Line, Technical Bearish. If The Exchange Rate Rebound, The Bank At 0.8965 At The Bottom Of The Head And Shoulder. If The Exchange Rate On Small Repair Can Be Regarded As Wel Shorting Opportunities. If 0.8965 Support Lost Cause Losses To 0.8660 (So Far) Low In 2014.

Foreign Exchange Through Dollars In U.S. Debt On Gold Who Will Save The Gold Price

Fundamentals:

On Friday (September 12) And The City In Early Trading, The International Spot Gold Trading At $1240.17 An Ounce, Gold Retreat This Week, The Market Is Generally Believed That The Biggest Reason Is That The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Expected, The Federal Reserve (Beijing Time) At 2 Will Be Released On September 18, Interest Rate Decisions Will Indicate The Direction To The Market, But Before That Ukraine Areas The Situation Is Still Worthy Of Attention, Although In Eastern Ukraine Seems A Cease-Fire, But The Eu Still Choose Sanctions Against Russia, But Russia’S Reaction Is Besides Moderate Resistance Eu Sanctions, But Russia Said Let Will Do Our Best To Ensure That The Path Of Peaceful Development Of Ukraine.

On Thursday, September 11) Gold Prices Fell Again, Fell To Their Lowest Level In Seven And A Half Months, Once Key Levels Fall Below $1240 An Ounce, The Highest Level In 14 Months Dollar Became The Greatest Threat To The Gold Market, And The Situation In Ukraine Took Some Gold As A Safe Haven Demand. On Friday, After Open, Fluctuations In The Price Near $1240 An Ounce.

Platinum Metals In A Large Amount Of Profits Have Prices Also Fell, While Silver Fell For A Second Straight Day, The Lowest Level To 14 Months.

U.S. President Barack Obama Is 9 PM Beijing Time 11 A Televised Speech, Comprehensively Elaborated The United States Against Extremist Islamic Countries (ISIS) Strategic Plan, Will Send 475 Troops To Iraq Again, Will Also Air ISIS Lair – Strongholds In Syria. In Addition, To Increase Aid To Fight The Forces Of The Islamic State Of Iraq And Syria.

In Addition, Obama Also Said That The United States Will Increase In Russia’S Financial, Energy, And Defense Industries Such As Sanctions, In Response To The Illegal Actions In Ukraine. Obama Said In A Statement, The New Measures Will Further Weaken Russia’S Economy And Lead To Its Isolated In Politics, The Specific Content Of Sanctions Will Be Announced On Friday.

But Even If Mr Obama’S Speech Didn’T Also Can Bring What Safe-Haven Demand For Gold.

International Spot Gold Four Early September 11 () New York Time Extended Losses Of More Than 1%, And Refresh Low Of $1235.70 An Ounce Seven Months, By The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Expected Rising, Geopolitical Situation Has Also Cooled At The Same Time.

The World’S Leading Brokers Which Foreign Exchange Hedge Fund Sales Executive Greg Matwejev Said On Thursday, In View Of The “Golden Week” Chart 3 Years Second Pseudo Breakthrough, Is Expected To Be In The First Quarter In 2015 Prices Could Fall To $900 An Ounce.

Matwejev Points Out, From The Point Of The Weekly Chart Below, Gold Had Breakthrough In Late January 2011, A Record High Of $1920.50 After The Downward Trend Line, And On March 21, Hit A Year High Of $1391. However, This Has Worked With Artifacts In August 2012, The Breakthrough Of Extremely Similar, Means That Afternoon Gold Will Continue To Fall.

Matwejev Thinks, As The Days Of Gold Prices Fell Below $1240 In Three Months Low Support, Coupled With 50, 100 And 200 – Day Moving Average Is A Bearish Signals, Years, Hitting A Low Of $2013 In 1180 Is Inevitable, Even Will Open Further Fall To $900 In Space.

A Negative: The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Expected

Next Week On September 16 And 17, The Fed Will Hold The FOMC Meeting Again, Investors’ Expectations Quickly Adjust About Increase Point In The United States On Thursday (September 11) Industry Investment Institutions, According To The Report Published In The Economic Experts Believe The Fed Will Have A 55% Chance From April To June In 2015 Between The Benchmark Interest Rate Level 0-0.25% Of The Current Low Level Began To Increase.

Report Also Showed That All The Fed Is Expected To Have A 75% Chance Of Before The End Of September In 2015 To Start Raising Interest Rates, In 2015, The Probability Of Rate Is As High As 90% By The End Of The Year. And Expect The U.S. Benchmark Interest Rates Will Rise To 1.00% By The End Of 2015, At The End Of 2016 Will Rise To 3.50%.

Chicago Futures Brokerage Company R.J. O “Brien Managing Director John Brady Said, Before The Market Is Expected In September The Wording Of The FOMC Meeting The Fed Will Change In Some Hawks, But Poor August Non-Farm Payrolls Figures Released Last Week, After Such A Change Could Be Delayed.

Columbia Management Fund Manager Zach Pandl Said That The Federal Reserve Will Begin To Release In September To Raise Interest Rates Rather Than December Speech, Because If The Fed To Raise Interest Rates In March Next Year, Must Prepare The Market Standing Time. Pandl Think The Fed Will Change The Wording In Next Week’S Meeting Of Possibility Is Very High.

Negative 2: $High Stabilization

On Thursday, The Dollar Index Continued To Hover Near A 14-Month High, Recent Rally Overwhelming Description, Only Two Months Of Accumulative Total Uplink Rate Close To 6%, This Week The Dollar Against A Basket Of Currencies On Track For Its Zhou Lianyang 9. The Common Factor Is The Rising Dollar, Monetary Policy Expected The Dollar To Form The One-Way, Make It To Attract More Foreign Investors.

The Fed Is Coming To An End In October QE Process, Now The Focus Of The Discussion Is Just The Timing Of The Rates, Whereas Other Countries, The European Central Bank (ECB) And The Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Still Has A Clear Tendency Of Doves, And The British Political Uncertainty Also Makes The Pound Is A Severe Lack Of Attraction. Meanwhile, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Most Economic Data Released To Soft.

Some Analysts Believe That The Expansion Of Europe And The United States Treasury Yields Will Create New Trade Opportunities, Namely Because The Fed Will End In October Asset Purchase Plan, This Will Make Us Treasury Yields Rise, Improve The Treasury Bonds Appeal, And Accelerated Flow To The Asset Class, At The Same Time Make The Dollar Exchange Rate Higher.

Jpmorgan’S Foreign Exchange Analyst Niall O “Connor (September 10) Said On Wednesday That Beauty Refers To Break Through Resistance At 83.00/40 Last Week, This Means That The Dollar Index Downward Trend Since 2013 In July To 76.4% Retracement Was Breakdown. Beauty To The Period From 2010 To 2013 High Pressure Line Of Attachment In Solved Last Week, This Means That The Dollar Index In The Next Few Weeks, There Is The Risk Of Further Upward.

From The Perspective Of The Technical Indicators Are The Dollar Too Fast, Known As The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) The Kinetic Energy Of The Index At 76, More Than 70 The Some Traders As A Show A Level Of Assets Rise Too Much, Too Fast; At One Time, September 8, The Index Rose To 84, The Most Overbought Levels Since 2008.

Three: Negative Inflation Falling

As A Measure Of The Inflation Index, The Five-Year Breakeven Inflation (Breakeven Plus Rate) Has Been As Low As 1.8068, This Week To The Lowest Level For More Than A Year. The Index Is Based On The Five-Year Real Bond Yields And The Five-Year Inflation-Linked Bonds Yield Difference Is Worth.

South Africa’S Standard Bank (StandardBank) Recently Said In A Report, The Five-Year Inflation Related Government Bond Yields Move Higher (I.E., The Real Interest Rate), Is Now In Early July This Year – Rose To Nearly 0.5% – 0.1%. In Addition, The United States Bond Market’S Five-Year Breakeven Inflation (Breakeveninflationrate) Close To The Lowest Level In More Than A Year, Suggests A Recent Us Real Interest Rates Is Driven By The Decline In Inflation Expectations.

The Bank Believes The Recent U.S. Real Interest Rates Higher Again, Largely Because Of Lower Inflation. In Other Conditions Are Relatively Neutral Environment, Real Interest Rates In The Us Is Clearly Negative For Gold, And Treasury Yields To Rise, But Also Limits The Gold The Rebound In Space.

Four: Negative Situation In Russia And Ukraine Cooling

In Eastern Ukraine Had On Friday, September 5Th) Formally Signed A Cease-Fire Agreement. Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws (Petro Poroshenko) On Wednesday (September 10), Said Most Of The Russian Army Have Retreated From The East, It Also Makes Peace Hopes To Further Increase.

According To Eu Diplomats Said On Thursday (September 11), The European Union Sanctions Against Russia’S New Measures Will Be Effective On Friday, Including Will Ban On Five State-Owned Russian Bank Loans And Three Russian Defence Firms, Expand The Export Of Dual-Use Goods To Russia Restrictions, And Increase Of 24 Russian Citizens, Including A Travel Ban And Asset Freeze Sanctions.

The Russian Kremlin Spokesman On Thursday, However, Responded That Although The Eu Has Already Make A Decision Will Implement A New Round Of Tougher Sanctions For Russia, But Russia Will Fulfill The Promise, To Do More To Help Promote Adherence To Ukraine To Perform After The Peace Plan.

This Month In August As The Us ISM Manufacturing Index Rose To A Three-Year High Of 59.0 Exacerbated The Trend Reversal. The Rising Dollar, And The ISM To Good Cases, Gold (1249.77, 0.72, 0.06%), And Other Commodities Tend To Be Negative.

Make A Metal Pressure Is Another Factor The Weakness Of The Euro (1.2911, 0.0005, 0.04%). When The Euro Fell, Also Have A Negative Impact On Gold, Because For European And Other Dollar-Denominated Gold Is More Expensive Than Americans. Recently The Euro Currency Against The Dollar Hit A 14-Month Low.

In Addition, Although So Far This Special September Fell Less Than Expected, But The Long Term Remains Bullish On Gold And Precious Metals Funds (USERX) And Minerals (UNWPX).

Movements Of The Price Of Gold And The Dollar Index Has Bigger Relations, But It Is Important To Note That The Contrast Of Gold And Dollar Dish In The Same Direction, The Amplitude Of Gold And The Dollar Index Rise And Fall Is Not The Same, Gold Only Exists As A Commodity In The Market, But Relative To The Dollar Index Has More Effect, The Dollar Is Also Affected By More Factors, The Other Of These Factors Do Not Affect The Price Of Gold, So The Dollar Is Only A Reference For Aspect Of The Gold, The Shape Of The Gold And The Index Is Presented Positive Correlation In Most Of The Time.

Another Russian Official Comments, Or Will Be Carried Out In Second-Hand Imports To The Eu Launched Retaliatory Sanctions.

Russian Officials Said More Moderate, On September 11, The Russian Kremlin Spokesman Pointed Out That Although The Eu Has Already Make A Decision Will Implement A New Round Of Tougher Sanctions For Russia, But Russia Will Fulfill The Promise, To Do More To Help Promote Adherence To Ukraine To Perform After The Peace Plan.

Spokesman Said, Although The Lack Of Constructive Action Measures Taken By The European Union After The Disappointing, But Russia Will Do Its Best Efforts To Help Ukraine Road Map Implemented, And At The Same Time, Strive To Make Ukraine The South-East Further Stable General Situation. Earlier, The European Union Has Banned Russian Energy Companies In The Eu Market For Direct Financing,

The Russian Foreign Ministry Said, However, Indicates That The Eu Introduced The Practice Of New Sanctions On Russia, Ukraine Is Betrayed The Spirit Of Peace Plan.

Technical:

Next Week On September 16 And 17, The Fed Will Hold The FOMC Meeting Again, Investors’ Expectations Quickly Adjust About Increase Point In The United States On Thursday Published Industry Investment Institutions, According To The Report Has A 55% Chance Of Economic Experts Believe The Federal Reserve In 2015 From April To June Will Be The Benchmark Interest Rates By The Current 0-0.25% Of Ultra-Low Began To Ascend.

Charge From The Date Line, Gold Line, Grasps The Big Yin Column Of Shadow, Gold Prices Fell Four Consecutive Days This Week. Line Cloth Belts Continue To Speak, Down Days Gold Fell Sharply, In The Early Period Of The 1240-1242 Key Support With Almost No Resistance, The Price Of Gold Is Also Easily Refresh Low Nearly Seven Months. This Week From The Date Line, Spot Gold, Line 4 Yin, Date Line Has Been MA5 Average Repression, From The Current Gold, MA5 Average Still Effective Suppression, Daytime MA5 Pressure Position In 1245.

In The Short Term, The Gold Market From The First Four Trading Day This Week Is The Yin Fell On Friday, Gold Is Bound To Have A Small Rally.

From The Technical Side, The Gold Market, Arrange Line Cycle Is Short, Each Cycle Averages Are Down, And Early Support Dealt With 1240-1242, Short Momentum Strong, Spot Gold Below Support Continues To Focus On 1240, If Today Closed Below $1240 For The Gold, So Gold Will Again Test $1210-1200.

Overall, Today’S Gold Price Trend Is Still Short, Because Today Is On Friday, On The Day Of Weekly Recommends That Investors Risk Control, Mainly On Rallies Empty Operation.

Foreign Exchange Through Key Week The Federal Reserve Currency In Big Resolution Not To Be Missed

Fundamentals:

Although This Week Is Not In The Traditional Sense Of The Super Weeks, But The Risk May And Riches. The 9 Month For Resolution, Scottish Independence Referendum, The Anglo-Australian Central Bank Meeting Minutes, Many Important Data And Political And Economic Events. For Investors, And If You Miss The Golden Nine Silver Ten Two Weeks Before The Hot Streak, So Absolutely Not Let You Miss Again This Week.

The Dollar Index Monday Is Hovering Near 84.20. Market Participants In The Fed’S Decision This Week And The Scottish Referendum Before The Two Most Significant Risk Events Were Cautious. At Present, The Investment Bank Analysts Widely Expect The Fed’S Decision Is Likely To Have Major Policy Wording Change, A Report Is That The Fed Action (Delete To Keep Interest Rates For A Long Time) By An Average Of 50%; As For Scottish Referendum, The Latest Polls Show This Weekend Against Independence Camp Still Lead Temporarily, But The Two Sides Support Is Still Relatively Close, The Final Result Is Still In Suspense. Can Say, In The Shadow Of The Two Big Risk Events, This Week, Foreign Exchange And Precious Metals Market Is Expected To Usher In The Rounds Of The Storm.

From Inflation To The Labour Market, From The Scottish Independence Referendum To The Bank Of England’S Meeting Minutes, The Important Data And Political And Economic Events This Week. The United States, The Federal Reserve’S Latest Monetary Policy Decision, Industrial Output And Inflation Data Become The Most Anticipated This Week. At The Same Time, The Euro Zone, Including CPI And Sentiment, The Data Will Help Investors Judge The European Central Bank’S Next Move.

Scottish Independence Referendum Will No Doubt Dominate This Week Related To The British Capital Asset Markets, But Including The Bank Of England In August September Meeting Minutes And The CPI And Other Data Is Also Worth Attention. In September Of The Bank Of England Left Its Benchmark Interest Rate Of 0.5%, But Since August Meeting Minutes Showed Two MPC Support To Raise Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points Since The Bank To Become The World’S First Rate Has Increased The Probability Of Major Central Banks.

There Is No Doubt That This Week Will Be Released By July, August And The Unemployment Rate To Three Months The ILO Unemployment Data Object Will Be The Decision Makers Pay Close Attention To. Recently Some Of The Labour Market Data Were Mixed, The Unemployment Rate Fell But Lackluster Wage Growth.

Last Week, A Dose Of Medicine That Appeared On The International Financial Market, Is The European Central Bank Cut Interest Rates And Quantitative Easing Of The Combination. Although The Market Had Expected, But So Quickly Opened A Potent Medicine Or Let The Market.

Data Show That While The Eurozone Economy For The Fourth Quarter In A Row Moderate Growth, But In The Second Quarter Of This Year And The First Quarter, Presents The Zero Growth. And, The Indications Are That The Third Quarter Of This Year The Euro Zone’S Cyclical Growth Power Has Been Weakened, The European Economy Will Once Again Stalled. In This Background, On September 4, The European Central Bank Announced That Reduce 10 Basis Points, All The Interest Rates And Announced Start Buying Assets Including Asset-Backed Securities. Such A Loose Monetary Policy, Revealed Some Of The European Central Bank, The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Acknowledged That The Move To Consider The Overall Weaker, The Outlook For The Eurozone Inflation Expectations In The Euro Zone Economic Recovery Of Steam. But These Measures Can Really Save The European Economy, Remains To Be Seen.

Compared With The European Economy, The U.S. Economy Continue To Rapid Development. On September 3, The Commerce Department, According To Data Released By The Transportation Equipment Orders Increased Significantly, The Influence Of U.S. Factory Orders In July Hit A Record High Since 1992. On September 4, The Institute For Supply Management, According To A Report Released In August U.S. Service Sector Activity To Record High Since January 2008. Although The United States Department Of Non-Farm Jobs In August Fell To Its Lowest Level Since This Year, But The Job Market Overall Trend Is Still Good. The Fed’S Beige Book Released By The Since Early July, The Fed’S Subordinate 12 Regional Reserve Banks All Areas Under The Jurisdiction Of Moderate Economic Growth. As The Economy Continues To Improve, The United States Is Likely To End Asset Purchases At The End Of October This Year, Which Means That Lasted More Than Five Years Of Quantitative Easing Will Exit In An All-Round Way. At The Same Time, Interest Rates Have Also Been Under Discussion, Just Time Time Has Not Yet Form A Unified Opinion.

The Opposite Of Monetary Policy Shows That Europe And The United States Economy Is Currently In Should State, Its Economic Recovery Out Of Sync, Will Increase The Complexity Of The Global Economic Recovery. Not Only That, The Differentiation Of The European And American Monetary Policy Will Also Have Important Influence To The Flow Of International Capital, To This, Relevant Economies Should Be Vigilant And Preparation.

This Week, The Federal Reserve (FED) Will Have Is Probably One Of The Most Important Meeting Of This Year, Because The FED Will Discuss Whether To Adjust Interest Rates Forward-Looking Guidance Completely, But Also Try To Determine The Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy Exit Plan. Remains To Be Seen Whether The Fed In The Two Aspects To Make Any Decision.

The Fed’S Interest Rate Decision Will Be In Beijing Time, Announced On Thursday, September 18, 2:00 In The Fed Will Exit The Large-Scale Asset Purchases, Particularly Eye-Catching This Meeting.

Investors Will Be Carefully Read Every Word The Fed’S Policy Statement, In Search Of Clues About To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time More Than Eight Years Of Time. Any Important Adjustment Policy Statement, Could Trigger A Financial Market Volatility, As Investors According To The Prospect Of The Benchmark Interest Rate To Adjust The Position Of The United States.

The United States Announced A Series Of Recent Economic Data Is Strong, Has Prompted The Fed Chairman Yellen (Janet Yellen) And Other Officials Acknowledged That Increases Time Is Earlier Than Estimated The Possibility Of A Couple Of Months Ago. But The United States On August Employment Growth Data Unexpected Weakness, Provided Some Buffer Space For The Fed’S Decision.

TD Securities (TD Securities Analyst Gennadiy Goldberg Said: Discussion Itself Is To Evidence Of A Fundamental Change Of Monetary Policy.

If The Fed, He Argues, To Give Up, Keep Interest Rates Near Zero For Quite Some Time, Means It Is Likely To Raise Interest Rates As Early As Next Year 3 Month, The Earlier Than The Current Most Investors Expected For Several Months.

At Present, The Industry Well-Known Analysts Have Said Recently, The Federal Reserve Or Revealed In This Week’S Policy Meeting Resolution, Made After The End Of The Current Quantitative Easing (QE) Bond Buying Action After Quite Some Time To Keep Interest Rates Meet On Monday Near Zero Wording Will No Longer Continue, And This Will Be For Its Later In June 2015 When Paving The Way To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time.

Jp Morgan Economist Michael Feroli (Michael Feroli) In A Note To Investors Report That Made The Prophecy, And There Are More And More Analysts Expect The Fed On 16-17 Policy After The Meeting, Could Throw A Tougher Policy.

In A Few Days Before, Feroli Had Expected, The Federal Reserve Or In This Week’S Meeting Will Have A 50% Chance To Sublimate Language For Quite Some Time, But By Friday (12 September), But He Said, According To The Market From All Walks Of Life Already Prepare Cases, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen At A Press Conference After The Meeting As Long As Use Some Mild Words, Perhaps Can Get Away With.

At Present The Market Investors’ Expectations For The Fed Is Vital. The Fed Is Trying To Smooth The Implementation Of Tight Monetary Policy For The First Time In Eight Years, And To Avoid In The Process Caused By Stock Market Bond Market Slump And Consequences Such As Market Panic. After The Federal Reserve Bank Of San Francisco, Published A Paper, According To Market Expectations For The Fed To Keep Interest Rates Low Time Than The Fed Itself.

According To The Latest Survey Data, However, Analysts Have To Raise Interest Rates Is Expected To Advance The Schedule, The Current Expectations The Fed Will Mostly In The Second JiSheng Rate Next Year. Previously, Since December 2008, The Federal Reserve Will Keep Overnight Interest Rates Near Zero, And Buy Trillions Of Dollars Of Bonds, In Order To Hold Down Borrowing Costs And Boost Investment And Hiring. The Fed Is Expected To Officially Ended At The Meeting At The End Of October The Purchase Plan.

This Week August Industrial Output And The CPI Data Be The Highlight Of The United States. August PMI Data Showed The U.S. Manufacturing Sector Is In The Midst Of The Best In Four Years Of Expansion, Analysts Will Be On Industrial Production Data For Verification. At The Same Time, Industrial Output In August Will Herald A 4.2% In The Second Quarter Of The U.S. Economy Can Strong Growth In The Third Quarter To Continue.

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch, Bank Of America Merrill Lynch) Chief Economist Michael Says Hanson, The Federal Reserve Will Not Change The Wording, But This Would Be A Very Close. Because The Market Will Advance The Fed To Abandon The Practice Of Language As A Rate Increase Cues, So I Think They Do Not Want To Suggest That Policy Changes.

But Strategist At Columbia Management Zach Pandl Said: If The Federal Reserve To Give Up A Long Time The Wording Will Be Pregnant With Significant Risks. In March, If They Keep The Wording To Raise Interest Rates Doors Will Be Closed. By Giving Up The Practice Of Language, The Fed Will Keep This Option For May, But It Is Also Uncertain.

Fed Officials Have Said, Is Expected To Not Raise Interest Rates By 2015. In Addition To The Already Reduced Asset Purchase Clearly Expressed, The Meeting On Tuesday And Wednesday That Won’T Change The Policy.

But Fed Officials Will Release The Latest Economic And Interest Rate Forecast, And The Predicted Time Increased To 2017. These Forecasts, Coupled With The Slight Variations Of The Fed’S Statement After The Meeting, Could Change The Fed Will After How Long And How Fast Speed Rate Expectations.

Recently, The Fed’S Policy Stance Officials At The Ends Of The Spectrum, Are Strongly Called For The Fed’S Time In Discussing About Raising Interest Rates For The First Time, Don’T Again With Those By The Cleveland Fed Chairman Ms. (Loretta Mester) Called A Hackneyed Words.

The Fed Said Since March Is Expected At The End Of The Program And There Are Quite A Long Period Of Time Between Raising Interest Rates For The First Time. Ms. Last Week Said: “I Believe It Is Time For The Fed To Making Forward-Looking Guidance.

Technical:

From A Technical Point Of View, The Dollar Still Save High Range, Means That The Dollar Index Above 84.50 Resistance Short-Term Breakthrough Will It Be A Problem. But The $Index Chart 5, 10 And 20 Daily Average Lines Continue To Long, Strong Support On The Formation Rate. Short-Term Rally Has Accumulated Many Profit Dish, Back To Continue To Rise Again After Adjustment Principle Is Also Very Normal. Characteristics Of A Strong Dollar Is In The Back, If Am Back Through Large, Built On The Top Of The $Will Be Periodically. Today The Dollar Index Rising Short-Term Resistance At 84.35-84.40, Short-Term Important Resistance At 84.50-84.55. Callback Support At 84.05-84.10 Today, An Important Support In 83.90 83.95. The Euro/Dollar Rebounded Friday Breakthrough 1.2950-1.2960 Range Resistance, But Short Form Has Not Been Reversed. Average System Continue To Arrange Short, Pressure On The Formation Rate. Rebound Trend Belongs To Rebound Properties Of Europe And The United States Now, Key Resistance At 1.2990-1.3000, Whether Can Effective Breakthrough, About Whether To Europe And The United States Can Continue To Rebound.

The Dollar Index: In 84.55-84.05 Range Cast High Low Suck (First Rose In Place To Sell, First Fall In Place Buy), Effectively Break A 20 Stop-Loss Point.

Euro/Dollar: In 1.2990-1.2910 Range, Effectively Break A 30 Point Stop-Loss, Target The Upper Limit Of The Interval.

GBP/Usd: Can Be Sold In 1.6285-1.6205 Range, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Lower Limit Of Target In Range.

The Dollar/Swiss Franc: Can At 0.9365-0.9315 Range To Sell, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 25 Points, The Lower Limit Of Target In Range.

Dollar/Yen: Can Be Sold In 107.50-106.80 Range, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 30 Points, The Target In The Lower Limit Of Interval.

Aud/Usd: In 0.9090-0.9010 Range To Buy, Effectively Break A 30 Point Stop-Loss, Target The Upper Limit Of The Interval.

Usd/Cad: Can The Purchase Of A 1.1120-1.1050 Range And Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Target In The Interval Of The Upper Limit.

The Strong Data The Euro Against The Dollar On The Sea

Foreign Exchange On August 29 – Europe And The United States Many Order On Economic Data On Thursday, U.S. Data Is Still Not Changed Its Strong Momentum, And All The Data In The Euro Area Is Not Too Much Of A Window, Make The Strength Of The Dollar And The Euro Continued Fragmentation. Germany’S Unemployment Rate And CPI, As By This And Should Be Expected, The Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Index Fell, After The Euro Against The Dollar Rebound, Fell From 1.3220 High. The United States Announced The Second Quarter GDP, Initial Jobless Claims Last Week, Existing-Home Sales Were Better Than Expected, The Dollar Index From Lower Near 82.32 Rebound Back, Refresh The Highs Of 82.59. Euro Dollar Strength Of Casting, Short-Term There Is No Dollar Negative News, The Weakness Of The Euro Is Hard To Shake.

In August, According To Data Released German CPI Initial Annualised Growth Of 0.8%, In Line With Market Expectations, The Former Value Is 0.8%, 8 Chinese Rose After The German Unemployment Rate Is 6.7% In Line With Expectations And The Former Value, But Only After The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Growth, 2000 People, Market Expectations For 50 Million. Eurozone Released August Economic Sentiment Index Is 100.6, 101.5, Before The Value Of 102.1. Influenced By The Factors Such As Geopolitical Conflict, The Euro Zone’S Recent Economic Weakness As A Whole. Data, The Euro Against The Dollar In The Afternoon The Plate Below The 1.3200 Mark, Late New York Times Beautiful, The Data Of The Euro Against The Dollar Continues To Fall.

Data From The Us Is Specific For: The United States In The Second Quarter Real GDP Revised Annual Season Rate Rose 4.2%, Expected Value Rose 3.9%, 4.0% Rise In Value, Before A 3 Quarter Of 2013 To A Record High For The U.S. Economic Recovery In 2014 Laid The Good Foundation. The United States On August 23, When The Jobless Claims 298000, Expected Value 300000, Former Value Correction From 298000 To 299000. Claims For Jobless Benefits Fell Again After, Still Near The Bottom Of The Recession, A Further Sign Of U.S. Job Market. July Existing-Home Sales Better Than Expected, To Increase 3.3%, 0.5%, The Former Value Fell By 0.1%.

Geopolitical Crises In Ukraine For Signs Of Further Escalation Of The Crisis Concerns Also Against The Euro. Ukraine Has Reported That The Russian Army Has Invaded The Ukrainian Territory, Called For Countries To Sanctions Against Russia, And Calls For An Emergency Session Of The UN Security Council, To Deal With More And More Military Threat From Russia. And Russia, Points Out That The Ugandan Government Claimed That The Russian Army Into Ukraine Is Unfounded.

From The Point Of Signs, All Factors Against The Euro, And Good, This Also Is To Form The Strong Euro Weak Current Situation. Fall In The Euro Against The Dollar In Mid – Technical Trend, Yesterday’S Rebound To Form The Action Of Fill A Vacancy, Now Continue To Fall, Highlight Long Weakness, A Dominant Position In The Short And Operation Is Given Priority To With Rebound Short, Focused On 1.3200-20 Resistance, Support Below 1.3150.

(The Euro Against The Dollar For 1 Hour Chart)

On Thursday, August 28) Euro/Dollar Fell After Refresh This Week High Of 1.3220, And Gradually Fell To Near 1.3170. How Will The Euro In The Day? Commerzbank And Oversea-Chinese Banking Analyst For Comment.

Commerzbank, Senior Technical Analyst Axel Rudolph:

The Euro/Dollar Has Slipped To 1.3153 This Week Low, Look Downward And Psychological Price 1.3105 To 1.3000. But The Days Of Exchange Rate May Further Rebound.

Overseas Chinese Bank Analyst Emmanuel Ng:

Exchange Rate Stabilization Success On Thursday, After Reports That The European Central Bank May Not Meeting Next Week To Take Action, But Still Depends On The Performance Of The CPI Data.

International Gold Slowly But Surely Waiting For The Geopolitical Outbreak

On 29, Although The International Gold Last Week Fell To Their Lowest Level In Two Months, And Then The Physical Gold Manufacturers Demand To Promote The International Gold Prices Have Gone Up, But Still Lack The Gold Prices Topped $1300 Key Levels Of Kinetic Energy. At Present, The Development Of The Market Continues To Focus On Geopolitical Situation.

Ukraine Civil War Unexpected Shift Yesterday, Rebel Militias Massive Counterattack, Surrounded The Army More Elite Camp, While Ukraine Has Accused Russia’S Invasion Of Ukraine, Russia Denied, Said Only Volunteers In Ukraine.

This Big Change Situation In Eastern Ukraine, Europe And The United States Is In To Discuss How To Respond, Or Intensify Sanctions. Due To The Rapid Enlargement Of Russia’S Involvement In May, A Larger Market Rebound Yesterday, But Failed To Hold Above, Then Fell Back, It Is Impossible To Assess The Event Can Stimulate The Gold Market Rose To Any Position, May Have A Small But Continue To Fall.

Financial Calendar Face U.S. Economic Data Released Yesterday To Continue Bright Eye, In The Second Quarter GDP Was Revised Up To 4.2%, Year-On-Year In The Second Quarter Of The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index Rate Revised Was Steady At 2.3%, Reflects The Current U.S. Economic Recovery Is Good, Is Currently In The Us And Europe Contrasts Economy, Makes A Strong Dollar, The Gold Market Belongs To The Maximum Pressure.

Day Line, The Price Of Gold Morning Opened 1289 Line, The Plate Of The Relatively Small Fluctuations, But Influenced By The Data, Gold Dropped 1287, But The Geopolitical Tensions Again Give Gold, Gold Prices Stabilised Later In The 1288 Level.

From The Point Of 4 Hours, Gold Brin Up Openings, MA Average Bull, MACD Illustrated Index Golden Cross Peatlands, KDJ Divergent Down, RSI Go Smooth Running.

Together, Days After The International Price Of Gold To Continue Trading Near $1290, Wu Situation In Russia Will Have Greater News In Today’S Revelations, Is In Addition To The European And American Inflation Data, Today Can Gold At $1300 On An Important Driving Force. Today The Price Range Between 1284-1292, Overestimate How Low Residue.

Http://Www.Cngold.Org) Gold Prices, According To The Center Of Beijing Time Mingled, Today’S Gold Prices To $1288.39 An Ounce.

The Us ISM Manufacturing PMI Again, The Dollar Against The Yen Strength To Break The 105 Mark

2Nd —

On Tuesday (September 2) New York Session, Just Released By The Us ISM Manufacturing PMI Index Significantly Better Than Expected In August, And Earlier Markit Manufacturing Index Is Also Doing Well. The Positive Effect Of U.S. Economic Data, Make The Dollar Against The Yen In 105 On The Big, Highest Temporarily To 105.13, And Its High Level In Since January 2014. The Dollar Index Is Hold Days Rally Trading Near A 83 Mark.

With The Late U.S. Economic Data Released, Non-Us Currency Began Overwhelming Pressure. The Euro Against The Dollar Fell To 1.3109, The Lowest Pound, Lost 1.65 Against The Dollar Fell To 1.6499, The Dollar Against The Canadian Dollar To Continue To Rebound To Near 1.0931. New Yuan Against The U.S. Dollar Fell To 0.83, Lowest 0.8291.

Data Show That In August The ISM Manufacturing PMI59.0, Expected Value Of 56.8, Before The Value Of 57.1. In August The ISM Prices Paid Index Of 58.0, Expected Value, Value Of 59.5. In August The ISM New Orders Index Of 66.7, Expected Value, Value Of 63.4. In August The ISM’S Employment Index Is 58.1, The Predicted Value Of 58.4, Before The Value Of 58.2. In August The ISM Output Index Of 64.5, Expected Value, Value Of 61.2. In August The ISM Inventories Index Of 52.0, Expected Value, Value Of 48.5. In August The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index Of New Orders Of Record Since April 2004. In August The ISM Manufacturing PMI Of Record Since March 2011.

The U.S. Construction Spending In July Month Rate + 1.8% And + 1.0% Expected Value, The Former Value To 1.8%. U.S. Construction Spending In July Month Rate + 1.8%, + 1.0% Expected Value, The Former Value By 1.8% To 0.9%.

In Addition, The United States On August Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value 57.9, Expected Value, Value Of 58.0. The United States On August Markit Manufacturing PMI Output Sub-Index Final Value 60.7, Expected Value, Value Of 60.2. The United States On August Markit Manufacturing PMI New Orders Index Value Of 60.5, Expected Value, Value Of 60.8. In August Markit PMI Manufacturing Employment Index Value Of 54.6, Expected Value, Value Of 54.6. In August Markit PMI Manufacturing Employment Index Value Of Record Since March 2013. The United States On August Markit Manufacturing PMI Terminal Value Of Record Since April 2010. And

Beijing Time, The Dollar Index At 83.01/02.

The Early Stage Of The Australian Dollar Too Visible Earlier This Week It Broke Miserably

Performed Very Grab An Eye, The Australian Dollar Last Week In Non-Us Currency Weakness, Strong State Hardly Lose $, Not For Long, However, Continued Strong Than The Dollar. The Australian Dollar Earlier This Week Also Fall Off The Worst One, Than Jump Pounds Empty Low Also Riches To Open, The Australian Dollar Exchange Rate, All Online Display Two Larger Yin Thread Consumption Fell Hard Early Gains.

The Australian Dollar Fell Earlier This Week The Main Reason Is That The Two Aspects, The Prospect Of A Strong Recovery In The United States, To Stimulate The Rising Dollar, Coupled With Market Rumours $Rate Steps Could Be Faster Than Expected, The Dollar Bulls Is A Luxury; On The Other Hand Is The Cause Of The Australian Economy Is Relatively Weak.

Researchers At The San Francisco Fed (8 September) On Monday At The Latest, According To A Study In The Recent For Quite Some Time, Low Volatility In Financial Markets In May, According To Investors From All Walks Of Life Are Likely To Underestimate The Speed Of The Fed’S Future Interest Rates. The Fed Could Soon Caught Everybody Expected To Start Much Earlier Than Expected Into The Tightening Cycle.

Fed Chairman I. Plosser (Charles Plosser) On Saturday, September 6) Warned The Wording Of The Fed’S Change About Monetary Policy, In Order To Reflect The Status Of Economic Improvement, To Pave The Way For The Central Bank Is Expected To Raise Interest Rates In Advance.

Under The Influence Of The Official Talks, The Dollar Rally, Like The Rainbow, Although The United States Last Friday’S Non-Farm Data Unexpected Weakness, But It Is Difficult To Disappear Long Dollar’S Enthusiasm, The Market Consciousness Desalination Non-Agricultural Data.

On Tuesday (September 9) In Early Trading, Australia Has Unveiled A Housing Loan License Number And Key Data, Such As The NAB Business Index Showed That Australian Chinese Rose After The Mortgage License Number Seven Months Rate Is Lower Than Expected, NAB’S Business Climate Index Also Fell In August, The Australian Dollar Fell Back After The Data.

Specific Data Show That Australia 7 Chinese Rose Adjustable Rate Mortgage License Number Month After Rose 0.3%, Expected Value Rose 1.2%, 0.2% Rise In Value. Australia Investment After Seven Chinese Rose Adjustable Rate Mortgage License Frontal Month Rose 6.8%, The Former Value Dropped By 0.3%. Australia NAB’S Business Climate Index + 4 August, Former Value + 8. Australia NAB Business Confidence Index + 8 August, Before The Value To + 10.

Technical Indicators, The Australian Dollar, Chart MACD Indicators Have Been Downward Momentum Column, And The Main Line And Signal Lines Under Wear Zero Axis, Suggests That The Price Dynamics Bearish. KD Index In The Form Of Death Fork Down Sharply. Look From K Line Form, The Australian Dollar Since Early April Has Formed A Head And Shoulder Pattern, Is Currently Below The Test Resistance. If The Key To Break Through The 200 – Day Moving Average Support Level, Exchange Rate Downward Space Is Huge.

(The Australian Dollar Chart Moves)

On Tuesday (September 9Th), Refresh After Low Of 1.2865, Since The Lows, And Hold Above 1.29. Days After The Economic Data And Less Fundamental Event, The European Union Sanctions Against Russia Fears Eased; The Euro Zone’S Many Officials Spoke; Last Week After European Central Bank To Implement A New Round Of Easing, Continuous Adjustment Pressure That Pushed The Euro, The Adjustment Of The Position Boost Euro Rebound Higher. This Week, The Eurozone And The Us Will Release A Series Of Important Economic Data, Investors Should Pay Close Attention To.

20140916_5190

Concerns About The Eu Sanctions Against Russia, Which Support The Euro Rebound. German Chancellor Angela Merkel In Berlin On Monday – The Brandenburg, Radio News Said If Ukraine Peacemaking Plan Are Met, You May Discuss Lift Sanctions Against Russia.

In Addition, Many Eurozone Officials Over The European Central Bank Policy Outlook Published Comments.

The European Central Bank Coeure Said, The Euro Appreciate Further Prove That Loose Monetary Policy Is Reasonable, The European Central Bank Should Not Be Required For A Particular Industry To Implement Policy. If The Government Wants To Do So, They Can Be Used In Hand Tools, Such As France, Or European Investment Banks, Such Institutions For Asset-Backed Securitization, Let The Framework Of The European Central Bank Has Announced To Buy These Assets.

German Finance Minister, He Said Germany Must Be Kept Stable Policy. The German Economy Development Environment By Dark Clouds. Germany Must Comply With The Commitment To Maintain Confidence, Need Private Investment To Stimulate Economic Growth, Must Find New Ways To Attract Private Investment. Stable Policy Is One Of The Best Basis For Economic Growth, Increase The Government Budget Deficit Does Not Promote Economic Growth. German Economic Outlook Is The Shadow, But Don’T Have To Feel Pessimistic.

The European Central Bank Said Liikanen, The European Central Bank To ABS Project Are Very Familiar With, Not Limit Policy. Monetary Policy Environment Is Very Challenging. He Was Convinced That Still There Is Room To Stimulate The Economy. Is Restrained, The Outlook For The Eurozone Economy Development Is Suppressed In The Outlook For Inflation And Monetary Policy Conversion Process Is Not Smooth.

Technically, 4 H Diagram, Exchange Rate Fell Slightly Rebounded. Technical Indicators, MACD Lines And Signal Lines Still Located Below The Zero Line, That Price Is Still In A Short Trend. Relative Strength Index RSI (14) Fell To Oversold Position, Show That There Are Oversold Short-Term Strength Bearish But Signs. , According To The Technical Trend Is Expected To Continue, But Severely Oversold Rebound In Demand.

(4 Hour Chart Moves)

(Day Chart Movements)