How To Play The Amp Economics Of The Yen

Published On Tuesday, The Bank Of Japan Decision, Repeated Purchases Of Government Bonds And Risky Assets, To Keep Growing At 60-70 Trillion Yen Based Monetary Stimulus Policies Unchanged. In 2014, The Monetary Base Size Targets For 270 Trillion Japanese Yen. Japan’S Central Bank Governor, Mr Kuroda Said, Although There Have Been Signs Of A Mild Recession In The Economy May Be In Japan, But He Still Optimistic To The Future. Loose Monetary Policy, Repeatedly On A Weak Yen, Seems To Make The Yen Lower Become A Foregone Conclusion, But As The QE Exit Raised Tax Plan Layout, With Japan Yen Is Before The End Of The Variable.

Japan’S Economy Into Recession

Since 2014, The Yen And The Stimulation Of The Stock Market Rose Sharply, The Japanese Consumer Psychology Has Been Greatly Improved, And The Personal Consumption Rose By 0.9%, Residential Investment Has Increased By 1.9%. Under The Influence Of The U.S. Auto Market Better, Japan’S Export Growth Of 3.8% In The First Quarter, Import Growth Of 1%. But Japan’S Central Bank Announced On Wednesday October Economy, According To A Report In April After Raising Consumption Taxes, The Market Demand. Industrial Production Is Affected, The Real Estate Market Continues To Show Weakness, The Improvement Of Business Sentiment Has Begun To Slow. Statistically, Household Spending Has Fallen For Five Consecutive Months, The Service Sector Index Is Also Less Than Expected. The Yen’S Depreciation For Small Businesses And Family Had Been Hurt.

Abe Economics Behind The High Debt

Shinzo Abe Took Office At The End Of 2012 Prompted The Bank Of Japan After Firing, Printing Money, Through Unlimited Loose Monetary Policy, Such As The Yen Accelerated Depreciation. Less Than Two Months, More Than 8.4% Against The U.S. Dollar Yen Amplitude, Hit Back At The Fed’S Announcement, Playing The Currency War. The Federal Reserve To Increase Employment, Stable Inflation; Strong Economic Structural Reform, Deleveraging And Gradually Shrink State-Led Investment Behavior. Abe Economics To Set Expectations Of Inflation Target, Consumption And Investment. But, Unlike The Rest Of The Developed And Developing Countries, Japan Lost Two Decades, Has Experienced The Huge Asset Bubble Of Tragedy. Japan’S Government Debt Is Twice That Of Global GDP, Higher Than Any Developed Countries Around The World. Such An Aging Society In Japan, Mr Abe Economics Is Really Desperate. Loose Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy And Structural Reforms Directly Led To The Japanese Companies In Overseas Markets Bad Competition Situation, Which Leads To Many Asian Countries. High Cost Of Monetary Policy Can Really Drive Demand, Private Investment And Economic Growth? All This Time Validation Is Required.

Raising Taxes Or Not

Mr Abe’S Policy Of Printing Money To Japan’S Stock Market And Financial Assets Be Elated, The Yen Also Right Away. That Creates A False Prosperity, However, The Yen Is A Huge Bubble. The United States Had A Fiscal Cliff Seems Is Waving To Japan. Therefore, Control Of Debt Is Imminent. Also This Is The Purpose Of Raising The Consumption Tax.

In April This Year, Mr Abe Will Consumption Tax From 5% To 5%, And According To The Indication Of Economic Condition To Decide Whether To Rise Again. From The Point Of Economic Data, Currently Japan’S Economic Recovery Is Still Fragile, Again Raise The Consumption Tax Could Adversely Impact. In The Face Of Early Next Year’S General Election, The Fiscal Policy Or Will Not Only Bring Economic Risk, Are More Likely To Lead To Mr Abe’S Dilemma Of Political Risk.



Although Long-Term Devaluation Of Yen Trend Irreversible, But From The Point Of ZhongDuanXian And Technical Analysis, Trading Days This Week In Yin Line Fell, Predicted Pressure Near 108-110. Days, America And Japan In A Narrow Range 107.95 108.30, Is Expected To Break Under Short-Term Volatility. This Week Try To Short Term Bearish, Strict Stop Loss.

QE End Mean For Precious Metals

International Finance And The Gold Market Is Waiting For The End Of The Fed’S Open Market Committee Meeting On Wednesday. Market Expectations The Fed Will End Asset Purchase Program, Namely Quantitative Easing (QE). The End Of The “Quantitative Easing” Mean For The Precious Metals Market?

As The Market Long Before Then The Federal Reserve Is Expected To End Of Quantitative Easing, Therefore, It Is Unlikely Will Bring Much Impact For Gold. But This Is Not To Say That The Gold, Silver And Other Precious Metals And Will Not Lead To Price Volatility.

Dollar Index Since July To Early October This Year Appeared A Strong Rise, Partly Because Of The Weak Euro, It Is More Important Because More And More Investors Expect Strong U.S. Economic Data Will Make An End To The Fed’S Asset Purchases. A Stronger Dollar On The Precious Metals Market, Gold Market There Is A Round Obvious Fall At The Same Time, Silver Prices Drop More.


Precious Metals Markets Often Conflicted With Widely Expected. Simple Review Of The Quantitative Easing Policy (Third) Launched After The Performance Of The Precious Metals Market. Before The Third Announced The Release In September 2012, Many Analysts Agree That A Third Of The Precious Metals Market Has A Positive Direct Role In Promoting. However, The Fact That Intuition Is Completely Different With People In The Third Announced After The Precious Metals Market Fell For Several Months.

Time Back In October 2014, The Fed Will End On Wednesday Anyway. At Present, Few People Think The End Of Quantitative Easing On The Precious Metals Market Would Be A Bullish News. In Fact, The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Data Showed That More Than Gold And Silver Speculation To Multiyear Lows, Hedge Funds In The Silver Market Net Long Record Lows.

However, An End To The Fed’S Quantitative Easing Will Not Let The Market Hot Money Suddenly More Bearish On The Precious Metals Market, Because They Already Before The Fed Announced His Retirement From QE Expressed Their Position. Therefore, After The Fed Released Final Exit Decision For The Precious Metals Market Is No Longer Constitute An Event Shocks.

At The Same Time, It May Impact On American Stocks And Bonds, Because They Have Been Benefited From The Fed Continuously To Provide Liquidity. In Previous Rounds The Fed After The End Of Quantitative Easing, The U.S. Stock Market Have A Significant Adjustment. And, Once The Fed Raising Interest Rates, It Will Pursue The Path Of Rising Inflation.

And, Of Course, The Federal Reserve Did Not Sell As Much As $4 Trillion For The Past Few Years To Accumulate Bonds Recently Plan, No Commitment To Raise Interest Rates. However, The Market Generally Expected The Federal Reserve Will Raise Interest Rates In 2015 Years.

The Fed Chairman Yellen Said Recently That The Appropriate Path, Time And Rhythm Of Raising Interest Rates Policy Should Response To The Economic Development And Changes, If The Time Is Faster Than The Committee Expected, Earlier Increases In Interest Rates Is Logical. In Other Words, If The Economic Data, Particularly Related To Employment) Badly, The Fed May Slow Down The Pace Of Raising Interest Rates, And Even The Implementation Of A New Stimulus Plan. Yellen Has Repeatedly Said That Stimulate Employment Growth Is Far More Important Than Inflation. This Means That The Fed May Won’T Raise Rates Before Inflation Out Of Control. The Wall Street Journal Survey Of 30 Economists, 27 Economists Expect The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Will Not Rush In The Matter.

The Fed Does Not Directly Control The Short-Term Or Long-Term Real Interest Rate Is Positive Or Negative. Negative Real Interest Rates (Nominal Rates Below Inflation) Usually Is Bullish Factors For Precious Metals, Even If The Fed To Raise Short-Term Interest Rates, Negative Real Interest Rates Can Continue Even Bigger. This Is The Last Century The Late 70 S Happened In Precious Metals Bull Market. Rapidly Rising Inflation, The Fed Pace Forever Behind It.

There Is A Common Misconception On The Market, That Is, Only The Federal Reserve To Cut Interest Rates Or More Quantitative Easing, To The Precious Metals Market Is More. However, If The Force The Fed To Raise Interest Rates And Rising Inflation Pressure Is Also Very Bullish On Gold And Silver Market.

Precious Metals Investors Don’T Worry About Interest Rates, The Opposite Should Be Looking Forward To A New Round Of Interest-Rate Increases, Precious Metals A New Round Of Rally Will Come. When Real Interest Rates To Positive, Precious Metals Bull Market Is Over. Under The Condition Of The Market At Present, These Did Not Appear.

Emerging Markets To Slow Economic Growth

When China’S Economy Slows, Performance Instability And Poor Region Economy In Eastern Europe, People Suddenly Realized That The World’S Most Dynamic Emerging Economies Are In The Lowest Since The Financial Crisis.

At The Same Time, The Current Oil Prices At A Four-Year Low, The Engine Economic Contraction In Germany. The Prospects For The Global Economy Cast A Shadow Over.

Last Week, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) By The World Economic Growth Is Expected, The Weak Europe, Russia And Brazil’S Economy Growth Expectations, The Influence Of Its Forecast For Economic Growth In 2015 By 0.2% To 3.8%. Emerging Asia This Year’S GDP Growth Forecast To 6.5% And 6.5% Respectively.

IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard Said Publicly Last Week, The Medium Term, The Prospects For Emerging Economies Appear Quite A Big Change.

The IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde Also Point Out That Countries Such As Brazil And Russia There Is An Obvious Economic Slowdown, The Federal Reserve (Fed) Over The QE Will Cause The Oscillation Of The Emerging Economies.

(Capital Economics, A Research Firm Capital Economics) Of 19 Large Emerging Economies, According To Data From The Region’S Industrial Output In August And Consumer Spending In The Second Quarter Fell To Their Lowest Level Since 2009. Export Growth Also Fell Sharply In August.

The Ft (Financial Times) Recently That These Trends Are To Strengthen People’S A Kind Of Feeling, Namely The Slower Growth Is Becoming A Global Long-Term Characteristics Of Some Of The Most Dynamic Economies.

This Is The New Norm, Chief Emerging Markets Economist Neil Shearing Of Capital Economics, Said For The Purpose Of This Ten Years Remaining Time, Can Only Be The Case. This Is To Be Able To Reach The Best State.

China To Be Announced In The Third Quarter GDP Data, The Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs Estimates That GDP Growth In The Third Quarter Will Be Dropped To About 7.1% From 7.5% In The Second Quarter. Implied Quarter-On-Quarter Growth Of 7.8%, Slightly Higher Than The Second Quarter.

According To The Model Now – Casting Company, Brazil Or Sliding 0.3% GDP Growth This Year, Far Below The 2.5% In 2013.

Deutsche Bank, Fanon Recommendations Continue To Short The Yen

The Bank Of Japan All Expand The Scale Of Monetary Easing In Yen Plummeted Across The Board Against Almost All Currencies, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bank) Recommend Next Week To Continue To Do More Dollar/Yen, France Its (Said Credit Agricole) Recommended For How The Australian Dollar/Yen.

The Bank Of Japan On Friday Accident Expand The Scale Of Quantitative And Qualitative Loose (QQE) To 80 Trillion Yen, As More And More Signs That The Inflation Target Will Perish. In Addition, The Bank Of Japan Will Also Increase Government Bond Purchases, The Average Duration Extended To About 7 To 10 Years; The Bank Of Japan Also Will Increase The Purchase Of Risky Assets, Such As ETF Portfolio Increases Every Year, 3 Trillion Yen, Previously For 1 Trillion Japanese Yen.

Dollar/Yen Surged More Than 2.8% In A Single Day On Friday, To The Highest Level Since December 2007 112.45.

Deutsche Bank Has Recommended Do More Dollar/Yen On Tuesday, According To The Currency In The Short Term To 110 Mark This Test Again, This Also In A Few Days Later To Get The Market Validation. And Looking Forward To Next Week, Released At The End Of The Week The Bank Again To Do Much Dollar/Yen.

Deutsche Bank Analyst Taisuke Tanaka, Believe That The Bank Of Japan To This Decision Shows That Its Still Needs A Further Depreciation Of The Yen To Achieve The Inflation Target Of 2%.

Deutsche Bank Analyst George Saravelos Pointed Out That The Loose Is More Important Than The Previous Round, Because This Is Completely Came As A Surprise To The Markets And The Bank Of Japan Expressed Clearly Focused On The Behavior Of The Risky Asset, Which Ignited Market Trading.

Deutsche Bank Predicts, The Bank Of Japan And Japanese Pension Funds (GPIF) Strategy Will Make The Risk Preference Of The Japanese Market Rose Sharply, Trend And The Actual Low Interest Rates Will Make Dollar/Yen Afternoon Again.

French Its Bank Friday’S Report, Should Meet High Short Yen, Especially Choose Yields A Higher Currency Pairs, Such As The Australian Dollar.

The Bank Said That The Current Global Central Bank Interest Rates To Expectations Are Stable, Currency Exchange Rate Will Be More Driven By Risk Sentiment, Is Expected To The End Of This Feature Will Be More Obvious.

Many Market Participants Believe That The Bank Of Japan To Expand Monetary Easing Will Stimulate More Than Japan’S, And Even The Global Investor Risk Appetite Higher, We Have Seen The Typical Risk Assets, Such As Japan, The Stock Market Boom, Safe-Haven Assets Such As The Yen, Gold Sell-Off.

Not Only That, The Japanese Pension Riskier Asset Purchase Plan Involving Foreign Market, And From The Developed Countries Of Japan Recently — Assets In Australia Has Been One Of The Important Investment Targets Of Japanese Investors Preference, The Future Is Expected To See Japan Investment Institutions Further Selling Yen To Buy Australian Dollars To Invest Assets In Australia, Will Be Good For The Australian Dollar/Yen Higher.


Dollar/Yen (White Line), The Australian Dollar/Yen (Yellow Line) Charts:

U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization Of Opening A New Global Game

Seven Years Ago, The United States Detonated A Spread Of The Global Financial Crisis. In The Financial Aspects Of The Countermeasures Is In The United States, Has Introduced Three Rounds Of Quantitative Easing. The United States To Do So, Of Course, In The Interests Of The United States As A Priority. The Results Of Quantitative Easing Is America’S Economy Turned For The Better, The Price Of The Financial Crisis On, And Makes Life Difficult For An American Rival In It. Now, The End Of Quantitative Easing, Monetary Policy In The United States Began To Normal, Does This Mean That Another Round Of The Game Start? Please Mop.

– Turiaf

The Fed On Schedule After The Third Round Of Quantitative Easing, The United States Will Normalize Monetary Policy Process Has Entered Into The Phase Of Normalizing Interest Rates. Estimated That The Federal Reserve May Raise Interest Rates For The First Time In The Middle Of Next Year At The Earliest. Because The Background Is Different From The Past, Raising Interest Rates Will Take Place In The New Framework Of Interest Rate Policy. At The Same Time, Because Of The Economic Recovery Remained Weak Spot, The Move Does Not Mean That The Continuous Cycle Of Open, So The Impact On The World Economy Will Generally Controlled, And The Financial Before The Entity, The Pattern Of International More Than Domestic, Influence On Our Country Will Not Do More Harm Than Good As A Whole.

In The Recently Concluded In October, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting, The Fed Announced The End On Time Since September 2012 The Implementation Of The Third Round Of Asset Purchases (Third). Under The Current U.S. Economic Recovery Continues To Good Posture, According To Mr Bernanke’S Exit Roadmap Before Stepping Down, The Fed Would Put The Ultra-Low Interest Rates Next Callback To A Neutral Level. End Anyway Also Means U.S. Monetary Policy, Therefore, The Normalization Process To Raise Rates By QE Cuts Into The Stage Of Transformation.


The Fed To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time Point Near

Since The Second Quarter, The U.S. Economic Recovery Resilience, Show A Strong Recovery In The Quarter GDP Implementation On Year Growth Of 4.6%, And In The Second Half To Consumption, Employment And Manufacturing Areas Of Major Economic Indicators Are Positive Momentum, The Latest In The Third Quarter GDP Growth Of 3.5%, Significantly Higher Than Expected. If According To The Current Trend Of Development, According To Mr Bernanke’S Exit Roadmap Before Stepping Down, The Fed Would Put The Ultra-Low Interest Rates Next Callback To Neutral Level, In Does Not Affect The Normal Economic Growth At The Same Time Guard Against Potential Inflation And Financial Risks.

The Bank For International Settlements (BIS), According To The Taylor Rule To Calculate The Current Federal Funds Rate Should Be Between 0.5% And 2.5%, And Gradually Increase To 2% In 2015-2015-4% Range, And Now The 0-0.25% Significantly Below That Level. Although Yellen Has Repeatedly Said The Fed’S Monetary Policy Decisions Without A Fixed Formula, But The FOMC Meeting In September, That Should Be To Raise Interest Rates Next Year The Number Of Members Has Been Further Increased To 14 (Members With A Total Of 17). And In Its Latest Monetary Policy Statement, The Fed, Though Still Retained The Will For A Long Time To Maintain The Level Of Short-Term Interest Rates Close To Zero, But Has Removed The Labor Force Resources Use Significantly Less Than The Wording, Which Suggests That The Fed’S Recovery Prospects For The Us Economy And Employment Confidence Further Improved. Integrated The New York Fed Primary Dealers Etc, Reflect Market Expectations, As Well As Language Rules, Some Fed Officials Said And The Arrangement Of The Monetary Policy Meeting Next Year, Estimates That The Federal Reserve May Raise Interest Rates For The First Time In The Middle Of Next Year At The Earliest.

The Fed Raising Interest Rates Will Use The New Interest Rate Policy Framework

The Fed Is Now Doing Preparation For Raising Interest Rates, One Is To Strengthen The Forward-Looking Guidance, Except Through The Meeting Minutes And Release Rate Speech Signal, After The Federal Reserve’S Monetary Policy Meeting In September For The First Time Released The Normalization Principle Of Monetary Policy And Plan; Second Is To Improve The Rate Of Tools, Including Test Overnight Reverse Repurchase Rate, Deposit Tools Such As The New Interest Rates.

Is Different From The Previous Before Raising Interest Rates, The Fed Is An Unprecedented Expansion In The Balance Sheet, The Financial System Is In Abundant Liquidity As Well As The Economic Recovery Is Still Not Completely Clear The Process Of Normalization Of Monetary Policy, Under The Condition Of The Need To Coordinate Both Raise The Federal Funds Rate And Reduce The Relationship Between The Balance Sheet, To Avoid A Sharp Contraction Of Liquidity In The Financial System And Real Economy Caused Serious Impact; And Requirements To Ensure That In The Process Of Raising Interest Rates In The Effective Interest Rate Control, Make It Reflect The Fed’S Policy Intentions, So The Fed Needs To Establish The New Interest Rate Policy Framework. Normalizing Judgment Based On The Current Information, The Federal Reserve’S Monetary Policy Will Be Conducted In Accordance With The Following Ways:

Is A Monetary Policy, Normalized Path Will Be According To Improve The Level Of The Federal Funds Rate For The First Time To Shrink Their Balance Sheets In The Order.

The Goal Is To Normalize The Fed’S Monetary Policy Implementation In The Federal Funds Rate And The Normalization Of The Balance Sheet. Although Sell Securities Assets Can Realize Recycling Liquidity And Reduce The Dual Purpose Of The Balance Sheet, But In The Current U.S. Economic Recovery Still Needs To Be Consolidated, And The Securities Assets To Long-Term Treasury And Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Is Given Priority To, This Will Increase The Market Interest Rate Fluctuations, Rise In Long-Term Interest Rates, Is Not Conducive To Economic Recovery And The Real Estate Market.

To Raise Interest Rates Before The Shrink Their Balance Sheets Will Be Conducive To A Better Control On Monetary Policy Normalization Process, The Market Focused On Short-Term Interest Rates; After Raising Interest Rates For The First Time, The Fed Will Stop Bonds Due Principal And Earnings Reinvestment, Let The Natural Maturing Securities Assets, Realize Smooth Contraction Of The Balance Sheet, Reduce The Market Of The Federal Reserve Shrinkage Table Speed Of Excessive Attention And Response. Look From The Completion Time, The Federal Reserve Interest Rates Expected To 3.5 In 2017-4% Of The Neutral Level For A Long Time, And The Balance Sheet Shrinkage Will Continue Until 2021, So Rates Will Be Completed Prior To The Balance Sheet Normalization Process.

At The Same Time, While The Fed Has Confirmed That The Federal Funds Rate Will Remain The Main Policy Operation Target, But Because After Three Rounds Of Quantitative Easing, The Total Reserves Of The Banking System Is Close To $3 Trillion, Lending To Banks By The Federal Funds Market In Order To Achieve The Necessity Of The Fed Daily Reserve Requirement Has Been Greatly Reduced. In Addition, The Fed’S Bond Buying Actions Lead To Large Amounts Of Liquidity Into The Non-Bank Financial Institutions, Also Reduced The Federal Funds Rate To Guide The Effectiveness Of Other Money Market Rates. Therefore, When The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time May Have To Do A Few Things:

A, May Adjust The Federal Funds Rate Calculation Method. The Federal Funds Rate Based On Overnight Bank Reserve Loan Broker Deals, Participants Are Mainly In The United States, Government-Sponsored Enterprises And Foreign-Funded Banks. Future Fed When Calculating The Rates Could Enlarge The Definition Of Interbank Lending, Into The Overnight Bank Reserve Loan Deal Directly, European Dollar Trade, Etc. Series Of Broader Trade, So As To Improve The Authenticity And Reliability Of The Federal Funds Rate. This Year On April 1, The Fed Has Already Begun To 165 Domestic Banks And Branches Of Foreign Banks In The United States To Collect More Data.

2 To 25 Basis Points Target Range Instead Of A Fixed Value. In The Federal Reserve For The Federal Funds Rate Under The Condition Of Control Effectiveness Abate, Set The Target Range Is More Realistic Choice, But Also To Reduce The Frequent Intervention In The Market. But With The Increase Of Interest Rate Range, Floating In The Federal Funds Rate Will Increase As The Benchmark, The Difficulty Of The Other Short-Term Interest Rates And Interest Rate Derivatives Pricing, Cause The Overnight Lending Market Disorder, Loss And The Function Orientation Of The Policy Interest Rate Target. So The Fed May After The First Increase With The Improvement Of The Regulation Tools Stepwise Regression Fixed Numerical Model Of Rates.

3, The Use Of Other Monetary Policy Tools To Ensure The Effective Controls The Interest Rates. Since The Great Depression, The Fed Has Been Through Open Market Operations Control The Federal Funds Rate. Since The Turn Of The Century, The Fed’S Interest Rate Policy Operation Began To Interest Rate Corridor System Transition, And In The International Financial Crisis The Fed Dramatically Changed The Discount Window And Reserve Management System, And Laid A Solid Foundation For The Formation Of Interest Rate Corridor. Comprehensive Utilization Of The Rise, The Fed Will Interest Rates On Excess Reserves, The Overnight Reverse Repurchase Rate, Deposit Tools, Such As Monetary Policy Tools, As Well As Short-Term Interest Rates In Order To Effectively Control From Its Long Dropped Out Of The Target Range, But Also A New Interest Rates To The Fed’S Policy Framework And The Practice Of Inspection.

The Economic Climate Index Hit A Two-Year Low The German Economy Going?

German Investor Confidence Fell In October, 10 Consecutive Month Of Decline, And The Record Low Of Nearly Two Years Since That The Euro Zone’S Largest Economy Is Experiencing Unusually Vulnerable Stage, Because Of The Euro Zone’S Fragile Economic Recovery, Increasing At The Same Time, Ukraine And The Middle East.

The European Center For Economic Research (ZEW), Said The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Fell To 3.6 In October, Less Than 6.9 In September. The Index Was The Lowest Since November 2012. The Index To Measure Economic Development Over The Next Six Months The Expected Investors And Analysts’ Expectations.

(German Economic Sentiment Index Charts Source: FX168 Business Network)

Is The German Economy Teetering On The Edge Of The Recession, In The Second Quarter GDP Unexpected Atrophy.

Recent Indicators Suggest That The German Factory Orders In August, Industrial Production And Export Are Its Biggest Decline Since January 2009. The Country’S Benchmark DAX Index Is Down 13% Since Early July, To Their Lowest Level In A Year.

Data Also Showed That The German ZEW Economic Status Index Dropped To 3.2 In October, And More Than Four Years, Low Value Of 25.4.

BHF – Bank AG Economist Peter Meister, According To The Weak Sentiment, Reflects The Ongoing Geopolitical Crisis Question The Validity Of The New Measures By The European Central Bank And Market, Coupled With The Recent Indicators For Poor, And The Stock Market Downturn Is Having A Negative Effect.

According To German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel Government Research Institute Said In A Report Published, The Economy May Be Zero Growth In The Third Quarter. The Economic Forecast In April This Year By 2014 To 1.3%, The Economy Is Expected To 1.2% Next Year.

Data After The ZEW Commented That Geopolitical Tensions And Weak In Some Areas Of The Euro Zone Economy Brings To The German Economy Continued Uncertainty.

ZEW, According To The Industrial Production And Foreign Trade Of Disappointing Data Or Will Cause Gloom Deepened; The Disappointing Data Such As Industrial Production And Foreign Trade Or Will Cause A Deepening Of Pessimism.

ZEW Added, Does Not Exclude The German Economy In The Third Quarter Will Be Negative, But I Don’T Think The Recession Will Continue For A Long Time; If Inflation Expectations Continue To Fall, The Implementation Of QE Is Feasible.

Treasury Yields The Mystery Of Who Is In Buying U.S. Debt?

Decline In Treasury Yields Is Afraid Is The Market That Most Investors Were Surprised By This Year. Gradually Reduce The Fed Asset Purchases, The U.S. Economy To Accelerate Recovery Rates, In 2015, With The Expectation That, As A Safe-Haven U.S. Debt May Not Be So Attractive, Yields Should Be Raised.

What’S More, The Second Largest U.S. Debt Holders (The First), China Has Recently Been Underweight U.S. Debt, Other Central Banks Also Appears To Be Weakening Demand For U.S. Debt, Such As Russia, To Defend Their Currencies, Russia Seems To Sell A Lot Of U.S. Debt. In The Past Four Weeks, The Federal Reserve For Other Countries’ Central Bank Generation Debt Has Reduced The Amount Of $48.5 Billion.

Since The Big Buyers Who Are Underweight, Higher Yield And Inevitably, Who Exactly Is That In Buying U.S. Debt?

Behind This One Of The Great Demand From The Bank Of The United States.

From St. Louis Fed Chart Shows The American Commercial Banks Since Last Year Held In Addition To The MBS Treasury And Agency Bonds, In 2013, Most Banks Are Short, But In The Past 12 Months, The Bank Has Continued To Large-Scale Buying, Its Size Has More Than 145 Billion Dollars.

What Is The Motivation Behind It?

Financial Blogs Marc To The Explanation Is Very Interesting, The Market Only Because, The Bank Money Too Much.

At Present, Bank Deposit Growth Than Loans. By September This Year, The Bank Of Deposit Scale Has Reached A Record 10.4 Trillion Dollars, The Gap Between Deposits And Loans Is At A Record High. Depositors Will Be Savings In The Bank, But Banks Are Not Lending, Family Did Not Borrow Again, The S&Amp;P 500, The Company’S Income Is Rising, But The Debt Burden Of The Clinton Administration To The Lowest Level.

For Example, The Huffington Post This Chart Provides A Typical Case. Jpmorgan Chase Recently Announced Third Quarter, Excess Deposits (Blue Column) Is More Than Twice The 2010, LDR (Red Curve) Falling. In The Third Quarter Jpmorgan Chase Every Dollar Deposits Lent 56 Cents.

Other Banks Slightly Higher, The Ratio Of Citi Every Dollar Deposits Lent 67 Cents, Rich Countries Is 76 Cents, The Bank Is 80 Cents, The Three Banks Of Excess Deposits Totaled $766 Billion, In Addition To Jpmorgan Chase Alone At $590 Billion.

This Part Of The Excess Deposits Belong To A Very High Liquidity In The Financial System As Part Of The Assets, About Half Were Used To Buy Us Treasuries, Considering The Cost Is Almost Negligible, Banks Earn All The Benefits.

In Addition, There Is Another Factor To Encourage Banks To Hold More Debt. That Is To Take Effect At The Beginning Of New Rules On Liquidity, Higher Liquidity Regulations Require Banks To Hold More High-Quality Assets. According To Reports, The Fed Expects Banks May Need To Combine The Basic Requirement Of $100 Billion To $100 Billion.

The Economy Of China And The United States Are The Pillow

U.S. President Barack Obama Recently At The Chinese Economy A Lift, Meaning To Touch The Light In The United States. To Be Fair, Under The Trend Of Economic Globalization, As The World’S Total Economic Leader Of The United States Is The World’S Economic Locomotive, On China’S Economic Growth Has Played A Certain Role In Promoting. But The Chinese As The Second Largest Economy, Its Economic Status Also To Be Reckoned With, Has Also Made Its Own Contribution To America’S Economic Growth.

Rather Than China A Lift With Light In The United States, China And The United States Economy Each Pillow, Hitchhiking. The Rapid Development Of Economic Globalization, The Deepening Of Sino-Us Economic And Trade Relations, Make Every Aspect Of People’S Economic Life In China And The United States More Closely Contact, Form The Sometimes-Complex Mix-And-Match, I Have You, Mutually Beneficial And Win-Win Economic And Trade Relations.

Each Other’S Second Largest Trade Partner Of China And The United States, China For Many Years As America’S Fastest-Growing Export Market. Sino-Us Trade From Almost Zero State When Nixon’S Visit In 1972, To $2013 In 521 Billion. By The End Of 2013, China And The United States Two-Way Investment Has Accumulated More Than 100 Billion Dollars. Bilateral Mutually Beneficial Cooperation Bring Tangible Benefits For Our Two Peoples, For The Two Countries Economic Development And World Economic Recovery And Injected With Power.

The United States Suffered During The Financial Crisis, China Has Not Schadenfreude, Stretched Out A Hand Of Friendship Brother Instead. At The Beginning The China Investment Corporation Throwing $5 Billion At Morgan Stanley Is One Example. When Americans About The Investment That Morgan Stanley Is Down, Cic’S Investment Will Be Like The Last Touch Black Stone Across The River, And Once Again.

As Of November 30, 2007 Fourth Quarter, Morgan Stanley Is A Net Loss Of $3.59 Billion During Loss Of $3.61 A Share. In This Case, The Cic Put Money To Morgan Stanley’S Arms, Still Pass A Pillow, Although The Cic Also Has Its Own Blueprints, Americans Even Less Effusive.

For Another Example, The United States, South Carolina Lancaster County Was Famous Textile Powerhouse, But By 2007, Almost Wiped Out The Local Textile Industry. Since The End Of 2013, China’S Zhejiang Cole Group Invested $218 Million In Local Factory, Textile Industrial Corridor To Life Again. By 2013, At Least 17 Chinese Companies To Invest In South Carolina, Investment Of $656 Million.

Also, The United States In The Pillow To China, The United States More Than Half Of The World Top 500 Enterprises In China, Thousands Of Development Zones Throughout China, Sino-Us Joint Venture Has Become The Major Force Of China’S Economic Growth.

There Are Quite A Number Of China’S Economy GDP Growth Depend On America’S Economic Prosperity, With A Comfortable Pillows Is Like. Rising For Several Years, The United States Imported To China For Years, The United States To China’S Investment In Successive Years Increases, Boosted China’S Economic Growth.

China And The United States Economy Is The Induction Effect Of Interact, A Sneeze, The Other Party Is Bound To Catch A Cold.

Sino-American Friendship Dates Back To The 18Th Century. 1784, American Merchant Ship Empress Of China Across The Sea, Its Maiden Flight, China Has Opened The Prologue Of The Friendly Exchanges Between The Two Peoples; The Middle Of The 19Th Century, Tens Of Thousands Of Chinese Workers And The American People, “Open Roads Meeting The Mountain Together, Treat Water Bridge, Common Rail Arteries Were Laid Across The United States Things; More Than 60 Years Ago, The Chinese And American People Hand In Hand To Fight Against The Fascist Invasion, Thousands Of American Soldiers Fought In China Fought And The Chinese People Still Miss Them Deeply.

Both Countries Is With Important Influence In The Country In The World, The Two Sides In Economy, Trade, Security, Public Health, Energy, Environmental Protection, And Many Other Fields And Major International And Regional Issues Have Important Common Strategic Interests.

Since The Second World War, The Only Military Intervention In The Korean War, Harmonious Is Greater Than The Rest Of The Time Were Conflict, Now On The Security In The Asia-Pacific Region Can Form The Tacit Understanding, This Is The Common Political Wisdom Of The Leaders Of The Two Countries Condenses Into Harmony.

China-Us Economic Complementarity Decided The Consistency Of The Strategic Interests Of China And The United States. China-Us Economic And Trade Relations Are Mutually Beneficial, With The Development Of The Relationship Between Political Relations, Cultural Relations Between The Two Countries, The Relationship Between Science And Technology Is Closely Related To All Aspects Of Development, Complement Each Other. China-Us Economic And Trade Relations In The Process Of Continuous Development, Promote The Development Of The Cooperation In Other Areas Of China And The United States, Became The Solid Foundation For The Overall Relations Between China And The United States, Not Only Benefit The Two Peoples, And Contributed To The Asia-Pacific Region And The World Economic Growth.

Say From Strategic Interests, China Has No Intention Of Contest, With The United States, China Will Not Pose Any Threat To The United States. Just Want To Do Your Own Thing Well, China Does Not Seek Hegemony In The Whole World, Also Don’T Want To Seek Hegemony.

The United States Should Understand That If Always Make Friction On The Economy, And China Can Not Pass, Is The Next Set For Yourself, Do More Harm Than Good.

Chinese Theory Of Hitchhiking Is The Hegemony Of The Consistent Thought And The Theory Of The Special Status. Americans Are Proud That The United States Is The World’S Police, The Basic Order Of The World Should Be Maintained By The United States, America’S Dominance Is Infringed. The United States Also Own International Behavior Itself As The Selfless Dedication, Is The International Behavior, Whether In Afghanistan Or In Iraq, Or In Libya And Syria, The Interference Of The Interior Of These Countries, Are Considered In Providing Social Public Product, Not Simply For The Sake Of The Interests Of The United States. But These Places, Notting Have Is Not The National Core Interests, Other Countries Don’T Score, Could Not Operate. If The Concerted Action On These Issues And Not The United States, Not To Participate In The Activities Of The United States Launched The War And Interference, Is Not Obligatory For The World, Is A Lift.

When Barack Obama Accused China Of A Lift, He Ignored An Important Fact: As Of December 2013, China’S Total Holdings Of U.S. Treasury Bonds Of $1.27 Trillion, Is Increased To $2012 In 2012, Is America’S Largest Creditor. This Means That China’S Huge Contribution To The Quantitative Easing In The United States, To Accept The Huge Liquidity.

Obama’S A Lie, The Wisest Man Often Seems Stupid, Not A Political Scam, Is Foreign Hypocrisy.

Three Channels With Hong Kong Dollars Hong Kong Shopping Is More Stronger

Since September Issue In Hk Financial Product

National Day Long Vacation Is Coming, Go To Hong Kong Shopping Has Been Written Into Many Holiday Arrangements. In Fact, Whether It Is A Holiday In Hong Kong Shopping Or Daily Financial Management, Investors Have Become Familiar With Hong Kong’S Old Friend.

Hong Kong Dollar And The Dollar, So There Are 2 Dollars. At Present, The Market Is Expected To Appreciate Against The Dollar As The U.S. Economic Recovery Gradually Heating Up, And The Renminbi Two-Way Floating Rate Increase, Not Only Can Layout Hk Financial Hedge Risk, To Hong Kong Shopping Friend Also.

The Current Bank Demand Deposits Business, Bank Financial Products, QDII Funds Become The Main Channel To Hk.

Channel 1: Deposit Basically See Rates

Chinese Do Not Weak Foreign Banks See Preferential


Under Normal Circumstances, The Foreign Capital Bank’S Foreign Currency Deposit Has Obvious Advantages, But In Hk On A Regular Basis On The Current Business, Chinese Bank Interest Rates Are Also Given Competitive, While Foreign Line The Main Selling Point Is Favourable Activity. Because Of Numerous Chinese Bank Business Outlets, Hk Deposit More Convenient; For The Big Money Customer, Foreign Bank Activity More Attractive Interest Rates.

From The Point Of Deposit Rates, Small Differences In Both Chinese And Foreign-Funded Banks. Still, For There Is A Big Investors, When Making The Deposit Still Need To Shop Around. Current Deposit Interest Rates, Almost All Banks Take A 0.01% Interest Rate, Standard Chartered Bank Is More Outstanding, Only 0.05%. Current 7 Days Notice Deposit, Also Is The Standard Chartered Bank Has The Edge, 0.055% Interest Rate Is Given.

Deposit, One Month Is The Most Advantage Of Regular Rates Of Chinese Banks To Give 0.1%, And HSBC Is Only 0.04%; 3 Months Deposit Interest Rates Have An Advantage Is That Chinese Banks And Citigroup, Given An Interest Rate Of 0.25%; 6 Month Time Deposit Interest Rate Is The Most Advantage Of Uob, Reached 0.6%, While Chinese Banks And The Hang Seng Bank, The Bank Is Given A 0.5% Interest Rate. If The Deposit Time Stretched To 1 Year, Uob Give 1% Interest Rates Will Show A Larger Appeal; Two-Year Hk Deposit Varieties, General And Foreign Banks Have No This Item, Only HSBC Hk $2 Years Time Deposit, The Interest Rate Of 0.75%.

The Whole, Chinese Banks Have Advantages Are Obvious, But The Foreign Capital Bank Activity Price Is Also Worthy Of Attention, Standard Chartered Bank For VIP Customers, For Each Type Of Deposit Is 0.05 ~ 0.1% Interest Rates To Rise, Such As The One-Year Deposit Rate At 0.65%, Hong Kong To A Maximum Of 0.75%, Of Standard Chartered Bank 13 Months Interest Rates On A Regular Basis, Is Up To 1%. Uob For Hk $13 Months Also Have Higher Rates Of 1.6% Discount.

In Addition, From The Perspective Of The Product Term, Citigroup Is Given Two Months 0.05% Of The Features For Interest Rates, Uob Provides The Choice, Also Has 2 Weeks For An Interest Rate Of 0.01%.

Hk Deposit Note Two Details

HKD Current And Time Deposits, Is Holding A Hk Friend Conventional Financing Channels, In Addition To Compare The Level Of Interest Rates, Convenience, Such As Threshold Level Also Need To Pay Attention To.

The First Foreign Bank Hk Deposits Threshold. Such As Standard Chartered Bank Demand Deposits Threshold For $1 Or 20 Hong Kong Dollars, A $1000 Deposit Required Or The Equivalent In Other Currencies, And Through Online Bank Account, The Threshold Can Be As Low As $100. However, To Enjoy A Higher Standard Chartered To Live High Deposit, Threshold For 70000 Hong Kong Dollars.

Uob Current Account Corresponding To The Minimum Amount Of 100 Yuan Of Foreign Currency, Is 1000 Yuan, On A Regular Basis When Deposit Contract Expire Automatically Archived. HSBC Deposit Is The Minimum Original Deposit Of $2000 Or Equivalent, Notice Deposit Threshold Require RMB 50000 Or Equivalent.

Chinese Banks, By Contrast, Lower Threshold Of Savings, Generally Need To Open An Account On A Regular Basis Only 50 Yuan Or The Equivalent Of Not Less Than 100 Yuan.

Convenient Or Not Is One Of The Investors Should Pay Attention To More Problems. If The Amount Is Not Big, To Open A Foreign Bank Card Is Not Cost-Effective. Branches Of Foreign Banks Is Not Much, But Some Business Only For Parts, More Troublesome.

Some Foreign Banks, However, There Are Some Features Worthy Of Attention, Such As Citigroup Multi-Currency Current Deposit, A Bank Debit Card Unionpay ATM Withdrawals Can Be Free Charge In The Whole World, At The Same Time Support Acceptance Checks, Etc.

It Is Important To Note That Because Of The Foreign Currency Savings Rate Affected By The International Financial Market, Investor Interest Rates, Etc, The Changes Are Frequent, And The Rise And Fall, Investors Should Shop Around Before Deposited In The Foreign Exchange, Guarantee Deposit For Maximum Profit.

Channel 2: QDII Funds A Public Offering Of QDII Can Only Hk $Subscription Before Buy Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) Fund Can Only Use The Renminbi, The Dollar Can Buy Now, One Can Use The Hk Purchase Of QDII Funds, Foreign Currency Assets For Investors To Do Offer More Options.

Current 106 QDII (Rating Fund, Currency Types Are Separate), In 88 Only By Yuan Trading, 17 Only Can Directly Deal With The U.S. Dollar, Only Recruit Trademark Corporation Income Funds, Support For The Yuan, Hk $$, Subscribe.

It Is Understood That Recruit Trademark Corporation Income Fund Investment Target For The S&Amp;P Dividend Index, Stocks In The S&Amp;P 1500 Dividend Growth Of Not Less Than 20 Years In A Row And Blue-Chip Companies With Good Liquidity.

It Is Important To Note That Will Buy QDII In Exchange Rate Risk, But The Use Of Foreign Currency To Directly Purchase Relatively, Is More Advantageous To The Principal Of The Value. According To The Personage Inside Course Of Study, Whether The Dollar Or Hk Explain Buy QDII, Difference Is Not Big, Because Hk Pegged To The Dollar, Two Kind Of Currency Movements Are Very Close. General Is To Invest In Overseas Assets And QDII, Namely The Use Of The Renminbi Subscription Will Be Converted Into Dollars, Hong Kong Dollars Or Other Currencies, If It Is Special QDII Investment In America Or The Hong Kong Market, Direct Purchase In Us Or Hk Dollars, The Currency Factor Has Been Borne By The Fund’S Assets, Less Affected By Currency Movements. But In RMB For The QDII Is More Need To Consider Exchange Rate Changes.

In Fact, The Foreign Currency Financial Tools Is Very Limited, And Earnings Are Generally Lower, For Some Investors Willing To Take Risks, Can Be Directly Involved In The Equity Markets In The United States, To Gain Greater Benefits. The Personage Inside Course Of Study Says, The Future QDII Fund May Be In Hong Kong Dollars, The Dollar Currencies Such As The Direct Purchase, Ordinary Investors Of Foreign Currency To Subscribe The QDII Products Will Be More.

Channel 3: Hk $Bank Wealth Management Products Overall Revenue This Year By More Than 2%

Compared To Hk On A Regular Basis And Deposits, The Bank Launched The Hk Financial Product More Attractive, Since This Year The Average Yield Of 2.07%.

September Average 2.01%

Hk Financial Product Is Conventional Varieties Of Bank Of Foreign Currency Financial Products, But The Yield Is Not High. , According To Data Released In September 22 With Only 2.01% Of The Average For This Kind Of Product, But Better Than Hong Kong Dollars Deposit Account.

Concrete, Last Week Issued 7 HKD Financial Product, An Average Yield Of 2.01%, Compared With An Average Yield Is Close To 5% Of The Australian Wealth Management Products. Since This Year, Hong Kong Financial Product Basic Between 1.8% ~ 2.5% Yields, But Has Improved, Compared With 2013 Issued Last Year, 364 Hong Kong Dollars Products Overall Yield Is Only 1.26%.

Although Income Is General, But Hk Finance Yield Gap Is Still Large, In September 22 Issue Of The Product, The Duration Is 1 Years Same Product, The Highest Expected Return Of 3.30%, And The Lowest Is Only 1.5%. The Same Situation Also Appears In 3 Months, 6 Months Duration Of Products.

Higher Yielding Is Everbright Bank (601818, Shares) Of The ‘Plan A’ Issue 20 Sunshine Finance Product 4 And 19 Products 4, Yields Are 3.3%, Duration Of 365 Days And 360 Days Respectively. China Merchants Bank (600036, Shares) Golden Sunflower – ZhaoYin Up Chunks Of The Famous Hong Kong Dollars Into Gold Series Is Good Also, The Yield Over 2.5%.

From The Historical Data, Once Appear Hk Financial Product Yield More Than 30% Of The Time. Wind Data Statistics Since 2007 Issue Of The 2818 Products, 27 Only The Highest Expected Return Product Was Over 10%. One Of The Highest Is Shenzhen Development Bank Poly Huibao Beyond Plan 5, 2007 – Type Fund Basket, 100% Of The Capital Preservation, Maximum Yield Is 38%, Bailable Period Is 2 Years. Was Also Launched In 2007, Shenzhen Development Bank ‘Surplus Abundant Wealth’ 0706 – H Share And Win-Win, Expected Yield Reached 33%. In Addition To Hang Seng Bank, Societe Generale (601166, Shares), Ping An Bank (000001, Shares), Bank Of Communications (601328, Shares), China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank (600016, Shares) Products Such As The Highest Yield More Than 10%, Most Of These Products Is Issued In 2007, 2008.

The Discretion Of The Financial Product Yields And The Benchmark Interest Rate Level, Hk Benchmark Interest Rate Is Not High, Will Lead To Financial Product Yield Is Low. Yield Of Periodic Fluctuation Happens, However, That Related To Foreign Investment Projects. To Have Diversified Asset Allocation Plan, Or With Overseas Purchase, Study Abroad, Immigration Requirements Such As Investors, Can Choose Higher Expected Return On The Market To Buy Foreign Currency Financial Products.

Focus On The Four Problems

Hk Financial Investment Products, Pay Attention To The Product To, Rates, Liquidity And Other Details.

Wealth Management Products To Directly Determines The Product Yields, As Investors Focus On The First Priority. Hk Product Variety Is More, Chinese Banks Issued By The Pound Products Mainly Invest In Bonds, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Paper And Other Varieties Of The Market, About 90% Of The Products Are Guaranteed Benefits. However, A Lot Of Hk Financial Product Exists Back To The Situation Of The Domestic Market.

In Addition, There Are Some Lines Of Chinese And Foreign Structured Products, Such As Hook Some Funds And Stocks In Hong Kong, The Risk Of This Kind Of Products Are Unable To Achieve Earnings.

Second, The Need To Focus On The Threshold Of The Hk Financial Product, From The Point Of A Few Products On Sale In September, Basic Around Hk $60000 Threshold, Some Agreement Deposit For 1000 Hong Kong Dollars, The Threshold Is Low. Is There A Bank Special Provisions, Purchase Amount Is Large, The Yield Is Higher Also.

Third, In Addition To The Threshold, Cost Is Also Worth Attention. Generally Speaking, The Hk Financial Product Overall Cost Is Not High, Usually 0.4% Or 0.45% Of The Sales Commission, Also Has The Bank Does Not Charge A Fee, Custody, Asset Management Fee Of 0.8% 0.05%, These Costs Are Not Usually Accumulated Charge. Involving The Variety Of The Trust, The Trust Fee Charging 0.06% A Year.

Fourth, Liquidity, Hk Products Often Do Not Have A Foreclosure In Advance. Investors Need To Observe The Early Termination Conditions, Some Of Them Are In Accordance With The 3 M Hk Hong Kong Interbank Lending Rates Hibor (3 M) To Decide, Investors Need To Pay Close Attention To.

Hk Financial Products, In Addition, The Investment Need To Combine Interest Rate And Exchange Rate Considering – Consider Interest Rates In The Short Term, Considering The Exchange Rate For A Long Time. From The Perspective Of Asset Allocation, Only Hold Renminbi Assets To Hedge Risk, Can Layout Some Hong Kong Dollars, With Wealth Management Products In Order To Realize Their Value.

Notice About The International Business Sector Related Business Rules

Each Member Units:

Approved By The People’S Bank Of China, The Shanghai Gold Exchange (Hereinafter Referred To As “Exchange”) Actively Pushing Forward The Construction Of The International Business Sector To Set Up And Authorized Shanghai International Gold Trading Center Co., LTD. (Hereinafter Referred To As The International Center) Centralized Management Exchange International Business.


In Order To Strengthen The Management Of The International Business Sector, Safeguard The Legitimate Rights And Interests Of Market Participants, And Prevent Market Risks, Exchange And International Center For The Existing Of The Shanghai Gold Exchange Spot Trading Rules And Relevant Regulations Made A Comprehensive Revision, The New And Perfect A Series Of International Business Management Approach And Detailed Rules For The Implementation, Now Be Released.

Exchange Revised Or New Business Rules:

The Serial Number Rule Name 1 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Spot Trading Rules 2 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Spot Trading Fund Settlement Rules 3 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Spot Trading Delivery Conditions 4 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Measures For The Administration 5 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Membership Management Approach 6 The Shanghai Gold Exchange International Member Management Rules 7 The Shanghai Gold Exchange International Board Delivery Business Operating Guidelines 8 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Safekeeping Measures For The Management Of Library 9 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Are Detailed Rules For The Implementation Fee System 10 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Violation Default Processing Method 11 The Shanghai Gold Exchange Management Method With Pledge 12 Measures For The Administration Of The Shanghai Gold Exchange Physical On Loan

New Business Rules Formulated By The International Center:

The Serial Number Rule Name 1 Shanghai Gold Trading Center Of International Business Management Approach 2 Fund Settlement Measures For The Administration Of Shanghai International Gold Trading Center 3 Shanghai International Gold Trading Center Client Funds Closed Detailed Rules For The Implementation Of Business Operation

The Business Rules Since The Date Of The International Business Sector Run On A Trial Basis.


The Shanghai Gold Exchange

International Gold Rally Is Expected To Extend Upwards

Gold Investment Network – October 22, The Previous Session Gold Prices To Reach $1255 An Ounce, Highest Lowest Is $1245.2 An Ounce, Closed At $1249.1 An Ounce.


Switzerland On November 30, Save Our Swiss Gold Initiative To Vote, If The Initiative Through, Will Force The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Gold Held In At Least 20% Of The Proportion Of Their Assets. In A Recent Poll, Nearly Half Of The People Support The Referendum.

In This Regard, Barclays Capital Thinks, Even If The Referendum, Also Will Not Stand In The Way Of Switzerland’S Central Bank Independence, But It Will Change Its Use Of Unconventional Policies To Expand The Power Of The Balance Sheet.

Barclays Said, If The Referendum, The Promise Of The Swiss National Bank To Defend The Euro Lower Limit Strength Will Be Weakened.

Barclays Added: This Is The Result Of, The Swiss National Bank To Follow The European Central Bank (ECB) Is Introduced Into The Possibility Of A Negative Deposit Rate May Be Increased.

Barclays Said The Gold Market Is Very Concerned About The Referendum, But The Swiss National Bank Will Gradually Meet The Requirements Of The Referendum Within Five Years, We Think That This Means That The Gold Price Volatility Is Limited. If The Referendum, May Improve The Long-Term Equilibrium Of Gold Prices.

To Enter The Third Session This Week, Basic Price Movements In The Price Of Gold Change, Did Not See The Wide Market Formation, 1250 Integer Mark Located At Today’S Gold Prices Temporarily Did Not Get A Hit, But From The Perspective Of The Development Track Of The International Gold Price, International Gold Prices Buying Quantity Seems To Be No Less, See Dish In Overbought Phenomenon Also Maintain, Expected Late International Gold Prices Still Has The Potential To Rebound.

Late Such As Europe And The United States The Effect Of The News Without Appear Carry Gold, Add Beauty To The Weakness Of The Continued, Indication Of The Price Of Gold Prices Should Still Can Continue Effective Gains In Early Trading.

Today’S Gold Prices Continue To 1250 Integer Bit Above Further Lift Up Gradually. Like The Beautiful Gold Today Can Successfully Breached 1250 Integer Resistance, Gold Rally Should Can Effectively Extend Upwards.

Gold Cast Net (Http://Www.Cngold.Org) Gold Market, According To The Center Of Beijing Time 18:59, Today’S Spot Gold Prices To $1246.07 An Ounce.

The Referendum On The Swiss Gold Behind The Swiss Franc And The Euro Will Go?

On 30 November This Year On Its Gold Reserves, Switzerland It Is Gold Bulls Most Beautiful A Beautiful Dream, If Passed, The Swiss National Bank Must Be Over The Next Five Years To Buy 1500 Tons Of Gold, The Gold Will Be Very Strong.

The Referendum Law Also Stipulates That The Swiss National Bank After Buying Gold, Shall Not Sell Any Gold, Gold Reserves Of Foreign Exchange Reserves Must Be At Least 20%.

Gold Reserves (Switzerland)

The SNB’S Current Foreign Exchange Reserves Is So Huge Amount Is Due To The Financial Crisis In 2008 And Since Then The Eurozone Crisis, Especially The Latter. Since The Collapse Of Lehman Brothers And The Eurozone Debt Turmoil, Many Account Holders And Investors To Remove Assets From The Euro Zone, In Switzerland.

(Swiss Foreign-Exchange Reserves)

Many Even Assets Into A More Safe And More Independent Of The Swiss Franc, Which Makes The Swiss Franc To Europe Appeared To Rise Sharply.

This Makes The Swiss Products And Services More Expensive Than The Euro Zone, To Switzerland To Recession.

(Swiss GDP)

In Addition, A Stronger Currency Deflation, Switzerland, And After The Financial Crisis Had Seen Almost Identical.

Inflation (Switzerland)

The Swiss National Bank Of The Swiss Franc Appreciation Of Nature Is Not Very Satisfactory, So Fixed Exchange Rates Between It And The Euro, And To Maintain A Fixed Exchange Rate, The Swiss National Bank Had To Sell Swiss Francs To Buy Euro, Also Has Made A Dramatic Rise In The Level Of Their Foreign Exchange.

(The Euro Against The Swiss Franc)

If The Referendum, Switzerland’S Central Bank Is Unlikely To Use Swiss Francs To Buy Gold, Because Of The Increase Of The Balance Sheet Will Force It To Buy More Gold.

Therefore, The Swiss National Bank Will Have To Sell Something Else To Buy Gold. The Most Likely Is, Of Course, Foreign Exchange, Especially The Euro, Then It Will Bring Pressure For Exchange Rate Between The Euro And The Swiss Franc.

In Addition, Once The Euro And The Swiss National Bank If The Exchange Rate Between In Order To Maintain The Euro And The Swiss Franc Will Have To Buy More Euros, Then Also Need To Buy More Gold. In The Case Of The European Central Bank Will Begin To QE, The Euro Is Likely To Happen.

So In This Case, Investment The Masters Would Do Much Gold Euro For The Swiss Franc. If The Swiss Central Bank To Buy A Lot Of The Euro Fell Back To Maintain, Then Can Buy Gold, Gold Will Naturally Get A Promotion. And If The Swiss National Bank To Abandon Rate To Maintain, No Longer Buy Gold, Euro Against The Swiss Franc Will Crash.

As A Result, The Swiss Gold Referendum On Long-Term Euro/Swiss Franc Maintain Apparently Unwell.

In The Long Term, Can’T Offer Any Gold Regulation Will Force The SNB Slowly Toward 100% Holding Gold. If The Swiss Bank’S Assets Is Five Times The Current Level Of Growth, And Then Back To The Original Level, The Swiss National Bank Will Only Holding Gold. Also Basic Can’T Do Anything, Especially In The Face Of Deflationary Pressures.

Currency In A Consolidation Pattern For The Time Being Looking Forward To More News

On Wednesday (September 10) New York Time, Global Currency Basic Mired In A Narrow Consolidation Pattern. Days From The Day The World Without Can Play A Crucial Data About Market Movements, While National Central Bank Officials Talk While The Kids, But Bright Spot Is Limited, Investors And Therefore Will Continue To Hope For Next Tuesday To Wednesday, September 16 And 17) Of The Fed’S Policy Meeting As A Result, Before This, If No More Black Swans, Markets Or To Maintain Calm.

The European Central Bank Unexpectedly Cut Interest Rates Last Week And Start The ABS Has Been Digested By The Market, And Investors Pay More Attention To The European Central Bank Could Then As Expected The From All Walks Of Life, In The Following We Will Continue To Strengthen Policy Easing (QE) Rescue In Order To Achieve The Goal, But On The Day Of The European Central Bank Officials Apparently Does Not Look Good.

The European Central Bank Chief’S Shi (Yves Mersch) Said In A Speech On Wednesday, The European Central Bank Have Launched Before Purchase Asset-Backed Securities (ABS), Not The So-Called Quantitative Easing, And That Doesn’T Mean That The European Central Bank Will Immediately Launched Quantitative Easing In The Following.

Mr Shi In His Speech To QE This Expected To Be Down, Said The European Central Bank In The Process Of Implementation Of QE Would Still Face Considerable Difficulties In Terms Of Procedures And Legal Theory. He Also Stressed That The Fed And The Bank Of England Has Introduced By The QE Action, Under The Background Of Economy And Policy In The Euro Area And Cannot Be Copied Intact, And In The Euro Zone Bond Yields Also Have Held Steady At A Record Low, QE To Reduce Social Cost Of Financing Has Practical Effect To Promote Credit And Investment Activities, Is Also A Huge Question.

And Speak To The Other European Central Bank Officials, Mr Shi Also Stressed That If The Eurozone Member States Of The Government In The Economic And Fiscal Reforms Continued Inaction Attitude, So The European Central Bank Easing Monetary Policy Alone Is Unable To Save The Region’S Economy.

And The European Central Bank Officials For QE Don’T Catch A Cold At The Same Time, The Situation In Ukraine Toward Improving Conditions Also Block The Euro Against The Dollar To Fall Further. Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws (Petro Poroshenko) On Wednesday (September 10) Points Out That In Eastern Ukraine, Russia Has Removed Most Of The Army, This Also Means That The Parties To Achieve The Effect Of The Ceasefire Agreement Last Week There Is A Lot Of Hope Will Continue To Continue In The Following.

Polo Draws In The Cabinet Statement Pointed Out That The Current Intelligence Shows That The Invasion Of 70% Of The Russian Army Has Removed Within The Territory Of Ukraine. Had Been Accused Russia To Ukraine And Western In Ukraine For The Tens Of Thousands Of Troops, And Caused Great Loss In The Last Month To Ukraine, But Russia To Ukraine Had Been Refused To Admit To Send Army Combat, Into The Country’S Military Is Voluntary.


Polo Draws And Points Out That Russia Withdraw Active Action Prospects For Peace In The Eastern Ukraine Become More Optimistic, But At Present, The West Has Yet To Say In This Situation. Earlier, The European Union Announced A Moratorium On The Implementation Of Sanctions Against Russia Further Decision, To See The Complete Withdrawal Of State Not Eastern Ukraine Sincerity.

European Union’S Diplomatic Representative, Not On Whether To Need To Russia On Wednesday To Carry Out The Draft Completed Before Agreeing On A New Round Of Sanctions. Foreign Delegates Pointed Out That While Germany Has Repeatedly Urged The European Union To Implement A New Round Of Sanctions Against Russia Measures As Soon As Possible, But Some Other Countries, Points Out That A Ceasefire Agreement With Ukraine Is Still Generally To Get So A New Round Of Sanctions Against Russia Measures Or May Continue To Put On Hold For A Period Of Time, In Order To Test.

Make The Country’S Situation In Ukraine Last Week Agreed To A Cease-Fire Attention Degree And Influence Under The Background Of Declining, Investors Are Increasingly Turning Its Attention To Since Scottish Independence Referendum. Scotland On September 18, A Referendum On Whether To Remain In The UK Or On Its Own Independence, And After A Unconfirmed Online Poll, With The Sole Camp, Enjoys A 53.9% Approval Rating. Some Well-Known Institutions Before Polls Also Show That, With The Sole Camp Against Independence Camp’S Approval Rating. This Makes The Market Investors Have Begun To Since The Possibility Of Conditions For A Rainy Day.

The Bank Of England Governor Carney (Mark Carney) On Wednesday (September 10) Said That If After The Scottish Independence, Choice In Not Struck A Deal With British Into The Other Day Under The Condition Of Continue To Use The Pound As Currency, The New Scottish Central Banks Will Require A Lot Of Sterling Reserves.

He Also Pointed Out That After Independence Between Scotland And Other Parts Of The UK May Occur Between Economic Boundary. The Economic Activity In The Region Will Bring Great Inconvenience. And Scotland’S Central Bank Since May Also Need To Be At Least Equivalent To 25% Of Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Of Sterling Reserves, Satisfying The Basic Economic Activity Needs. , He Points Out, This Is According To The Situation Of The Baltic States Estimates, The Country’S Financial System Is Relatively Simple, Economy Convergence With The Eurozone Countries.

And Scotland For Independence, The Prospect Of The Move Could Trigger A Domino Effect Across Europe Range. Spanish Catalonia Planned Referendum On Independence In November, The Region’S Parliament Is Expected To Be Passed A Bill Later This Month To Hold A Referendum. The Spanish Government Is Expected To Be Put Forward To The Constitutional Court Against A Referendum. As A Result Of Further Influence May Still Be Down Against The Euro Exchange Rate.

In Addition, The Pattern Of Commodity Currency Under Pressure Is Still Continue. Although, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang On Wednesday (September 10) Stressed That China’S Growth This Year Still Can Reach 7.5%, And Structural Reforms Will Also Continue, This Makes The Investor Sentiment Has Improved. But The Market Is Still In China’S Economy Can Not Under The Help Of Government Stimulus Policies Help To Maintain Strong Have Doubts, This Makes Commodity Prices Remain Under Pressure.

The Australian Dollar In Under The Condition Of Iron Ore Prices Remain Under Pressure, At The Same Time, Investors In The Case Of The Federal Reserve Will Raise Interest Rates Soon Carry No Longer Borrow $For Operation, Also Makes A Sharp Drop In Demand In The Australian Dollar. In Addition, The Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate, On The Other Hand, Because The Price Of Crude Oil Falling Under Pressure, In The Case Of U.S. Oil Inventories Are Still High, As One Of The Main Oil Supply Countries In The United States Canada Also Faces Considerable Outlet Pressure.

In Addition, The New RMB Exchange Rate Is Also Under Pressure After The Fed Released In Interest Rates During The Late Decision. New Zealand The Fed Held Rates Unchanged At 3.5% On The Day, And Said It Would Keep Interest Rates Unchanged Until Next April. At The Same Time, The Fed Also Emphasizes New RMB Exchange Rate Is Still Too High, Make New RMB Exchange Rate Is Further Under Pressure. New Zealand The Fed Said The Current New RMB Exchange Rate Is Still Too High And Unsustainable, In The Following Materials Will Greatly Weaken Further, And Further Weakness In New Yuan, After The Country’S Export Levels Will Increase, Its Material And Its Economy Plays A Leading Role.

, Before The Fed, In January Of This Year In New Zealand First Entered In All The Developed Economies, The Central Bank Rate Rises, As Home Prices Rise Too Fast, The Fed’S New Zealand Thus Explained That Housing Prices From Rising Too Fast Is The Post-Earthquake Reconstruction Demand And The Effects Of A Large Number Of New Immigrants, And This Side Effect In The Current Has Been Basically Got The Digestion.

And Shorting The Euro? Gold And Silver To See Whether The CPI In The United States

The Session Market Will Usher In Big Us CPI Data, The Euro Yesterday Dropped At High Prices For Short Is Seductive, Long Shanghai Gold And Make The Afternoon With Operational Space. In This Article, We Will In The United States Under The Background Of Inflation Data, To Analysis.

The Euro/Dollar

The Key Events: The CPI

Manner Of The Session Beijing Time, The United States Will Be Released On September The Consumer Price Index (CPI). Market Expectations Are Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Rose 1.6%, Not Seasonally Adjusted Core Rising At An Annual Rate Of 1.7%, Seasonally Adjusted Rate Unchanged After Month, Core Month After Seasonally Adjusted Rate Of Rise 0.1%.

The Data Released By The U.S. Department Of Labor, Is A Measure Of The Selected A Basket Of Consumer Goods Purchase Price Index, It Is Reflect The Products And Services Related To The Residents’ Life Calculated Price, Retail Price Index Usually Observed Inflation As An Important Indicator.

Recent Performance: Either Under Short Again?

Euro/Dollar High Yesterday Rushed Down The Market Is Very Attractive, If Short Now Also Nothing Important. But Always Worried That The Euro Would Seem Underground 1.2620 Preliminary Support.

Not So, For Investors Risk Tolerance Level Is Higher, Can Be Empty, Stop In Yesterday’S Highs Above 1.2845, Target Point To 1.2640 And 1.2640. And Relatively Cautious Investors Can Such As Said Before 1.2620 On The Day Figure Were Strong Wear Short Again.

CPI Data Is Vital To The Days Of The United States. If The Data Is Positive, Then The Euro/Dollar Will Further Decline. But If, As Weak Retail Sales Before The Accident, The Dollar Will Face Selling Risk Again.

In Addition, The Session Suggested That Investors Need To Focus On The Bank Of England’S Meeting Minutes. But Since He Served As Governor Of The Bank Of England, The Bank’S Style Is Famous For Its Volatile, So The Summary Of The Content Is Hard To Guess, Recommends That Investors Play It By Ear.

Precious Metals

Gold: Out Of A Shanghai But Not That Long

Said Before If The Price Of Gold In The Past Few Trading Days To Develop A False Breakout, Near 1250 Days To Figure Out Long Shanghai, May Be A More Obvious Bearish Signal. As Was The Case With The Yesterday. But It Has Encountered A Problem, It Is Yesterday’S Long Shanghai Not Long Enough, It Is Recommended That Investors Such As Short Again After The Session If Can Lower More Insurance, The Target Can Again To Line 1187.

In Terms Of Days, The CPI May Be A Good Reason To Lower Prices, If The Data Can Behave More Than Expected. Although Inflation Is Not The Only Factors To Consider When To Raise Interest Rates By The Federal Reserve, But Higher Inflation Will Inevitably Force The Fed To Take Normal Monetary Policy Much Earlier.

Silver: Touch 17.60 Stop

Silver Plate With High Gold Rush Back Yesterday, But Hit The Previous Short Stop 17.60. Therefore, At Present Can Only Stop On The Sidelines.

Non-Agricultural 2.0 Debut In Ice Why Get Fed Push?

On Monday This Week (6 October) Has Attracted Much Attention In The Job Market Condition Index (LMCI) Published For The First Time In Beijing Time 22:00 At Night, The Index Released Prior To Market Watches, Referred To As The Upgrade Version Of Non-Agricultural Data, The Index Is Designed To Fully Reflect The Status Of The Job Market.

The Federal Reserve Will Begin From Today (6 October) 22:00 LMCI Regularly Publish The Labor Market Situation Index, Which Announced In Non-Agricultural Report After The First Trading Day Of Each Month, Before The Fed Had Not Regularly Publish The Index. LMCI Comprehensive 19 In The Labor Market Is The Fed Index And Become A New Model, Can Be More Comprehensive, More To Reflect The Trend Of The Labor Market.

But The Market Investors Do Not Seem To Give Too Much Attention, The Data Was Released, Only Slightly Bearish The Dollar Index, Impact On The Currency Price Is Lesser, Did Not Cause Much Volatility. It Seems To Be As Non-Agricultural Market, Highly Accepted This Measure, It Seems Still Need Time.

Actually From Since April, The Fed Is On The Job Market Condition Index (LMCI). In April, According To Data Released LMCI Since The Beginning Of The Year For Wandering Around 4. Since July 2009, The Data Is Positive. Ever Since The Dawn Of The Statistical Mean Value Is 4.9, Which Showed A Drop In Recent Data. From The Perspective Of A Yuan Regression Analysis, The Non-Farm Payrolls Data Could Explain 63% Of The Private Enterprises LMCI. LMCI Released In April, For Example, Is 6.3, Through The Regression Calculation, Equivalent To Non-Agricultural Employment Population Increase Of 275000 Private Enterprises; With The Actual Released 278000 People Have Been Very Close.

After From April To The Job Market Trends, Bank Of America Merrill Lynch Is Expected To Announced On October 6, LMCI Readings At About 5. Through The Calculation Of The Bank, When 300000 Non-Agricultural Private Employment Population Is Increasing, The Corresponding LMCI Index Should Be Around 7. If LMCI Can Reach That Level, Means That The Job Market There Was A Significant Momentum Signal.

And Released From The Actual Value Is Only 2.5, Far Below The Bank Of America Merrill Lynch Forecasts, Suggesting That The Degree Of Overall Recovery Of The Job Market Does Not Seem To Be As Good Market Investors Think.

After Data, MW Analyst Steve Goldstein Comments Pointed Out That The Fed’S New Employment Index, Labor Market Conditions (LMCI) September 2.5, Index Of 2.0 In August. This Marks The Combined With The Index Of 19 Employment Indicators Released For The First Time. The Index Hit A 2014 Also The Second Lowest Level, Show That This Month In The Job Market Slowdown Momentum. Since 2009 The Index Turned Positive, Their Average Of 4.77.

Non-Farm Contradiction Makes LMCI Decide

The Contradiction Between Non-Agricultural Report Itself Also Become LMCI A Cause Of Concern. The U.S. Department Of Labor Data Show That The United States On September Non-Farm Payrolls Unexpected Strength In 248000, The Unemployment Rate Fell To A Six-Year Low 5.9%, Performance Is Very Beautiful. But The Bad News Is That Labor Force Participation Rates In September Fell

To 62.7%, Almost 36 Years (Since February 1978) Minimum; This Means That Not Involved In The Job Market Of The U.S. Population Has Reached 92.6 Million People, A Record High.

LMCI There Will Also Be Weakened From The Another Level Of Non-Agricultural Market Influence, As The Most Important Data, Especially At The End Of The Fed’S QE Will Hike, Non-Agricultural Increasingly Prominent Defects, Conveniently Introduced LMCI, The Fed Is Also Intended To Comprehensive Assessment Of The Job Market, Make The Future More Rate Hikes Of Claim.

Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen Worked In August 22 At The Global Central Bank’S Annual Meeting, Referring To The Index, Called The Index To The Fall In The Unemployment Rate, Better Reflect The Degree Of The Weakness In The Labor Market. She Said At The Time, According To The Target, The U.S. Labor Market In The Past Year Has Been Improved, But The Current Unemployment Situation Really Exaggerate The Overall Situation Of The Labor Market.

LMCI Covers The Unemployment, The Main Measures, Including The Changes Of Unemployment And Employment, Wages, Business And Consumer Surveys, Labor Participation Rate, Want How Long To Full-Time Employment And The Number Of Part-Time Workers To Resign, And So On. Included In The Following Table Lists The LMCI 19 Labor Market Indicators, And Its Correlation With LMCI 12 Months.

LMCI Is Not A Level, It Is A Change In Value Measure, The Following Table Is To 4 Quarter Since 1997 Values Obtained From The Data Set Into The Model, The Last Post Contains The Value Of The First Quarter Of 2014. Each Column Represent The Average Level In The Past Six Months, LMCI Changes With The Us National Bureau Of Economic Research Defined By The NBER Business Cycle Fits Very Well. Usually At The Time Of Recession, LMCI Will Decline, Such As The Grey Part Of The Picture Below.

Since The Financial Crisis Is Shown In The Figure Below LMCI Monthly Change Value, We See That LMCI Second Quarter Began To Decline From 2007, And Began To Deteriorate Dramatically In Late 2008 And Early 2008. But The Index From The Second Half Of 2009 Began To Improve, But For Now, The Recovery Process Is Not Smooth, Especially In The Second Quarter Of 2012. Earlier This Year, LMCI Index Fell Slightly, Mainly Affected By Cold Weather, But In Recent Months, The Index Rebounded Again.

Why LMCI Get Fed Push?

The Launch Of The Fed’S LMCI Is Expected To Weaken The Influence Of Non-Agricultural Report. According To Merrill Lynch Bofa, Considering The Fed Said It Will More Reference Data Series In The Job Market, Therefore LMCI Could Get Higher Attention.

September Data Released Recently, For Example, Non-Farm Payrolls Surge In 248000, The Unemployment Rate Fell To A Six Year Low Of 5.9%, The Surface Is Very Beautiful, But The Employment Participation Rate Has Dropped To 62.7% To Its Lowest Level Since 1978. The Fed’S Decision, Will Continue To Monitor The Overall Situation Of The Labor Market, Especially The Wage Growth And Changes In Employment Participation Rate.

Since The Past Few Years, The Fed Chairman Yellen And Other Officials Are Working To Have The New Indicators, Thus In Non-Agricultural Single Index On The Basis Of Better Employment Situation.

Labor Market Conditions Is A Comprehensive Index, The Index Will Be Obtained From The 19 Indexes. That Includes Such Important Indexes And Employment Plan From Unemployment Survey Such Small Target. Labor Market Conditions Index, In Order To Provide A More Comprehensive Labor Market.

Jefferies Economist Thomas Simons Said New Indicators In The Coming Months Will Play A Key Role, Both Inside The Fed And Market Participants Will Carefully Assess The Index’S Influence.

The Federal Reserve Said On Its Website, The New Labor Market Conditions Index Will Be On The First Monday After The Monthly Payroll Of Around 10 O ‘Clock In The Morning. Because Are Still In Research Stage, However, Is Not Belong To The Official Data, So If There Is Delay The Release Or Calculate Adjustment Will Not Be Informed In Advance.

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch, Points Out That Considering The Fed Said It Will More Reference Data Series In The Job Market, And That The Fed’S New Push LMCI Can Get Higher Attention In The Market.

Vanguard Analyst Vytas Maciulis, According To The U.S. Labor Market Continues To Improve, Strong Data For September This Year The Average Monthly New 227000 Non-Farm Payrolls. But Declining Labor Force Participation Rate And Slow Wage Growth Is Still A Concern About The Recent Market. In Monetary Policy Decision, The Fed Will Continue To Monitor The Labor Market, Especially The Wage Growth.

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) On Saturday (October 4) To Provide Customers In A Report On LMCI Composition And Use Of The Method Are Analyzed, And Reveal Some Characteristics Of LMCI.

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch, Said The Labor Market Condition Index (LMCI) Is That The Fed Is Based On The 19Th The Index Integrated Into One Model. Among Them, The Unemployment Rate And The Weight Of Non-Farm Payrolls Data Private Enterprises Is Very High, But This Model Also Takes Into Account The Other Factors, Such As JOLTS Vacancies, Part-Time Population. The Index Released A Value Changes, Rather Than The Level Of Value.

LMCI Degree To The Health Of The Labor Market Provides A Comprehensive Description, To Eliminate The Individual Tracing Index Of The Noise. Considering The Fed Said It Will More Reference Data Series In The Job Market, We Believe That The Index Can Achieve Higher Attention In The Market.

In Addition On The Job Market Condition Index (LMCI) Need Special Attention Is That, Every Time The Index Released May Modify The Whole Historical Data

, Which Is The Lowest In April And May 1980, To 43.1; Is The Highest In September 1983, 28.4; Since August 1976. Average Value Is 19.22, 2008, The Financial Crisis In 2013, The Average Is 4.14, 2014, The Average Is 4.07. The Index Combines 19 Employment Related Indicators.

Foreign Exchange Currency Facing Reshuffle The Dollar Could Ride QE4 Hitching A Ride


Compared With In The Third Quarter, The Dollar Index In October After Suffered Heavy, Over The Past Two Weeks Is Down Nearly 2%. The Market Panic And The Transformation Of The Central Bank’S Policy, It Seems That The Currency Pattern Facing Reshuffle After October. Market Has Entered The End Of October, The International Foreign Exchange Market To Dominate The Us Dollar Has This Week, Is Our Common Expectation.

The Dollar Against A Basket Of Major Currencies Last Friday (October 17) Edged Up, After A Week Of Turmoil, Strong U.S. Consumer Confidence Data Eased Market Unease. Last Friday, According To A Report Released By The Thomson Reuters/University Of Michigan U.S. Consumer Confidence Index For October 86.4, Its Highest Since July 2007, The Performance Is Better Than Expected.

Data Eased Market Concerns, Early Last Week, Worries About Global Economic Health In Stocks, Bonds And Currency Caused Quite A Stir. Last Wednesday, The Dollar Against The Euro And The Swiss Franc Hit A Three-Week Low. Against The Yen Fell To Their Lowest Level In More Than A Month.

Recently, The Dollar Index Rise, Like The Rainbow To The End Of September To Realize Continuous Rise In 11 Weeks, The Longest Streak Record, $A New Bull Market Be Vividly Portrayed. Analysts Expect The Dollar In The Next Five Years Will Remain Strong, And Most Likely To Rise By 50%.

A Strong Dollar Is One Of The Biggest Bottom Spirit, From The Continuous Recovery Of The Economy. Both Jobs In Manufacturing, Real Estate, The American Economy The Trend Of Comprehensive Recovery Has Been Hard To Shake.

Affected By The Dollar And Us Interest Rates Expected, A Lot Of Money Will Be From A Global Return The United States. U.S. Stocks, Treasury And Other Dollar Assets Will Be Popular, Gold And Commodities Will Be Suppressed.

At Present, Emerging Markets With Large Dollar Debt, The Dollar Liquidity Shortage May Lead To Serious Debt Crisis Emerging Market Countries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Down More Than 866 Points In Five Days, Or About 5%, Americans Are A Little Bit Nervous. After Five Years Of Economic Instability, Eventually I Seem To Feel Everything Back On Track, But Many People Wondered Whether The Terrible Time Really Has Become A Thing Of The Past.

On The Face Of It, It Seems That Everything Is Going Well. The S&Amp;P 500 Index Rose More Than 30% Over The Past Two Years, The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Low In Six Years, Years Housing Starts Have Climbed 9% So Far, And Other Economic Indicators Also Shows That The Future Economic Outlook Is Bright.

Roubini Global Economics Institute (Roubini Global Economics), A Senior Research Director, Sheryl King Said: So Far, The Economic Performance Is Quite Good. She Thinks The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In 2015 Are Expected To Rise 3%, But The Premise Is The Fear Those Risks Will Not Appear, Make Recovery Derailed.

There Are Many Factors Could Be A Drag On Economic Growth, The Existing Five Major Problems That Economists Can’T Sleep.

At Present, Including The Fed’S Policy Change, Europe Might Fall Into A Recession, Japan’S Economic Malaise, China’S Growth Is Slowing, And Indulge In Wilful Persecution Of The Ebola Outbreak, Are In Trouble With Investors, And Trigger A Financial Market Turmoil, Several Years Have Not Seen Market Volatility.

Among Them, The Fed’S Monetary Policy This Week Became The One Of The Key Factors Influencing The Market. This Week Have No Less Than Eight Federal Reserve Officials Gave A Speech In Succession, And Williams And Brad Two Parts Of The Fed Chairman’S Speech Is The Most Conspicuous. Although Both No Decision To Vote This Year, In A Speech For The First Time To Throw Out The Concept Of The Future Will Impose QE4, Another Is That The Fed May Pause In October Cut QE Pace, The Market An Uproar. Their Tandem Speech Also Directly Caused The Dollar This Week.

In Addition To The Fed’S Policy Change, Global Panic Of Warming Also Once Occupied The Major Financial Media Headlines This Week. According To Data Released This Week, China And The UK Inflation Fell To A Low Of About Five Years, The Euro Zone’S Overall Inflation Rate For 12 Months In A Row In The Danger Zone, Greece, Italy And Spain Deflation, The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Fell To A Negative Value, The Weak Us Retail Sales And Manufacturing Activities, These Are Exacerbated By The Global Economic Growth, And Affect The Market’S Expectations Of The Main Central Bank’S Monetary Policy.

In Recent Days Is Severe Financial Market Volatility, Especially The Global Economic Slowdown, The United States A Series Of Economic Data Also Show That The Momentum Of Economic Growth Has Slowed, Risk Aversion Dominated The Market Gradually. In Such A Market Environment, The Direction Of The Fed Officials This Week To Talk Seems To Be, There Is A Certain Degree Of Position Shift.

Federal Reserve Two Region This Week The Fed Chairman And Brad Williams Thrown Out Two Doves Around The QE Monotheistic, The Market In October For Two Weeks After The Fed’S Decision, At That Time.

On The 15Th Of This Month, The United States San Francisco Fed President Williams Said, After See Continued Deflationary Expectations, It Says The Fed Into A New Round Of Asset Purchases Will Be Seriously Considered. He Also Said QE4 Is Possible. But He Gave His Speech, He Said, Only The Us Economic Outlook A Sharp Reversal, The Fed Will Consider To Restart The New Round Of Asset Purchases.

All Kinds Of Signs, Williams To The Dove Camp. Previously, He Belongs To The Standard In The Fed Officials Of The Centre. And Similarly, The Other One Does Not Belong To Dove Camp Before The St. Louis Fed President Bullard On Thursday Also Unexpectedly Dovish Comments, Compared With The Williams Slightly Illusory QE4 Speech, His Speech Is More Realistic, Think The Fed Should Be At The End Of October Resolution Stop QE.

For Those Who Need Hope To Get Information From The Federal Reserve Official Investors, This Week May Be Disappointed, As Before The Resolution Of Traditional Drama, The Federal Reserve Will Again This Week Into The Practice Of Communication Interruption Period, Only Have A Fed Governor Powell Spoke On Monday. The Federal Reserve Last Week Intensive Propaganda, Maybe Proved That They Really Want To Make Certain Changes In October Resolution. But More In The Near Resolution, Market Might Continue To Mining Policy Clues From The Economic Data.

Although The Fed’S First Focus Scarce, But Other Central Banks This Week To Watch. Published This Week In Australia And The Bank Of England Will Be The Last Policy Meeting Record, The Bank Of Canada Will Announce Interest Rate Decisions.

Among Them, The Bank Of England Notes On Support Rate Increase Number Of Votes Than Change Will Continue To Be The Focus Of The Market. October Meeting Decided To Maintain The Existing Record Low Interest Rates Unchanged, Meeting Minutes Is Expected To Continue To Show That Two Of The Bank Of England’S Monetary Policy Committee Members To Vote Against The Increases In Interest Rates. But If Support The Increase In The Number Of Officials Appear To Raise Interest Rates, Is Expected To Be A Support To The Pound.

Canada, Though, The Foreign Media Still Expects The Bank Of Canada Before The Third Quarter Of 2015 To Maintain 1% Of The Key Benchmark Interest Rates Unchanged, No Economists Expect The Bank Of Canada On October 22Nd Meeting On Interest Rates.

After Oil Prices And The Canadian Dollar Plunged Last Week, However, The Central Bank Policy Makers For Monetary Policy And Economic Situation And How To Interpret, Will Continue To Affect The Heart. If Release More Dovish Signals, Is Expected To Close Under Pressure.


From A Technical Point Of View, The Dollar Index In The 84.75 Line Supported Rebound, Situation Has Improved. But Death Fork 5 Daily Average Line 10, 20 Daily Average Lines, 10 – Day Moving Average Is Dead Fork 20 Daily Average Lines, Watching Moves On Types Of Bearish, Afternoon Rebound Space Should Not Be Overly Optimistic. Analysis From The Time Period, The Dollar Index Dropped This Sort Is Likely To Continue Until The End Of This Month, Began To Restore Rising Trend In November May Be Larger. Today The Dollar Index Rising Short-Term Resistance At 85.35-85.40, Short-Term Important Resistance At 85.50-85.55. The Dollar Index Callback Support At 85.00-85.05 Today, Important Support At 84.80-84.85.

Dollar Index: In 85.50-85.00 Range To Buy, Effectively Break A 30 Point Stop-Loss, Target The Upper Limit Of The Interval.

The Euro/Dollar: Can At 1.2800-1.2700 Range To Sell, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Target In The Lower Limit Of Interval.

GBP/Usd: Can Be Sold In 1.6145-1.6035 Range, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Lower Limit Of Target In Range.

The Dollar/Swiss Franc: Can Be In 0.9500-0.9420 Range To Buy, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, Target The Upper Limit Of The Interval.


Dollar/Yen: In 107.40-106.40 Range To Buy, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Target In The Interval Of The Upper Limit.

Aud/Usd: Can Be Sold In 0.8800-0.8720 Range, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Target In The Lower Limit Of Interval.

Usd/Cad: Can The Purchase Of A 1.1330-1.1250 Range And Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Target In The Interval Of The Upper Limit.

Dollar Harvest Red In September Guard Against Risk Is Approaching

The Dollar Index On Tuesday (Sept. 30) Hovered Near Four-Year High In The Tray, Is Expected To Get More Than A Year The Biggest Monthly Increase.

The Dollar Index Was Last At 85.56, Near Overnight Highs Of 85.79, The Highest Since July 2010. If Beauty Refers To Hold 3.5% Of The Monthly Rise, Will The Biggest Monthly Rise Since February 2013.

Over The Past Three Months, The United States Has Surged More Than 7%, In Part Because The Federal Reserve (FED) To Raise Interest Rates Will Be Much Earlier Than Most Other Major Central Banks.

Acceleration Data Showed On Monday, August Consumer Spending Growth, Support The U.S. Economy Good Prospects. Barclays (Barclays Bank) Analysts Wrote In A Report: Looking To The Future, We Expect The Data This Week Will Show That Economic Fundamentals Continue To Differentiation, Support The Dollar.

Treasury Yields Rose, Two-Year Yields Close To 0.6%, For The First Time Since May 2011. This, In Turn, Boost The Dollar Against The Low-Yielding Currencies More Attractive.

Dollar/Yen Overnight A Six-Year High Of 109.75, The Latest 109.41. The Euro/Dollar Approaching November Low Of 1.2661 In 2012, After Recovering Slightly To 1.2690.

This Month Will Be One Of The Worst-Performing Major Currencies New Yuan, The Drop Nearly 7%. Monday’S Data Confirmed That The Fed New Zealand (RBNZ) Before Intervention, Down $Indeed. New Latest 0.7775 Yuan/Dollar, On Monday Fell To A Low Of 0.7708 In 14 Months.

The Australian Similar Badly, Have Fallen More Than 6% This Month, A Counter Before The Firm Moves Within The Range Of 0.92 To 0.95. As The End Of The Summer Trading Lost Their Appeal And Carry Trades Quiet Period Is Over, The Australian Dollar Fell Out Gradually, The Market Volatility.

China’S Economic Growth Situation Is Not Good, Iron Ore Prices Fall Further, Become The Reason For Selling The Australian Dollar. As Australia’S Biggest Iron Ore Export Revenues.

Because Of Key Technical Support Level, Multi-Channel Selling An Exodus, Aud/Usd Fell All The Way To The Year Low Of 0.8660 Reached In January. Aud/Usd Overnight Trading As Low As 0.8684, The Latest Near 0.8750.

Guard Against The Dollar Rally With A Test

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), According To Data Released Last Friday By The Week Of September 23, Speculators Increased To More Than $Bet On. Dollars Net Long Positions From The Previous Rose From $31.42 Billion To $31.42 Billion.

Analysts Warned Points Out, The Dollar Index For Up To Three Months Of The Gains In May Run Out Of Steam.

Credit Agricole, Said Credit Agricole Foreign Director Adam Says Myers: $Must Be In The Region Of The Rising Into Overbought, If Friday’S Non-Farm Payrolls Data Is Weak, So Next Week There Will Be A Deep Callback.

Analysts Expect The September Non-Farm Payrolls Report Showed A Gain Of 219000 Jobs, From August 142000 Rebounded Sharply.

The Dollar Rise Since July, Essential Reason Is That The United States And The European And Japanese Economic Outlook. The Fed Tightening Years Of Loose Monetary Policy; And The Bank Of Japan (BOJ) And The European Central Bank (ECB) Faced To More Easing Pressure To Boost Economic Growth.

Empty The Euro Will Keep A Close Eye On Late Tuesday Released The Eurozone Inflation, Inflation Higher Than Expected In September But Germany, Inflation Is Expected To Help The Eurozone Stability. The Eurozone Inflation Is Seen In September From 0.4% To 0.3%, Highlights The Pressure On The European Central Bank On Thursday Meeting.

How Far Is The Federal Reserve From Raising Interest Rates To The End?

QE Again 10 Billion, Bond Buying Rate Dropped To 15 Billion Per Month (5 Billion MBS + 5 Billion Bonds); Maintain Rate Unchanged 0-0.25%.

1, Is Expected To Complete Withdrawal From QE At The End Of October. Years And Two FOMC Meeting (October 28 And 29, And December 16-17), Employment And Inflation Outlook Unexpected Change Is Unlikely, The Fed Will Be In Accordance With The Plan At The End Of October To Buy Bonds, This Market Has Pricein Than Expected Is Unlikely.

2, The Key Differences In Interest Rates, For Now, The Fed Has Neither Power Nor The Pressure To Raise Interest Rates In Advance, Increases The Window Is Still The Middle Of Next Year.

Despite The Recent Increases In Interest Rates Expected To Heat Up, But We Think It’S Too Early Now Worry That Raising Interest Rates. From The Subjective Analysis, The Fed Members Are Still Given Priority To With Doves (Including Yellen), From The Objective Analysis, The Fed Was Not Obvious Motivation And Pressure To Raise Interest Rates In Advance.

On The One Hand, The Jobs Were Not So Good, The Fed Did Not Have Enough Power To Raise Interest Rates (Non-Agricultural Consecutive Decline In Two Months, Employment Participation Rate Is Still At A Record Low, This Meeting The Federal Reserve Will Lower Limit GDP Growth In 2014 And 2015 Respectively 0.1 And 0.4% Percentage Points, Display).

On The Other Hand, Short-Term Inflation Risk Is Limited, The Fed Also Does Not Have Enough Pressure To Raise Interest Rates. (Core PCE For Three Consecutive Months Remained At 1.5%, Core CPI 1.9% For Three Consecutive Months, The Federal Reserve In June Meeting And The Meeting Straight Cut Inflation Expectations, In 2014 And 2015 Shows That They Are Not Worried About Medium-Term Inflation Pressure). Rates In Advance Is Unlikely, Window Or In The Middle Of Next Year.

3, The Federal Funds Rate Is Not The Only Tool For Normalization Of The Federal Reserve’S Monetary Policy.

In The Case Of Excess Reserves Sufficient, The Fed Can IOER Control (Excess Interest Rate), As The People’S Bank Of China (Microblogging) Before The Rate Cut Still Has A Lot Of Directional Control, The Federal Reserve May Also Pass IOER.

— – — – — – — – — – — – — – — – — – — – — – — –

The FOMC Statement Attached 1:9 Month Chinese Full Text:

Since July Meeting, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) To Get Information, According To U.S. Economic Activity, Moderate Expansion, To Further Improve The Labor Market, But The Unemployment Rate, Nothing Changes, A Series Of Indicators Suggest That The Labor Market Of Labor Resource Utilization Is Still Significant Deficiencies.

Household Spending Growth At Moderate Speed, Fixed Investment On The Rise, But The Real Estate Sector Recovery Remains Slow. Fiscal Policy Has Inhibitory Effect To The Economic Growth, But This Effect In Retreat. Inflation Remains Below The Fed’S Long-Term Target, Inflation Expectations Remain Stable For A Long Time.

Consistent With The Fed’S Mandate, The Committee Committee To Seek Maximum Employment And Price Stability. Commission Is Expected, Under The Moderately Loose Monetary Policy, Economic Activity Will Be Expansion At Moderate Speed, Labor Market And Inflation Will Develop In The Direction Of The Fed’S Target.

The Committee Believes That The Risk Of Future Economic And Employment Market Close To Balance, The Possibility Of Continued Inflation At 2% Below Since Earlier This Year In The Smaller.

The Committee Believes That The Current Economic Environment Have Enough Strength To Support The Labor Market Continues To Improve. Since The Fed Launched Asset Purchase Program, Working Towards Maximizing Employment In The United States, The Labour Market Prospects Are Improving, So The Committee Decided To Moderately Reduce Further Asset Purchases.

Since October, The Committee Will Buy $5 Billion Of MBS A Month ($10 Billion) And A $10 Billion U.S. National Debt ($15 Billion) For A Long Time.

The Committee Will Continue To Abide By The Maturity Of Bonds Held By Investment Buying Rolling Principle.

The Committee Believes That Holds A Large Number Of Long-Term Debt, And A Scale Is Still Rising, Could Weigh On Long-Term Interest Rates Downward, Support The Mortgage Market, Thus Make The Financial Markets Get Loose Monetary Conditions

. This Will Promote A Stronger Economic Recovery, And Can Guarantee With The Passage Of Time, The Inflation Rate Consistent With The Federal Reserve’S Target Level Best Possible.

In The Coming Months, The Federal Reserve Will Continue To Focus On Economic And Financial Development. The Federal Reserve Will Continue To Buy Treasury Bonds And Mortgage Securities, Will Be Duly Use Other Necessary Monetary Policy Tools, Until Prices Stable Background In The Labour Market Prospects Have Substantial Improvement.

If The Future Economic Data Show That The Labor Market And Improve The Fed’S Expected, And Inflation Working Towards Long-Term Goals Level, The Committee Will End In The Next Meeting Of Asset Purchases.

Asset Purchases, However, Are Not Set In Advance, The Committee’S Asset Purchase Decision And The Labor Market And Inflation Outlook Is Associated, At The Same Time, Commission Will Also Weigh The Costs And Benefits Of Asset Purchases.

Committee Reiterated Support For Maximum Employment And Price Stability, Highly Accommodative Monetary Policy Is Still Appropriate. To Maintain The Federal Funds Rate At 0 ~ 0.25% Has How Long, The Committee Will Assess The Actual And Expected, See If Working Towards The Fed To Maximize Employment And 2% Inflation Target.

Commission In The Process Of Evaluation, Will Consider A Wide Range Of Information, Including The Labor Market Situation, Inflation Pressure Indicators, Inflation Expectations And Financial Environment For The Development Of Relevant Information.

Based On The Evaluation Of These Factors, The Committee Still Believe That At The End Of The Asset Purchase Plan, Keep The Benchmark Interest Rate In The Current Target Range Quite A Long Time Is Appropriate, Especially If Inflation Expectations For Less Than 2%, And Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Firmly Fixed.

When The Committee Decided To Quit Easing, Will Adopt A Balanced Way, With The Maximum Employment And Inflation Of 2% Long-Term Goals. At Present, The Commission Is Expected, Even If The Employment And Inflation Close To Target Level, The Economy Could Keep The Fed Cut The Federal Funds Rate Remains Low For A Period Of Time, Below Committee Considered The Normal Level For A Long Time.

Vote For The FOMC Monetary Policy Action Were: Chairman Yellen (Janet L. Yellen, Chairman); Vice President William Dudley (William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman); Lael Brainard. Stanley Fischer. Narayana Kocherlakota; Mester; Loretta J. Jerome H. Powell. Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting Is Richard W. Fisher And Charles I. Plosser. Fisher Believes That The Actual Economy Continues To Improve, To Improve Labor Utilization Prospects And Prospects To Improve The General Price Level, The Financial Markets To Overheat Signal, May Indicate That The Fed Should Withdraw Early Super Loose Monetary Policy, Point Before The Time Shown In The Preview Guide.

Plosser Against Forward Guidance, Which Said Asset Purchases After Quite A Long Time, The Federal Funds Rate Will Remain At The Current Scope, Plosser Believes That This Expression Depends On The Process, Can’T Reflect Economic Goals At The King’S Committee Made Great Progress In The Process.

Attached 2: The Fed’S Previous FOMC Predicted Value Of Economic Data

Expected GDP Growth Of 2.0% In 2014 To 2.0% In June (Expected 2.1% – 2.3%).

Expected GDP Growth Of 2.6% In 2015 To 2.6% In June (Expected 3.0% – 3.2%).

Expected GDP Growth Of 2.6% In 2016 To 2.6% In June (Expected 2.5% – 3.0%).

Expected GDP Growth Of 2.0% To 2.0% For A Long Time (June Forecast Is 2.1% – 2.3%).

Expected By The End Of 2014 The Unemployment Rate From 5.4% To 5.6% In June (Expected 6.0% – 6.1%).

Expected By The End Of 2015 The Unemployment Rate From 5.4% To 5.6% In June (Expected 5.4% – 5.7%).

Expected By The End Of 2016 The Unemployment Rate From 5.1% To 5.4% In June (Expected 5.1% – 5.5%).

Expected Long-Term Unemployment Rate Is 5.2% – 5.5% (In June Forecast Is 5.2% – 5.5%).

Expected PCE Inflation At 1.5% To 1.5% In 2014 (June Forecast Is 1.5% – 1.7%).

Expected PCE Inflation At 1.6% To 1.6% In 2015 (June Forecast Is 1.5% – 2.0%).

Expected PCE Inflation At 1.7% To 1.7% In 2016 (June Forecast Is 1.6% – 2.0%).

Long-Term PCE Inflation Expectations At 2.0% (Expected At 2.0% In June).

Spot Gold Cast The Net On October 13 Huang Jinwu Disk Operation Suggestions

13-0 Month, Boosted Gold Trading, The Gold Plate Near The Previous High Of 1235 Blocked Temporarily, Focus On Resistance Here, Once Breakthroughs, Will Show The Pattern Of Strong Gains, Above The Price Of Gold Will Continue To Attack Resistance Is Near 1264 Even 1246.

The Kansas City Fed President George (Esther George) Said Friday That The U.S. Economy Is In Good Performance, So The Fed Needs To Accelerate The Policy Tightening Action As Soon As Possible, To Ensure That After The U.S. Economy And Financial Markets Remained Stable Operation Condition, Avoid Bubble Growth.

The Three Major Stock Indexes Fell, It Won The Bid For The S&Amp;P 500 Index Extending Losses On Thursday, The Lowest Reached 1906.07 And Intensifying Weakness. A Drop In U.S. Stocks Bring Safe-Haven Demand For The Gold Market Has Become One Of The Big Market Positive Factors. But Also A Lot Of Pressure On Gold Prices In The Near Future Of The Dollar Index On Thursday And Friday Are Recovered.

Spot Gold May Need To Back To Below $1200 An Ounce Level To Make Gold Buyers Really Excited. And He Think That There Is A Big Factor Is The Gold Supply Is Adequate, Making India’S Market Price Premium Is Not High.

Geopolitical Issues, Saturday, Oct. 12) Ukraine, Kuznets Regional Governor Base Hector TengKe (Kihtenko) Announced That The Government Has Signed With The Private Armed New Ceasefire.

Spot Jinri Online Bottoming Rebound Of The Patterns In A Whole, Temporary Out Of Last In Awkward Situation, Spot Gold Cloth Forest Openings, Four Hours RSI Overlapping Upward Tendency. Gold MACD Fork Measures Up. Focus On The 1236-1237-1240 A Line Above The Resistance Situation Today, Today Is Above The Spot Gold Price Resistance Is Strong, Above 1240 Interval Resistance Is Not Broken, Afternoon And Test Risk. Above 1240.

Today Gold Operation Suggestion:

Today Gold Back On More Decisive, 1223-1224 Loss In 1218-1219, The Target Of 1230-1230.

Today Gold See Empty, Near 1236-1238 Damage, 1241 Goals In 1233-1230.

“” Golden Week” Evaluation “Is Good To Follow Gold Prices Rebound Strength

This Week The Gold Market Overview

International Spot Gold Prices Fell Last Week After 1200 Mark, This Week The Bulls Finally, Gold Prices Bottomed Out. On Monday (6 October) Under The Influence Of The Fed’S New Employment Indicators LMCI, Gold Prices Since The Year Low Of $1182.97 An Ounce On The Road To Recovery, Date Line For Four Consecutive Yang Line, The Highest On The Agent To $1233.19 An Ounce, On Friday (October 10) Because The Fundamentals Are Delicate, Repair Throughout The Day As Indicators, A Trend Of Sideways And Eventually Gold Prices Surged 2.68% This Week, Weekly At The Sun Thread.

Gold Fundamentals Of Good News This Week To Follow To Make Gold In The Two Hundred Mark For The Support, And Rebound. In Addition To The Week Us Jobs Data Significantly Worse Than Expected, The Fed’S Dovish Minutes Gold’S Rise Is The Main Source. Geopolitical Situation, The United States And Its Allies In Air Strikes On ISIS Did Not Achieve The Desired Effect, Lowering The ISIS Ravaged Earth The Syrian Border, Boosting Risk Aversion And Good Prices. In Addition, After The National Day Holiday Festival Gold Need To Return To China And India To Rise Gold Buying, Also Further Support Gold Prices Higher.

The Current Fundamental Pattern

The Federal Reserve On September 16 And 17, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, Said The Global Economic Slowdown Is One Of The Risks Of The Economic Outlook. Officials Said That The United States May Suffer From Imported Inflation Deflation (Eurozone Deflation, Commodity Prices), And The Dollar Caused By The Double Negative. Therefore, The Long-Term Inflation Outlook In The United States May Be Below The Fed’S Previous Estimate Of 2%.

Meeting Minutes, According To Some Officials Also Worry That The Euro Zone Last Less Than Expected Economic Growth And Inflation Is Likely To Further Appreciation Of The Dollar, Which Exports To The United States Have A Negative Impact. Another Official Said, Adding That China And Japan’S Economic Growth Is Slowing, The Middle East Situation Unpredictable, Ukraine Crisis Are Likely To Bring A Similar Risk. It Seems That Brought On By A Stronger Dollar Ultra-Low Inflation Make Officials On The Rapid Increases In Interest Rates More Restraint.

Since September 22, Dominated By The United States Gathered In Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia And The United Arab Emirates And Other Five Air Arab Islamic Countries (ISIS) Action Did Not Have The Desired Effect. ISIS In Syria Continues To Advance, Near Turkey’S Border With Syria’S Strategic Barney Almost Lost. ISIS Has Occupied The Barney Dozens Of Villages, And Are Close To Get Control Of Bani, There Are More Than 160000 Local Residents Fled To Turkey.

Although The Two American Officials Ambassador John Allen And Brett McGonagall Grams Will On Friday (October 10) Talks With Officials In Turkey, To Fight Extremists For Assistance. At The Same Time, The U.S.-Led Strikes Continue In Families, Barney. But ISIS Combatants Has Control Over A Third Territory, The City Without Outside Intervention, Families And Barney Is Expected To Soon Fell Into The Hands Of ISIS. Negotiations And Turkish Side Against Extremists Is Still In Progress.

After 11 Golden Weeks, China And India, The World’S Two Biggest Gold Consumer) To Return To The Market, Consumers Will End Holiday Traders Are Closely Watching Physical Demand In The Coming Days. In September, According To Bullion Vault Provides Data Gold Investment Index (Gold Investor Index) Has Risen From 51.7 In August To 53.4, Mean Net Buyers Of Gold Quantity Is Increasing. In Addition, In September 2014 Turkish Gold Imports Jumped In August, Year-On-Year Growth Of More Than 500%.

The World Gold Council (WGC) In India In The Near Future, A Senior Official Said That In The Second Half Of 2014 The Indian Gold Demand Will Be Strong Growth, Will Eventually Pull Gold Demand Picks Up All The Year Round. From Considering All The Year Round, Especially After The Third Quarter After The Strong Performance Of Gold Fundamentals Have Very Solid And Strong. Now Holiday Season Has Started, Wedding Anniversary Is About To Begin, Also Is Expected To Lead 850-950 Tons Of Physical Gold Demand. And The People Of India In The Wedding Season Can Occupy 50% Of The Total Gold Consumption.

The Current Pattern Of Technical Analysis

Overnight On The Daily Chart, Gold Prices Rose $3, Forming A Meteor Line, But The Closing Price Is Higher Than 21 – Day Moving Average, Technology On The Surface Offset Influence Each Other. 8, 13, 21, Average Approaching, 34, 55 Averages To Continue To Pressure Prices. MACD Indicators, The Kinetic Energy Of The Red Column Is Still Expanding, Double Continue To Stay Away From. KD Index Into Overbought Area, There Are Potential Death Fork Trend. RSI Recorded 58.23, Turn Head Down.

The Current Gold Prices Rebound, Short-Term Trend Will Depend On Hold On 21 – Day Moving Average, Long-Term Trend Reversal Requires Breaking Down Low In June 1240. Preliminary Support Gold Prices Downward 1215 Mark, Further Support At 1205 Levels, A Key Support At 1185. Initial Resistance At 1220 And Upward, Further Resistance At 1230 Levels, A Key Resistance At 1240 Dollars An Ounce.

Institutions Gold Reviews

Societe Generale Bank, Societe Generale) Commodities Research Director Mark Keenan Believes That In The Short Term Will Depend On The Dollar And Gold’S Movements Diwali In India. But Strong Physical Demand In Asia Is Still Not Enough To Make The Gold Market To Life, But People Also May Not Be Willing To Sell Gold, Gold Prices Will Be Stable.

Royal Bank Of Canada (Precious Metals Strategist At RBC Capital Markets Global Futures) George Gero Thinks, Geopolitics And Low Interest Rates Around The World Still Provide Support For Gold. And On The Other Hand, In The National Day Golden Week, The Chinese Market Of Physical Gold Buying Is Finally Back. Gold At $1225 An Ounce Level May Trigger Some Buying Order.

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch, Bank Of America Merrill Lynch) In The Report Pointed Out That The Current Of All The Precious Metals, Gold Has The Most Challenging Fundamentals, Such As The Stabilised High Interest Rates To Rise, U.S. Stocks And The Dollar Continued To Be Strong Will Gold Under Pressure. In Addition To Physical Gold Demand In China This Year Also Fell Year-On-Year. Though Gold, Dragged Down By The Bearish Fundamentals But Still Can Find Some Support From The Aspects Of Supply And Demand, This Will Help In The Short Term Prices Hovering Around $1200.

Beginning Next Year, Global Gold Production Or Drop

Gold Investment Network – October 11, Thomson Reuters Gold Mining Service Company (GFMS) Newly Released “2014 Gold Yearbook Supplement Edition 1, Revealed For The First Half Of This Year Global Gold Demand Levels Of Speculation And Prediction In The Second Half Of The Year.

In The First Half Of This Year The World’S Gold Supply An Estimated 2105 Tons, Up 3.6% Year-On-Year. Among Them, The Mineral Supply 70% Of The Total, Up 3.6% Year-On-Year. Recovery Of Gold Is Due To The Price Cut Down 9.1% Year On Year.


According To Thomson Reuters Data GFMS, The First Half Of The Global Gold At No Upfront Investment And Management Spending Cash Costs, Such As Average, Down 6% Year-On-Year, To $736 An Ounce, Reflects The Industry Cuts Action Produced Results.

Included In The Total Cost Of The Initial Investment And Management Spending, Global Average $1350 An Ounce. Industry Management Mainly Through Different Methods To Reduce Costs, Including: In The Case Of Can Increase Production, Especially Focusing On The Excavation Of The High Grade Is First Part, Cause A Decrease In The Cost Per Ounce.

Some Of The High Cost Of Mining, Including Tanzania Jin Pu Ryder (Golden Pride) And Tula Tile Card (Tulawaka), Australia, (Laverton) And Luna (Wiluna) And So On, Has Been Discontinued. Adding Capacity Benefits, Including Reducing Staff Number, Change The Mining Method And Reduce The Time And Frequency Of Maintenance, Etc.

In Global Gold Deposit, Located In South Africa And Australia’S Gold To Gain Greater Success In Spending Cuts. In The First Half Of This Year, The Substantial Depreciation Of The South African Rand South African Currency Against The Dollar, To Make The Total Cost In Dollars Fell 13% Year-On-Year.

The Australian Gold Average Total Cost In Dollars Fell 18% Year-On-Year, Mainly Is The Cartier Mountain (Cadia Hill) Ore Output To Rise, And Mr. Telfer (Telfer) Ore For The Ramp Up Of The Associated Copper Gold Average Production Costs Down.

On The Contrary, The Average Cost Of Production Of Gold Deposit Is A Significant Rise. Mainly Because Cortez (Cortez), Kerry’S Creek And Victor (Cripple Creek &Amp; Amp; Victor) And Other Large Ore Production Fell And Lead To Rise In The Cost Of Production Per Ounce Of Gold, And The Cost Of The Rising Trend Will Continue In The Second Half.

Mexico Against The New Tax In Mining At The Local Gold Production Costs. Although Is Located In South America’S Largest Gold Mine Old Pueblo (Pueblo Viejo) Operating Costs Down, But Still Can’T Change The Entire Region Of South America The Fact That Gold Mining Costs On The Rise.

From The Point Of The Output Of The First Half Of This Year, Africa’S Gold Output Edged Up 2%, To 293 Tons. Among Them, The Congo Has The Obvious Increase Of Amount Of Gold Production, Mainly Thanks To The Ramp Up Of The Kay Barry (Kibali). Gold Production In West African Countries Generally Rise Slightly, But Individual Gold Mine Has Started To Decline.

On The Other Hand, Although The Spread Of The Ebola Virus In West Africa Temporarily No Serious Impact On The Local Gold Mining And Production, But Don’T Rule Out The Possibility That If The Virus Spread Further Will Affect Production.

Canada In The First Half Of The Amount Of Gold Production Rose 24%, To 75 Tons, Mainly Is The Mill In The Dry Mountain (Mount Milligan), High Dykes (Goldex), Di Tours Lake (Detour Lake), The Medoc Bunker (Meadowbank), Canada, Marla “(Canadian Malartic) And The Pull Rod (LaRonde) And So On The Ramp Up Of The Gold Mine.

The Production Fell 9% Year-On-Year, To 100 Tons. In Which, Mining The Gold Grade Of Cortez Is More Fell 61%, Therefore, The Mine Production Fell 10 Tons. Similarly, Newmont (Newmont) In Nevada Yield Because Of Lower Grades And A 3% Decline, To 23 Tons.

On The Other Hand, The Output Of Mexico Inched Up 2%, From Last Year’S Gold Canada Pena, In The Management Of (Penasquito) Ore Mining Policy Changed By Gold Prices Plunge, Only Focus On The Exploitation Of High Grade Reserves To Boost Production.

South America’S Output Fell 3%, To 258 Tons. Peru’S Output In The Biggest Drop Since 2007 (Fell 16 Tons), Chile Production Fell 15%, Mainly Are Affected By Mining Grade Down. The Dominican Republic, Brazil And Argentina Yield Increase.

Australia Production Rose 6% To 135 Tons, Benefit From The New Project Including Turow Pickups That (Tropicana), Andy Well (Andy Well) And Drag The Bright Ray (Tomingley) Mine Into Production.

The European Production Rose 12%, To 131 Tons. The Main Momentum From Russia And Sweden.

Although The Cost Per Ounce Appeared A Downward Trend, But As A Result Of The Gold Price Fell Faster Than The Speed Of Cost Reduction, So The Industry Gross Margins Are Shrinking. Mining Company, The Pace Of Spending Cuts To Accelerate, More Gold Or Will Shut Down. Starting Next Year, Global Gold Supply Or Shrunk.

The Fed’S Internal Debate Forward-Looking Guide Modified Into Focus

Several Fed Officials Have Said The Fed Forward Guidance About The Content Of The Interest Rate, You Need To Change Around This Problem, Recently Had A Fierce Debate Inside The Fed.

In The Past Few Days, The Fed Up And Down The Collective Voice, From The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Has The Right To Vote Of Members, Doves Or Hawks, The Fed Chairman, To The Place To Officials In Washington, Have Called For Change Perspective To Guide The Phrase.

These People Speech Reminded The Market, In This Month’S FOMC Meeting, To Raise Interest Rates The Phrase May Have Some Changes, Although The Consensus Degree Is Not High, The Real Transformation May Have To Wait Until October Meeting.


Said To Modify The Wording, One Of The Most Critical One Is That The Fed Has Been Said In The Preview Guide, Will End In October After QE To Keep Interest Rates Low For Quite Some Time. But As U.S. Economic Data Continued Stable Performance, The Fed’S Internal People Keep Voice Suggested That Might Need To Raise Interest Rates Early Next Year.

Fed Governor Jerome Powell Said On Thursday, The FOMC Statement In Some Important Parts Of The Wording Of The Need To Change. Cleveland Fed Chairman Loretta Mester On The Same Day, Also Said The Fed Needs To Adjust The Interest Rate Of The Forward-Looking Guidance, So As To Better Reflect The Fed’S Progress In Achieving Economic Goals.

Powell And Mester Communication Is The Fed’S Policy Committee, Two Of The Four Members, They Fear Of Predictive Guidance Is Also Reflected In The FOMC Internal Hawk Pigeon Two Parties Debate.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren Said On Friday, With Unemployment Rates Gradually Close To The Goal Of Full Employment, The Fed Should Stop Issuing Monetary Policy Guidance Of The Timing. Rosengren Is A Strong Supporter Of The Federal Reserve’S Monetary Stimulus Policy. And His Opponent, The Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, Famous Hawks, On Saturday, Our First Priority Is To Change The Wording In The Preview Guide Now, Want To Let The Market Know We Will Raise Interest Rates Faster Than Expected.

Market Is Inclined To The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Is Scheduled For The Second Quarter Of 2015, But The Fed’S Own Point Of View Or Raise Interest Rates Should Be Completely Determined With Reference To The Economic Development, And There Is No Specific Date.

Yellen, Chairman Of The Federal Reserve In June This Year, Warning Of Strong Data May Lead To Interest Rates Ahead Of Time, And In August Meeting To Give A More Neutral Evaluation To The Job Market. It Shows That The Federal Reserve This Year Foreign Statement Change Trend.

FOMC Officials Will Be Meeting In September Updated Economic Forecasts, Despite Friday’S Non-Farm Payrolls Numbers Make A Lot Of, But Officials Or May Generally Take Their Expectations, And Could Also Put Forward At The Meeting Some Specific Exit Strategy. The Content Will Be Reflected In The Post-Meeting Statement Yellen, Worth Investors To Focus On.

When Yellen Speech To Keep Interest Rates Low For A Long Time The Wording Are Unlikely To Be Directly Removed One Of The Most Don’T Want To See Things Because The Federal Reserve, Is The Market Interest Rates Expected Too Early. But Yellen May For This Sentence Plus A Qualification, Such As Low Interest Rates Will Remain For Quite Some Time, Unless The Labour Market Development Faster Than Expected.

Another Situation Is That The Fed May Release The Fuzzy Words But Let The Market Do Not Need To Worry, For Example, Rosengren Said On Friday The Fed Reduced Stimulative Monetary Policy Have To Be Patient.

How Changes In The Wording Of The Federal Reserve Will Eventually Remains An Elusive Problem, But One Thing Is For Sure, Namely Since Last December Cuts QE, The Fed Will Maintain The Peaceful Atmosphere Of Rectified Dissipating, As Interest Rates Rise, The Eagle Pigeon Both Sides Of The Debate Will Be Increasingly Fierce.

Quantitative Easing Urban Management Problem


Since This Year, The County In Promoting Urban Management Mechanism To Actively Explore Scientific And Humanistic Aspects, Quantitative As The Core, Strengthen Supervision; To Provide For Easy Adjustment.

The County Will First City Grading Management Responsibility. In The Central City, The Streets Of Different Location, Section Is Divided Into Primary, Secondary, Generally Three Types Of Management Level Of Responsibility. For Different Levels Of Streets, Road, Respectively To Carry Out The Ban, Control, Standardize The Management Requirements Of The Three, The Stream Of People, Logistics, The Concentration Of The Streets, Road To Rein; Less Of Suburban Areas, Residents, Schools, Units Where Appropriate To Relax, Not Only Ensure Management In Place, And Put An End To A Tube Of Die. The Second Is To Quantify The Management Responsibility, Management Standard, Refinement, Convenient Operation And Execution. County Have Made Order Of Street, Street Facade Management Order, Health, Cleaning And Mobile Emergency Management Five Standards, Law Enforcement Officers To Take Step Car Tour, Tour, A Person Create Positions The Management Mode Of Three Kinds Of Exercises Supervision And Control Over Different Regions, Different Section Of The City Management Without Blind Spots, And No Blind Spots. Three Is Supervision Evaluation Norm. Shall Practise A System Of Weekly, Monthly Review And JiKao, Not Regularly, No Gap For Urban Districts And Sanitation Management Status Tracking Efficiencies, Establish Parameter, Included In The Annual Appraisal, Cash Rewards And Punishments.

Quantitative Easing, Pushing The City Management, To Resolve The Problem, Improve The Urban Grade. Approved In A Quantitative Way, Carry Out A Work, Can Make Clear, Targeted, Easy To Operate. But For Urban Management, Condition Differ In Thousands Ways, The Problem How To Deal, How To Achieve The Target, Suit The Remedy To The Case Is To Make Great Efforts One Time.

Face The City Management Problem, Find A Solution. Only Measures Right, Problems Can Be Resolved, The City Will Get Harmonious Development.

The Situation In Russia And Ukraine Sharp Escalation Financial Markets Move

Ukraine’S Prime Minister, And The Mining Duke (Arseny Yatseniuk) On Thursday (August 28) Called For The United States, The European Union And The Group Of Seven (G7) To Freeze The Assets Of The Russians, Until Russia Withdraw Troops From The Territory Of Ukraine. At A Government Meeting, The Mining Newkirk, Request The United States, The European Union And G7 Frozen Russian Assets And Funds, Until The Country’S Armed Forces, Equipment And Branches Out Of Ukraine. Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws Said The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine’S Behavior Has Occurred, It Calls For Ukraine’S National Security And Defense Committee Held A Meeting To Discuss The Next Steps Immediately. Because Of The Russian Invasion (Ukraine) And Cancel The Visit To Turkey. Ukraine’S Interior Minister, Arsen Avakov Adviser Anton Herashchenko Said The Pro-Russian Separatism Expanded In Donetsk And Lugansk Counterattack, And Capture Some Town, Opened The New Breakthrough And Supply Channels. Today Afternoon, The Pro-Russian Zahar Ukraine Splitting Militia Leader Has Told Russian State Television, A Russian Soldiers In Active Service During Volunteering, Ask For Leave In About Three To Four Thousand Militiamen And Russian Soldiers In Active Service Support Separatist Forces. After The Russian Government Has Repeatedly Denied To Ukraine Separatist Forces Secret Military Assistance And Support. Given Tensions To Ukraine, A Sudden Warming, Changes In Financial Markets, Stock Markets, Currency, Etc Have To React. The Russian Stock Market Collapsed And The Rouble Today, Russian Debt Insurance Costs Rose To A Two-Month High. In Eastern Ukraine War Upgrade, West Is Calling For Russia To Take New Measures To Crack Down On. This Sentiment Is Not Positive, To Russia Or Region Uralsib Capital, Analysts Said. Ukraine’S Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Today Up To Three Months. Markit Data Show That Ukraine’S Five-Year CDS At 1016 Basis Points, Relatively Closed Up 34 Basis Points On Wednesday. And Which Expires In 2017 And 2020 $Sovereign Bonds Fell More Than 1%. Five-Year CDS Markit, Said Russia Jumped 13 Basis Points To 240 Basis Points. Russia In 2020 And 2030 Dollar Bonds Decline Between $0.006 And $0.009.

The Influence Of A Strong Dollar On The Global Economy

The Euro Against The Dollar Decline Because Of The Continent Economy Into A Recession. Sterling Against The U.S. Dollar Plummeted Because Scottish People Want From Britain; The Yen Against The Dollar To Fall Because Mr Abe Economics (Abenomics) Go To The Wall, The Country’S Economy Is Entering The Third Lost Decade.

There Are Many Reasons Why Most Of The Major Currencies Against The U.S. Dollar Fell. But It Is In The Strengthening Dollar. The Dollar Index Has Rise Continuously 11 Weeks, Longest Streak Record Was Recorded In 17 Years. You Can Argue A Stronger Dollar Why, But It Is A Fact That Is Happening Is Indisputable.

Overseas Analysts Outlines Five Effect: The Stronger Dollar European Implementation Of Quantitative Easing (QE) Expected, China’S Stimulus Measures Faster, More Global Acquisitions, 1-2 Second Revolution And Less Interest In The Alternative Currency, Such As COINS.

Goldman Sachs Economist Gary – Stern (Jari Stehn) In The Report Points Out, Analyzes The Possible Effect Of A Stronger Dollar, Saying It Would Have A Negative Impact On The Stock Market And Economy, And Lower The Purchasing Power Of The Us International Trade Partners, But For Growth, Inflation And The Impact Of The Fed’S Policy Is Limited.

Gary – And The Stern Report Said, According To The Evaluation Of Goldman Sachs, The Next Year, From A Broad, Trade-Weighted Benchmark To Consider, The Dollar Will Rise 3%, The Trend Of Growth, Inflation And The Influence Of The Fed’S Policy Will Not Be Too Big.

Reported That, First Of All, A Stronger Dollar Impact On Growth Would Be Modest. Specifically, We Think That The Recent Appreciation If (Stop), May Let The Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate In 2015 Reduced About 0.15%, Dragged Down By The Growth Of 0.1% In 2016.

If The Dollar Continues To Rise, Impact On Economic Growth In 2015 And 2016 Will Be More Big, There Are 0.25% And 0.3% Respectively Of Repression, The Cumulative Appreciation Effect Will Be In The Coming Years.

Second, The Dollar’S Impact On Inflation Would Be Negligible. For The Fed/American Inflation Is Mainly Depends On The Level Of Economic Malaise, Rather Than The Growth Rate Of Output.

Finally, The Strong Dollar On The Fed’S Influence Is Limited. The Dollar So Far, According To The Laws Of The Inertial Taylor (If End), Will Make The Actual Funds Rate To Reduce The Five Basis Points At The End Of 2015, To Reduce 15 Basis Points At The End Of 2016. Continuing The Dollar, Could Lead To A Slightly Larger Influence.

Royal Bank Of Canada’S Capital, Jonathan – Croup (Jonathan Golub) Pointed Out That Conventional Wisdom Is That A Stronger Currency Could Be A Headwind For Stocks, Because The Product Competitiveness Abroad Will Be Lower. Our Research Shows That It’S Not Like This: 1. The Economy And The Trend Of The Dollar Tends To Linkage, That Is, The Stronger Economy Should Lead To A Stronger Dollar; 2. The Rising Dollar For Higher City Filled With Multiple Is Supportive.

Although A Stronger U.S. Dollar, The Fed May Not Make Much Difference, But The Dollar Trend Trend Of Pulling The Change Of The Global Monetary Economy.

According To The China Economic Daily Reported, Affected By The Dollar Callback, The Yuan Central Parity Rate Against The Dollar Rebound Slightly. Data According To The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, The Inter-Bank Foreign Exchange Market Among The Yuan Against The Dollar Price Of 6.1450, A Rise Of 12 Basis Points In The Last Trading Day.

At The Spot Exchange Rate On The Same Day, The Yuan Against The Dollar Over 4 Consecutive Losses, As Of The Close, The Renminbi Spot Exchange Rate At 6.1401, Compared With 16 Appreciation 61 Basis Points.

Ubs Securities Chief Economist Wang Tao Is Expected, The End Of The Yuan Against The Dollar Will Be A Slight Concussion To Around 6.20 And 6.35 At The End Of 2015, But During May Periodically Appreciation And Two-Way Volatility Increases.

No Matter How To Explain, The Dollar Lower Or Always Can Have A Significant Impact On The Rest Of The World Economy.

The Longer The More Gold

Gold At Home Were Able To Grow More, The More You Believe It?

Please Look At The Two Data: This Year On September 30, 9999 Gold Of The Gold Exchange Price Is 241.1 Yuan Per Gram, And Tracking The Price Of Gold Hua An Gold ETF, Estimated Net Worth (IOPV) Is 2.418 Yuan, That Is 241.8 Yuan Per Gram, 0.7 Yuan Higher Than The Corresponding Value Of Real Gold.

Gold ETF Is A Kind Of Move The Gold To The Stock Exchange For The Product, As Long As There Is Stock Account Would Like Buy And Sell Stocks Trading Gold, Low Threshold, Low Cost, Trading Fast, Fund Share Behind The Corresponding Amount Of Physical Gold, And Dependable And Convenient.

At Current The Nation’S Largest Commodity ETF Hua An Gold ETF, For Example, The Fund’S Assets To Buy Into The Corresponding Gold, Then Put These Physical Gold According To The Corresponding Relationship In A Gram Of Gold Convert Fund Share (Reduced Starting That Day, Each Fund Share Corresponding To 0.01 Gram Of Gold), Then The Share To The Shanghai Stock Exchange Listed, Let People To Buy And Sell.

This Product Only Run For More Than A Year, And Arguably, Fund Companies Charge A Fee, Physical Gold Trading Loss Poundage, Over Time, The Corresponding Physical Gold Of 100 Fund Is Less Than 1 G? However, 100 Safe Gold ETF Has Net Worth More Than The Value Of 1 Gram Of Gold, Grow More Gold.

The Secret Is To Fund The Gold Lease This Item In The Contract, The Funds That Hold A Lot Of Physical Gold Is The Precipitation Temporary Rented Fixed Assets With Gold Enterprise, The Rent Subsidy Fund Holders, Not Only Hedge The Management Fee, Also Earned More Than When Buying Gold.

Sterling Weak Downward Pay Attention To Support 1.60 Mark

October 7 – On Tuesday (Oct. 7) Dish In The City, The Pound Fell From Session Highs Against The Dollar, Now Running At 1.60 Above Threshold, Repeatedly Failed To Test 1.60 Below. In August After The UK Industrial Production In Poor Performance, The Rate Of The Pound Reaction, And The Market For The Pound Rose Against The Dollar On Monday Dominated The Days Of Millions Of Pounds.

Sterling Rose 0.70% Yesterday, The Biggest One-Day Jump Since Three Weeks, Because Of The Dollar Index On Friday (Oct. 3) Boom Has Some Investors Cut Their Positions To The Dollar. But The Dollar Index Days Again Regained, Investors Have Cut Non-Us Currency Positions.

Economic Data, The Rate Of Industrial Production In August Month Flat, Manufacturing Output In August Month At A Rate Of 0.1%, At An Annual Rate Of 3.9%. The UK Manufacturing Output In August Month Rate Is Slow, A Further Sign Of The British Economic Recovery. Beijing Time 22:00 Britain Will Be Released To September 3 Months NIESR – Estimated At An Annual Rate Of GDP.

Sterling Trade-Weighted Index On Monday (6 October) Fell To A Three Week Low, After The Release Of A Series Of Data Is Not As Good As Expected, Kept Investors Worried About The Economy Slowed By The End Of The Year.

Some Market Participants Expect More Weak Data May Make The Bank Over The Longer Term To Keep Interest Rates Low. The UK’S Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Will Hold A Meeting This Week, Is Likely To Continue To Keep Interest Rates Near Record Lows.


Technology On The Average System In Short, MACD Indicators Short Forces Still Occupy The Dominance. Short-Term Support At 1.60, Followed By 1.5951, Pressure On 1.61, Followed By 1.6165.

10 Kilograms Local Tyrants Gold Market Value Five Million Yuan


13-0 Month, Recently, The International Gold Prices All The Way Down, Domestic Gold Prices Also Fell, It Makes Chinese Aunt Technologies-But Bottom Continuously. However, This Has Not Stopped People Pursuit Of Local Tyrants Gold. On October 10, In The Gold And Silver COINS Issued Officially. This Set Of Commemorative COINS In Total 16, One Of The Most Important In The Gold Coin Is 10 Kilograms, Offering Only 18. Want To Buy These Gold And Silver COINS, However, Could Be In November.

In The Heaviest Gold 10 Kg

According To The Issue Of Central Bank Announcement, 2015 China B Did Not (Sheep) In Gold And Silver COINS A Will Is Composed Of 16 Coin, This Is The Same As The Number Of Year Of The Horse Zodiac Gold And Silver COINS Issued. , Including 9 Gold COINS Issued COINS Issued 7. Among Them, The Largest Circulation For 1 Oz Round Silver Colored COINS, A Total Of 220000; Circulation Of The Smallest Is 10 Kg Of Gold, Only 18. In Terms Of The Number, 2015, In The Chinese Zodiac Gold And Silver COINS And 2014 Year Of The Horse Zodiac Gold And Silver COINS.

Look From The Shape Of COINS, A Circular, Rectangular Fan, Plum Flower Form, Four Kinds Of Shapes. Among Them, Gold Has 3.11 Grams (1/10 Ounces), 10.368 G (1/3 Oz), 155.52 G (5 Oz), 1 Kg, 2 Kg, 10 Kg Of 6 Kinds Of Specifications, The Silver With 31.104 G (1 Oz), 155.52 G (5 Oz), 1 Kg Of Three Kinds Of Specifications.

16 The Obverse Bearing The National Emblem, With Auspicious Decoration, And Provides A Name And Title. But The Back Is Slightly Different, Of Which 12 As The Modelling Of Argal Lining First Decorative Decoration Sheep, Sheep Another 4 Pieces Of Traditional Folk Decoration Molding Line With Auspicious Grain (Local Color).

For The Most Closely Watched The 10 Kilograms Of Local Tyrants Gold, Market Valuation Is Controlled In Five Million Yuan, Gold Coin Corporation According To Each Region’S Demand Was Allocated, But Is Unlikely To Shenyang This Year To 10 Kg Of Gold COINS. Gold And Silver COINS Issued After There Is A Certain Hysteresis In The Market Circulation, Estimate Until November Shenyang Strategy May Sales.

Emerging Markets Is Still Supporting The Global Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Recently Released Its Latest World Economic Outlook. A Prominent New Findings Emerged: In Terms Of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), The Seven Biggest Emerging Market Economies Sum Is Greater Than The Gross Domestic Product Is Made Up Of Old Industrialized Countries Of The Group Of Seven (G7).

So-Called New G7 Is But The IMF Fictitious Economic Association, Including The Four Bric Countries, Brazil, China, Russia, India, And Three So-Called MINT (MINT) Economies: Mexico, Indonesia And Turkey. According To The IMF Estimates, If New G7 Economic Strength In PPP Terms, Its GDP Reached $37.8 Trillion. And The True Of The G7, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The United Kingdom And The United States, Under The Same Index Of GDP Is Only $34.5 Trillion.

In Terms Of GDP, A New G7 Beyond The G7 Really Reached $3.3 Trillion, It Seems This Is The Reality Of Living In The IMF, But Others Will Be Seen As A Fable. Whether It Is From The Level Of Economic Development, Political Influence, Social Civilization Degree Or The People’S Living Standard, In The Hard And Soft Power Aspects Namely New G7 Can’T Compare With True The G7. This Is The World’S Universal Common-Sense Judgment.

In China And The United States, For Example, In The Spring, The IMF Has Forecast China’S GDP In The PPP Statistics Will Outstrip The Us This Year. Just Before National Day, The IMF Is A Formal Conclusion, American Economy Is $2014 In 17.4 Trillion, The Scale Of China’S Economy Is $17.6 Trillion. In The Spring, Almost All Of China’S Public Opinion On The IMF’S Conclusion Disagree; Now, The IMF Said Simply Won’T Get The Response Of The Chinese Public Opinion.

The Chinese Have Self-Knowledge. At The Beginning Of The Reform And Opening Up, Chinese On GDP Growth Proud And Excited. / – 1.88% Of Funding Research To New Century’S First Decade, China’S Public Opinion Field To Rethink Double-Digit GDP Growth. High National Wealth Growth, Making China A Global Economic Power After The United States, But In 1.3 Billion As The Denominator, The Average National Wealth Still Belongs To The Low Level Around The World. Now, Officials Have Adjust The Achievements Appraisal Indicator, Not Excessive Emphasis On GDP Growth, Economic Growth Range Is About 7.5% Of Normal.

And National Wealth And The People Rich Belongs To A Completely Different Concept – The High Speed Development Of By-Product: Kill The Imbalance Of Development, Which Is Dominated By The Power Of Money Achievement, Power Rent-Seeking Of Resources, Uneven Distribution Of Polarization Property, High Tax Burden Of The People’S Livelihood Stuck, Huge National Wealth Did Not Reach The Basic Livelihood Of The People. Ordinary Chinese Instead Of High National Wealth Increment Of Triggered Intense Frustration.

The Reality Is That The Traditional In The G7, The United States Has Been Out Of The Crisis Quagmire, Implements The Predictable Economic Recovery. The Fed Has Considered The Normalization Of Monetary Policy, Namely, Quantitative Easing (Soon To Be Completed In The Past, Raising Interest Rates Is Imminent. Independent Of The British Are Also Trying To Monetary Policy In The Euro Area Normalization. Japan’S Economy, Although Uncertainty, Abe Economics Actual Effect Is Obvious. Only In Italy In The G7 Is A Bit Poor, But One Of The Most Dangerous Moment Has Passed, And Back Against The Euro This Big Tree, The Ability To Resist Risk Is Better Than A Single Country.

Look At The So-Called New G7, In Addition To China Has Entered A New Normal Reform And Adjustment Of The Economy. Other Countries Each Have Each Question – India’S Economy Has Developed Hysteresis For Many Years, Mr Modi Effect Time To Test; Russia’S Geopolitical Crisis, Trapped In Ukraine By The Us And Europe Continue To Overweight Breath Of Economic Sanctions, And Rely On Energy Economy Of The Polar Bear Is Suffering Unprecedented Winter Test; Brazil’S Economy Structural Difficulties Encountered, This Year’S Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Is Expected To Be 0.4% And 1.5%. This Month’S Election, Ms Rousseff Will Encounter Severe Challenges. As For The Three Mint Economies, Mexico, Indonesia And Turkey Also There Is A Common Fault In Emerging Markets: Capital Flight, Inflation And Slow Growth.

Through The Test Of The Economic Crisis, Anti-Risk Ability Is Not Increased But Weak In Emerging Markets. This Leads To A Strange Phenomenon, The Resistance To The Crisis, The Dollar Quantitative Easing, Emerging Markets In Trouble; The United States To Quantitative Easing, Normalizing Interest Rates, Emerging Markets And A Disorder. Is Visible, Emerging Markets Are Still In A Supporting Role In The Global Economy, And Can’T Afford To Ups And Downs Of The Developed Economies. The Geneva Global Economic Report Released Recently, Even Thought A New Round Of Global Crisis Could Erupt From Emerging Markets.

Besides, New G7 Is Imaginary Dummy, Now And In The Future Is Likely To Grow Into The G7 As The Strength Of The Political And Economic Entities. Even Early Mechanism Into The Brics Countries, Only On The Financial Cooperation With Preliminary Results, The Game Is Still In Its Infancy In The Cooperation Of The Global Economic Order. Even At The Present Stage In The Future For A Period Of Time, It Is Difficult To Make The Same Sound. The G7 Club Of Rich Countries Is Not Only The Economic Coordination, But Also Can Coordinate On Geopolitical Position.

New The G7 And False True G7 Together Is A Joke. As For The PPP GDP Index Of Transcendence, Only A Symbolic Metaphor – The Economic Potential Of Emerging Markets To Be Reckoned With. Even So, The PPP Index Statistics Is Not Exact And Dynamic Complexity, Also Make This Virtual Symbol Fleet Moving.

Foreign Exchange Through “New Normal” The Institutional Investment Investment Big Age

Foreign Exchange On September 2 – In The Face Of Such A Large Partial Shares Fund, Plus Huge Fund Manager’S Investment Style Differences, Select Funds Has Become A Pile Of Engineering. For Individual Investors, Follow The Footsteps Of Institutional Investors To Buy Fund, May Be More Appropriate Strategies, And Released The Latest Fund A Semi-Annual Exposure By Institutional Investors Choose Preferences.

With 3 Chinese Businessman Fund’S Blue-Chip Fund Chinese Theme, The Chinese Value And Chinese Businessman Quantitative Funds, For Example, Institutional Investors Holding Share Of These Funds In The First Half Of The Average Doubled. Chinese Businessman Fund Each Fund Half Annual Report Disclosure, Such As Institutional Holding Chinese Value Selection Of Share Increased From 142 Million At The End Of Last Year To The Middle Of The Year 232 Million, 63% Increase; Institutions Share Holding A Chinese Businessman Quantitative Funds Increased From 210 Million At The End Of Last Year To The Middle Of The Year 417 Million, 98%; Institutions Holding Chinese Topic Selection Of Share Increased From 106 Million At The End Of Last Year To The Middle Of The Year 221 Million, 109%.

Congenial Days Of Statistics Show That The 3 Only Institutions To Increase The Funds For Chinese Businessman Fund Its Star Products, Performance Is Very Outstanding In Recent Years, Such As Chinese Value Selection, Rose 33.83% Last Year, This Year Has Once Again Rose 25.93%, Chinese Theme Selected Fund Performance, More Excellent Since Last Year And This Year, Rose 63.42% And 63.42% Respectively, The Establishment Of The New Chinese Businessman Fund Last Year The Market Quantitative Earnings For Two Consecutive Years By More Than 20%, And From Chinese Businessman Fund Disclosure Half Annual Report We Can Find That Chinese Quantitative Funds Holding Proportion Is As High As Seventy Percent Above.

In Fact, Has Always Been, Institutions Are Of Important Public Offering Fund Holder. At The End Of 2013 In 3.06 Trillion Public Funds, Institutions Holding 0.785 Trillion, Accounting For More Than A Quarter.

Historically, Institutional Investors Holding The Number Of Share Not Like Individual Investors Share Presents The Explosive Growth In 2007, But A Steady Growth Trend. It Is Worth Noting That The Institutions Hold Fund Portfolio Performance Over The Market As A Whole. Hold Half A Cycle, From The Point Of Stock Share Data, Institutional Investors Hold Active Equity Open-End Fund After 2008 Victory Over The Market Average, And Individual Investors To Hold The Fund Did Not Beat The Market Average.

Haitong Securities Research Said Once, Since The 15 In The Half Year Of 2006 To 2013, Institutional Investors Get A Better Investment Than Individual Investors The Overall Effect. Institutional Investors Hold Share Of The Fund In 12 Received Positive Excess Return In Half A Year; Not Beat The Market Average Three Half Year Respectively In The First Half Of 2007, The First Half Of 2009 And The First Half Of 2011. The Individual Investors In The Three Half A Year Only Positive Excess Returns Are Obtained.

Swing Between Economy In Recession And Recovery, Are Calm, The New Normal Is Coming, But The Capital Market And Industry, But Has Been Blustery. A Fund Manager Of Infinite Regrets: Huge Population Base And Abundant Private Wealth, Often Lead To A Good Product Or Business Model Can Quickly Obtain A Large Number Of Users, To Rapidly Realize Industrialization, It Is Hard To Imagine It In Foreign Markets!


Industries In Accelerating Integration, High-Quality Listed Companies Through The Capital Market Access To Capital And Brand Advantages, Through Gathering Talents, Capacity Expansion, New Product Research And Development, The Denotative Expansion Methods, Such As Rapid Market Share Occupied And Cut Into New Areas Of Strategic Layout.

In Their Opinion, This Is Characteristics Of The Next Few Years, Is Also The Angle Of Investment Should Be.

And Capital Markets Continue To Seek The Clues Of Reform And Growth, A New Subject, Was A Big Time Has Come…

For The Rest Of The Investment, The Fund Managers Are No Longer A Pessimist. Benefit From The Reform And The Dividend Policy Of Strategic Emerging Industries And The Reform Of State-Owned Enterprises, Will Become The Key Layout.

Research Also Shows, From The Perspective Of The Fund Portfolio Of Institutions To Increase Significantly Better Than That Of Underweight Funds. For 2008 Years Later, The Organizations And Individuals Increase And Reduce Its Active Equity Open-End Fund Portfolio Performance Empirical Inspection, Found That Incrementally Share As Weighting Mechanism To Increase Fund Portfolio Relative To Fund Holdings Of Excess Returns Significantly, Excess Return Of 0.95% On Average. In Addition, The Combination Of The Weighted Average Excess Returns Relative To A Combination Of Simple Average Higher Excess Returns. And Institutions Liquidity Base Selection Effect Than Institutions Stock Fund A Base Selection Effect Is More Outstanding.

Fewer But For Individual Investors, Institutional Investors, But There Is Large, In And Out Of The Action Is Too Large To Fund Operation Also Can Have Certain Effect, Especially For Small Funds. But Institutional Investors Have Better Judgment And Sensitivity, For Information And Research Strength Of Weak Obviously Individual Investors, Pay Close Attention To Changes In The Institutional Investors In The Fund May Be Appropriate For Investment Has Certain Help.

The New Normal: Periodic Swing

Xi General Secretary Put Forward, The Chinese Economy Enters The New Normal, High-Speed Economic Growth From The Past Turned Into A Medium Speed, Which Has Been Gradually Accepted By The Market…

In The Construction Of Citic Securities, The Swing Of The Economic Cycle Will Continue. In Terms Of The Current, Is Gradually Transition From Recession To Recovery, And The Short Period Since The Third Quarter Of 2012 Rebound Pattern Shows That The Recovery Of Unsustainable, Lasts For 3 To 5 Months, To Speculate That The Rebound In Short Cycle, May And June Fourth Quarter Dropped Again Is Also Possible, Before That, The Steady Growth And Cycle Of Inertia, Makes The Current Trend Is Maintained.

Poor Economy, The Overall Data, Strengthened The Policy Of Market Preserved Growth Expectations, The Central High-Level Also Repeatedly Said Economic Importance, Now See, May Be In The Process Of Bottoming. Bao Surplus Hon, Believe That The Future Trend Of The Real Estate Is The Key, At Present The Infrastructure Is Still More Hedge, But It Is Hard To Support The Economy Independently. Restructuring Will Continue To Be A Consensus For A Long Time, The Focus Is Still Mainly In The Implementation Of The Reform And The Long-Term Benefit From The Variety Of Economic Restructuring.

In 2014 The Overall Macro Economy Is Still In The Stage Of Slow Growth. Mailed In Strategic Emerging Industries Ren Zesong Judgment, Investment, Capital Source Improved, Infrastructure Investment Has Increased Dramatically, But Investment In Real Estate Investment Is Still The Largest Drag. Consumption Aspect, Must And Optional Consumption Have Rebounded, But After The Base Factors Gradually Eliminate, Is Expected To Subsequent Growth Hard To Continue. Surplus Hit A New High In Recent Years, Exports, But Exports To Domestic Economic Impact Of Elasticity Is Weakening.

In Long Dual Optimization (519991, Fund It) Talk About Jie Ying’S Eyes, The Economic Level, In The Second Half Of 2014 Or More A Policy The Palm, But Need To Pay Attention To The Different Policy Reform And Stimulus. Reform And Stimulate The Difference Is That Stimulus Is Not Lasting, Will Choose To Leave, And Reform Is The Historical Continuity, Represents The Direction For A Long Time.

What Is Undeniable Is That The Macroeconomic Still Down Its Growth Process, With The Deepening Of Economic Transformation, The Government Must Also Accept The Reality Of Economic Growth Target Down, So The Bottom Line Thinking Does Not Mean That The Future Economic Growth Rebounded Sharply, Just In Order To Strive For More Reform And Transition Of Time And Space. The Government Macro Economic Growth Over The Next Couple Of Years There Is Still A Strong Control, The Probability Of A Hard Landing Or Large Debt Risk Is Almost Zero.

Although Total Growth Is Slowing, But The Quality Of Economic Growth And The Optimization Of Economic Structure, Structural Adjustment That Many Industry Facing New Development Opportunities. Icbc Information Industry Fund Believes That In The Process Of The Above, The Stock Market Participate In The Economic Operation Quality, Say Goodbye To The Speculation, Will Be Truly Effective Resource Allocation To Reflect The Social And Economic Development In The Most Efficient Areas.

The Fed’S Helicopter Strike Force Yellen Tai Chi Capability

On Wednesday This Week (17 September) The Much-Anticipated Fed Interest Rate Decision Is Finally Over, As The Market Expected, The Federal Reserve Kept The Federal Funds Rate At 0-0.25% Of The Record Low Constant, Cut Bond Buying $10 Billion To $10 Billion A Month Per Month, Reiterated In Asset Purchase Programme After A Long Time To Maintain Loose Monetary Policy Stance Is Still Appropriate. The Market Had Expected The Federal Reserve Will Take Quite A Long Period Of Time The Wording Of The Take Out, But The Fed Still Did Not Change The Previous Statement.

Throughout The Interest Rate Decision Statement, We Can See That The Overall Tone Is Relatively Hawkish, Failed To Respond To Two Key Indicators Of Inflation And Employment Is To Prevent The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Early In The Short Term A Key Factor, Interest Rates Stay A Long Time The Key Statements Have Not Been Removed Is Proof Of That, In Particular Is At The Same Time, The Fed’S Policy Statement, Said Policymakers About The End Of 2015 The Median Forecast Of 1.375%, 1.25% Higher Than The Previous Value, Pointed Out The Possible Future Interest Rate Target In Disguised Forms, And Suggests That The Market For The First Time In The Future Could Raise Rates Of Rhythm.

The Fed Also Made Clear Details Of Future Exit Process, Outlined A Plan To Take In The Process Of Normalization Of Monetary Measures. In The Fed’S Plan, Is Expected To Start Raising Interest Rates After The End Or Winding Down From Maturing Funds For Reinvestment, Specific Operation Will Be Depending On The Economic Situation At That Time.

The Fed Said, It Doesn’T Sell MBS Is Expected To Become A Part Of Normalization Of Monetary Policy, Estimated In The Future Will Only Hold Us Treasury Bonds; Will Only Stop Investment After Raising Interest Rates, Its Time Depends On The Economic And Financial Environment, Only Will Use Reverse Repos As A Necessary Means, And Will Phase Out, When Not Needed $300 Billion Limit Measures; Will Mainly Depend On Excess Reserves, To Control The Interest Rate Target.

Have Market Analysts Pointed Out That The Federal Reserve For The Most Number Of Words In Two Years Time, The Reaction Of Communication Between The Fed And The Market Is Good, The Focus Is On Good Explains Is What To Do, What To Do, Also Illustrates What To Do. Yellen Also In Subsequent News Conference, Said The Market Understanding Is Very Important For The Fed’S Policy Stance. This Policy Statement (For The Most Number Of Words) Since 2012

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) In Resolution Reiterated In A Statement Released After The Meeting, Highly Accommodative Monetary Policy At The End Of The Asset Purchase Program After A Long Time. Before The FOMC Meeting, Will Market To The Fed’S Policy Meeting In September In Cancellation Rate Predictive Guidance For A Long Time The Expected Intensified.

Is The Representative Of The Fed’S Policy On The Very Accurate Interpretation And Anticipation, And Was Known As The Fed News Agency Well-Known Financial Journalist Jon Hilsenrath Predict The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates In Policy Statement Such As A Long Key Statements.

Just Before The Fed’S Decision, JON HILSENRATH Admit That This Is Only An Accurate, Relevant Interest Rates Stay A Long Time Is Out Of His Analysis. What Would Happen, Only Knows The Fed.

The Fed Also Reiterated That The U.S. Inflation Below Target, But Stable Inflation Expectations, Will Keep Close Attention To; Reiterated That When Deciding On How Long Keep 0-0.25% Of The Federal Funds Rate, Will Assess The 2% Inflation Target And Full Employment On The Expected Progress; Reiterated That The U.S. Economy Is Likely To Moderate Expansion, The Job Market Will Gradually Improve, Prospects The Risks Is Roughly Balanced.

The Federal Reserve Has Said That, Few Changes In The Unemployment Rate In The United States, Most Of The Indicators Show That The Job Market Significantly Underutilized Labor Resources.

The Interest Rate Decision Of The Vote To Speak, The Philadelphia Fed Chairman I. Plosser And Dallas Fed Chairman Fisher Opposition.

The Committee Issued 17 Policy Committee Quarterly Forecast For The Economy And Interest Rates, And First Announced To Expected In 2017, Suggests That The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Is June Is Expected To Speed Up Pace. The Expected Value Of Decision Makers, The End Of Next Year Interest Rates At 1.375%, The Forecast Of 1.125% In June; At The End Of 2016 Was 2.875%, The Previous Forecast Of 2.50%; 3.75% In 2017.

The Gold Price Empty Potential Is Good Only Follow The Trend Of Next Week

Gold Cast The Net On September 13, The Price Of Gold Asian Time Early Gradually Fell To $1230, Slightly Pull Up To Around $1240 At The End Of The Period. Early European Time, The Price Of Gold In Tight Trading Range Between $1240 – $1235.50, Then Extended Losses, And Below $1230. In The New York Times, The Price Of Gold To Refresh A Eight And A Half Months Low Of $1227.39 An Ounce, Then Rebounded Slightly Consolidation Near $1230.

The Highest Spot Gold Hit $1241.50 An Ounce, Minimum Test Of $1227.39 An Ounce, Compared With The Previous Trading Day Opening Price Of $1240.50 An Ounce Fell $10.60, Or 0.85%, To $1229.90 An Ounce.

From The Point Of View Of Recent Economic Data, The U.S. Economy Has Started To Healthy Recovery. However, Due To Recent Disappointing U.S. Jobs Data, The Fed Tend To Wait For The Subsequent Employment Data On The State Of The Us Labour Market Recovery Is Further Confirmation And Then Take Decision.

Due To The Early Market For Expectations Have Reaction Has Been Raising Interest Rates, And The Weak Employment Data In The Short Term Delay The Arrival Of The American Interest Rates, Together With The Dollar Index Is Near The Peak Of The Last Four Years, Could Face A Callback, In The Short Term For The Suppressing Effect Of Metal Can Be Reduced.

The International Gold Prices This Week, All The Way Through, Short And Strong City Closed At 1230.8, Brush The Low Of 1227.4, A Variety Of Indicators Phenotypic Bearishness Works Well.

International Gold Prices Is Expected Next Week Week Continue To Dip Slightly Rebounded. When The Running Of The Trend, We Don’T Want To Guess Where Is Low, Only Follow The Trend, For Those Routes.

1222 Is An Important Support, If The International Gold Prices This Support Was Broken, So I Think The Market Will Be Directly Run 1200, Perhaps Will Breakdown, 1200 To 1180.

To The Current Level, Some People Say That For Those Routes, Also Someone Says Bottom! Who Has A Right, But To Consider What They Can Withstand The Risk Can! A Buck To Timely Take Breakeven Stop, Pick The Single Out, In Time To Avoid Market Rally.

Gold Cast Net (Http://Www.Cngold.Org) Gold Market, According To The Center Of Beijing Time, Prominence Today Spot Gold Prices To $1229.32 An Ounce.

The American Economy Without Concern With Foresight

The U.S. Department Of Commerce, According To Data Released On September 26Th, Strong Growth In The Second Quarter Of The United States, Increase Its Fastest Since The Fourth Quarter Of 2011. Then The Dollar Index Rose Quickly, Exchange Rate Reached 85.47, The Highest High Refresh Nearly Four Years.

The United States In The Second Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Season Rate Has Not Disappointed The Market, The Repair Is 4.6% In Line With Expectations, Which Will Also Declared The Dollar Rallied For 11 Weeks, The Longest In 40 Years, And In Stark Contrast To The Euro And Yen.

According To The Personage Inside Course Of Study Analysis, Robust Economic Recovery In The United States, Also Have To Raise Interest Rates Expected, Dollar Bull Is Expected To The Next Level.

Dollar Short-Term Bullish On The Long Term Failure

, According To Data Released By The Us Department Of Commerce Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In The Second Quarter Of The Final Value Season Annualised Rate Of 4.6% Growth, Is Expected To Grow 4.6%, Revised 4.2% Growth, Shrank By 2.1% In The First Quarter Final.

Sub-Index, The United States In The Second Quarter Of Enterprise Investing Congress Season Rate Increases By 9.7%, Business Spending On Season Annualised Growth Rate To 11.2%, Consumer Spending In The Second Quarter Of Season Annualised Rate Of 2.5% Growth.

The Data Also Show That Services Spending Contribution To The Overall Growth Rate Of 0.42% In The Second Quarter Of The United States; Personal Consumption Expenditure Contribute 1.75%; The Domestic Private Sector Investment 2.87% Cumulative Contribution, Including Inventory Contribute 1.42%.

Then, According To The Data Review (Reuters) – The Second Quarter On Almost All Sectors Of The Economy Have Repaired; The United States In The Second Quarter GDP From The Initial 4%, Revised By 4.2%, 4.6% To The Final Value, A Strong Rebound Is Solid; And Manufacturing Industry, Trade And Building Indexes Showed That The Second Quarter Strong Will Spread To The Third Quarter, The Current Market Of 7 ~ 9 Month GDP Growth Forecast Has Been Raised To 3.6% This Year.

Last Week, The Dollar Index Then Rapid Rise, Exchange Rate Rose To 85.47, The Highest Refresh Twice Level In Nearly Four Years, According To The Bulls’ Kinetic Energy Is Still Abundant.

This Good Momentum, The Chinese Academy Of Social Sciences Institute Of World Economics And Politics, Executive Director Of The U.S. Economy Research Center Monchi Is Not Optimistic: In The Short Term, The Dollar Performance Is Better, But Does Not Favor In The Long Run. In The Last 3 ~ 5 Years At Least, This Is Closely Related To The Fed’S Policy. After Quantitative Easing Gradually Withdraw From, Monetary Policy Will Change, Dollars Are Needed In The International Market Will Also Change. At Present, The Economy Vibrant, Elastic, Trade Gradually Restored, The Real Estate Industry Is Good, But From The Income Distribution, The Middle Class Economy, Financial Supervision Effectiveness As Well As The National Debt Is Piling Up, There Is No Solution Ways, Such As The United States Will Be In The Short Term Economic Boom For A Period Of Time, But The Problem Has Not Been Fundamentally Solved, Is Expected To Barack Obama In His Second Term Will Not Change Too Much.

For The Dollar Short-Term Movements, The Ministry Of Finance Institute For Fiscal Science Doctor, Associate Professor Of International Studies At The University Of Wuhan Ying-Chun Miao Thinks, From The Past More Than Ten Years Of Experience, The Better Economic Situation Is Likely To Drive The Dollar Rallied, But Not Necessarily Stick And Depends On The Us Government Policy On Export Growth And Monetary Policy. From Now Until This Year, Under The Consumption Of The Drive, The American Economy Will Be Further Consolidated. In The Long Term, The Dollar Is Closely Related To The Economy.

The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Big Differences

The Federal Reserve Announced This Month, According To The Latest Economic Forecasts This Year’S GDP Growth Was 2.0% ~ 2.2%. Even In The Second Quarter GDP Growth Rebounded To 4.6%, The Second Half Of The Quarterly Growth In The U.S. Economy Also Should Be Around 3% To The Fed’S Annual Target.

Ying-Chun Miao Thinks, Early Next Year, Since The Implementation Of Monetary Policy Adjustment And Is Bound To Affect The Economy. In The Middle Of 2015, Or At The End Of Quantitative Easing Will Quit, Since The First Half Of 2015, Higher Interest Rates Will Enter The Stage. Stand Or Fall Of The Current U.S. Economic Data, Recovery Did Not Achieve Expected Goals, So The Fed Is Mainly Internal Divisions For Higher Interest Rates In Time.

It Is Understood That Each Member Of The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Each Quarter Must Benchmark Interest Rates In The Future To Make A Judgment. Released On September 17, According To The Latest Forecast, 14 Of 17 Officials Expect The Federal Funds Rate At Some Point Next Year Will Rise To The Level Of Zero Or More; After The Committee Is Expected To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time Was In 2006. The Interest Rate Of The FOMC, Estimate Did Not Give A More Accurate Date.

On December 31, 2015 In Interest Rates Will Be At What Level Of Forecast Range Of 0.125% ~ 2.875%, Indicating That They Has Different Views On The Pace Of Tightening. In September The Median Forecast Of Up To 1.375%, Higher Than In June Released The Previous Forecast Level Of 1.125%.

To This, Monchi Analysis Way: The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Have Been Big Differences, Mainly They Has Different Views For The Us Economy. It Depends On The Matriarch Yellen Boldness, But Now She Is Moderate, Should Play The Role Of Coordination On Both Sides.

On October 7 Stories APP Selection For Breakfast


The S&Amp;P 500 Index Fell 0.16%; The Nasdaq Composite Index Fell 0.47%; The Dow Jones Industrial Average Fell 0.10%.

The German DAX Stock Index Up 0.15%; The Ftse 100 Index Rose 0.55%; The French Cac 40 Index Rose 0.11%.

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Fell 2 Basis Points, To 2.43%.

Slump In The Dollar Against The Euro, The Dollar Against The Yen Tumbling.

For Delivery In December In New York Gold Futures Prices Rose 1.2%, Closing At $1206.7 An Ounce.

WTI Oil Prices Closed At $90.34 A Barrel, Up 0.7%.


Business Insurance Almost $2 Billion Buying American Landmark Waldorf Astoria Hotel In New York.

The World Bank Cut China This Year And Next Year’S Economic Growth Rate To 7.4% And 7.2%.

Since September 28 Of Events In The Upgrade, Traders Will Be More Than $200 Million Into The Track Are Shares In Hong Kong And Six Largest ETF.

The Financial Times Said India Or Will Soon Overtake China To Become The World’S Largest Marine Steam Coal Consumer.


The Federal Reserve Announced New Indicators Reflect The Status Of The Job Market, Labor Market Conditions Index, The Index For September 2.5, On August 2.

HP Announced To Spin Off The PC And Printer Business, Shares Rose 6%.

The European

Scientists Expect The Ebola Epidemic Spread To Britain And France This Month, The Biggest Possibility By 75%; The First Ebola Spain, Norway.

The French Conflict With The European Union, The European Union To Veto France’S 2015 Budget, Because Of Its Deficit Not Up To Standard.

Although Latvia’S Centre-Right Party In Parliamentary Elections To Preserve The Ruling Status, But The Pro-Russian Locking Status In The Largest Party In Parliament.

The Euro Zone’S October Sentix Investor Confidence Index Is 13.7, The Lowest In May 2013 To, Expected – 11.0, The Value Is 9.8.

German Manufacturing Orders After 8 Chinese Rose Adjustable Plunged 5.7%, The Biggest Drop In Five Years, Is Expected To 2.5%.

Glencore Prepared To Acquire Mining Company Rio Tinto.


Brazil’S Presidential Election First Round Exit Polls Showed That The Incumbent President Rousseff Lead With 44% Vote Election.

Gold Prices On Hard To Have A Big Surprise

Gold Cast The Net On September 17, The Price Of Gold To Maintain Trading Near $1237 On Wednesday, Before The FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting, Gold Or Difficult To Have A Big Surprise.

From Recent Published August Related Data, The Possibility Of Unchanged Is Relatively High. But Because The Financial Calendar Today Face The Cause Of The Release Of The FOMC Meeting Late, If Any Accident May Cause The Market Speculative Enthusiasm, Appear, Investors Still Need To Be Vigilant.

In The Second Quarter Of The Current Account, Due To Increase In Trade Deficit In The Second Quarter, International Capital Flows, To Reduce The Current Account Data By This Influence Is Likely To Exceed Market Expectations, There Was Substantial Negative Growth.

The NAHB Housing Market Index In September, Due To Rising Real Estate Data In August, This May Be Higher. Although The Effects Of The Data Itself Is Limited, But As A Link In A Chain Of Evidence, The Real Estate Industry Recovery Is Worth Investors To Focus On.

Today Evening, The Fed’S Interest Rate Decision And Press Conference Chairman Yellen Will Become The Market Focus On Priority. Almost Certain That The Resolution Rate Will Remain Unchanged. Has Been In The Market, However, Focus On The Economic Forecast Report To Be Released Together With The Interest Rate Decision And Fed Chairman Yellen’S Press Conference.

Day Online Watch, Gold Small Rebound This Week, Cloth Belt Openings, Short-Term Average Showed A Trend Of Short Arrangement, The Current 1242 By 10 Average Repression. MACD Indicators, Double Zero Line Below, And The Green Column. Random Index, Oversold Zone Gold Fork Continued. A Short-Term Correction Repair Still Today.

In The Short Term, The Price Of Gold Above 1242, Effective Breakthrough 1242 A Rally To Test 1260 A Line Of Resistance, The Focus On The Early Stage Of The 1225 Low, Below This Position, Will Test 1200 Round Number, The Gold Market Overall Trend Of Short, Beware Of Short-Covering Rally.

4 Hours, The Price Of Gold Cloth Binding Off Three Rail Flat Belt, Gold Around The Top And Bottom Rail Range-Bound, MACD Indicators, Double Line Below The Zero Line, Andalusite, Stochastic Death Fork, Short-Term Shocks.

Overall, Today’S Gold Prices Below Focus On 1230-1228 Line, Focus On Above 1242, Short-Term Round This Interval Operation. Evening Breakthrough Conveniently Follow This Interval.

Gold Cast Net (Http://Www.Cngold.Org) Gold Market, According To The Center Of Beijing Time As, Today’S Gold Prices To $1236.65 An Ounce.

Gold Dollars A Week Macro Summary: Slowdown In Manufacturing The Housing Mixed

On September 15 To September 19: This Week The Dollar Mixed Macro Data, But The Dollar Still Rely On The Fed To Tough, And Sharply Higher. A Stronger Dollar International Spot Gold Prices Constantly Refresh The Callback Low, Approaching 1200 Integer.

The U.S. Housing Market Data Have Different Performance, In September The NAHB Housing Price Index Rose To 59.0 Further, Refresh The Highest Level Since 2005; But The New Housing Starts Fell Unexpectedly, Monthly Decline In 16 Months.

Manufacturing, In September The Philadelphia Fed A Small Decline In Manufacturing, The Recent Regional Fed Manufacturing Strong Trend Seems To Be Eased; In Addition, Industrial Production Unexpectedly Fell In August, Strong Auto Sales Can Be Sustained, Worthy Of Attention.

Forward-Looking Indicators, Counselor To Slow Leading Indicators, Fell To A Low 7 Months.

Housing Data Mixed Housing Series Contain Risk

U.S. Housing Starts In August Plunge, Hit One-Month Decline Since April 2013, The Largest Still Uneven, Suggests That America’S Housing Market Rebound Will Inhibit The Momentum Of Economic Recovery To A Certain Degree.

The U.S. Department Of Commerce (DOC) On Thursday, September 18), According To Data Released U.S. Housing Starts In August Month Rate Plummeted 14.4% To 956000 Units, Expected 1.038 Million, Before The Value Of Correction For 1.117 Million Households.

Moody “S Analytics, Inc., A Senior Economist Sweet Said Before Data, Still Tightening Credit, The Recovery Of The Economy At The Same Time, Did Not Bring Enough Wage Growth, Thus Makes The First-Time Home Buyers.

Sweet Added, Want To See The Property Market To Present A Full Recovery, You Also Need To Labor Market, Wages And Other More Strong Rebound, Also Help Boost The Confidence Of The Buyers.

However, The Market Outlook Remains Bullish On Builders. The National Association Of Home Builders (National Association Of Home Builders (17 September) Said In A Statement On Wednesday, The United States The NAHB Housing Price Index Rose To 59.0 In September, At High Since 2005, Analysts’ Forecast Of 56.0, Before The Value Of 55.0.

The NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly Said In A Statement, Improving Labor Market Prospects Are Increasingly Clear, Since Early This Summer, Most American Builders Confidence Continued To Rise, This Is A Positive Sign, Indicates That The Real Estate Market Is Moving In The Right Direction.

Regional Fed Manufacturing Can Stay Strong?

The Philadelphia Fed (Philadelphia Fed) On Thursday, September 18, Said In A Report, The Manufacturing Activity In September Within Its Jurisdiction Back Slightly, Temporarily From The High Since March 2011, Showed That Manufacturing Activity In The United States To Improve Stabilizing Momentum.

In September, According To The American Philadelphia Fed’S Manufacturing Index Fell To 22.5, The Forecast Of 23.0, 28.0 In August.

Manufacturing Figures Released By The New York Fed And The Philadelphia Fed Is Seen As The Us ISM Manufacturing Index Of Leading Indicators, Also Often With It To Predict The ISM Manufacturing Index.

In Addition, The United States On August Decline In Industrial Output, The Main Drag From The Car. U.S. Auto Sales In Summer Is Strong, Is An Important Factor To Boost Consumption And Industrial Orders. The Trend Is To Keep The U.S. Economy Is An Important To Watch.

The Federal Reserve (FED) On Monday (Sept. 15), According To Data Released The United States In Industrial Output Fell 0.1% In August, Is Expected To Grow 0.3%, Before The Value Of Correction For 0.2% Growth.

Forward-Looking Indicators To Slow Down

The Conference Board (Conference Board) On Friday (Sept. 19) Said In A Report, The Leading Index In August Month Rate Is Slowing Sharply, And Its Lowest Recorded Seven Months, Or Show Strong Recovery Of The World’S Largest Economy Remains To Be Seen.

In August, According To The American Conference On Leading Indicators Rate Increases By 0.2%, To 103.8, Is Expected To Grow By 0.4%, The Former Value Correction For 1.1% Growth.

Data Also Showed That The United States On August Conference Synchronous Index On Rate Increases By 0.2%, The Former Value Increased By 0.2%.

In Addition To The United States On August Conference Lagging Indicator On Rate Increases By 0.2%, The Former Value Increased By 0.2%.

Is A Leading Indicator Assessment Including The Employment Of The U.S. Economy As A Whole, Average Weekly Manufacturing Work, Early Claims, Building Permits, Stock Prices And The Future Development Trend Of The Yield Curve, Etc. It Is An Important Index Of U.S. Economic Stable Growth.

The Dollar Rose Can Save The World Economy?

Beijing Time On October 6, HSBC Bank (HSBC), According To A Report The Dollar Bull Market Has Room To Rise Further, While The Dollar Can Help Countries That Low Inflation Relieve The Pain.

Strong U.S. Economic Data And The End Of The Fed’S Quantitative Easing (QE) And Raise Interest Rates Expected To Promote, Track The Dollar Against A Basket Of Currencies, The Dollar Index Has Risen Nearly 7% This Year.

But The Dollar’S Rise Is Only Just Beginning, HSBC, Said In A Report. HSBC Analyst Pointed Out That This Year And Next Year The Dollar Is The World’S Most Powerful Currencies.

HSBC Report Pointed Out That The Current Rising Dollar And We See Is Different… So Far Up Only About 5%, But History Shows Likely 20% Rise.

Products Generally Believe That If The United States Due To The Dollar And Too Expensive, So The Buyer Of These Goods Will Try To Find Alternatives To Abroad, Boost Demand, Thus Causing Prices To Rise.

Although The Euro Zone Economies Such As Inflation To The Target Levels Requires The Dollar Rose Sharply, And This Could Increase Us Policymakers Is Unacceptable, A Strong Dollar Is Still Able To Help These Areas To Ward Off Deflation Threat, HSBC Analyst Added.

HSBC Said The Dollar Might Not Be Able To Save The World, But Certainly Can Buy Time For These Economies.

The Strength Of The Dollar But It Is Not Only The Factors Caused By The United States, HSBC Analyst Pointed Out That It Is Also The Result Of The Currency War Between The Global Economy. But This Time The Currency Wars Are Different From The Past. Cases, Usually Deliberately Devalue Currency War Is A Government In Order To Obtain Competitive Advantage Relative To Other Countries.

Due To The Japanese Government, For Example, A Massive Economic Stimulus Plan, Since The Beginning Of 2013 The Yen Rate Has Exceeded 25%.

HSBC, But Analysts Said The Currency War Characteristics Have Changed, Other Economies To Promote The Purpose Of Currency Devaluation Is Primarily To Avoid Deflation, Rather Than Through Exports To Boost Growth.

HSBC Said: Stimulate Exports Is At Best A Second Goal. This Is A Targeted For Inflation Rather Than Growth Of Currency War. HSBC Believe That This Is The Dollar Will Continue To Rise Another Factor.

Dollar’S Relative Strength Is Likely To Be Those Who Face Deflationary Economy Good Medicine, Such As The Euro Zone, HSBC Report Said. The Eurozone Inflation Further To 0.3% In September, Is Much Lower Than The European Central Bank’S 2% Inflation Target.

The Global Economic Indicators Qi Liang Yellow Light Turbulent Autumn Has Come?

The Dollar Index (22 September), The New York Times On Monday Early Reached 84.86 Down Slightly After More Than Four Years Of High, Late Trading At 84.70 On The Line, Fluctuation Is Relatively Limited. After Intensive Risk Events Over Last Week, This Week Is More Subject To Market Situation Gradually Turned To The Global Economic Fundamentals Of The Message. And From The Last Weekend Of The G20 Meeting, As Well As The Economic Data Released On Monday Showed, Economic Prospects For The Overall Situation Is Not Optimistic, Or Having A Direct Effect On Investor Sentiment.

On Monday, The National Association Of Realtors (NAR) (22 September) On Monday, According To Data Released In August Sales Of Previously Owned Homes In Annualized Rate Fell Unexpectedly, Because Investors Have Withdrawn From The Market, But Fell Again This Does Not Mean That The Real Estate Industry Is Weak. August Existing-Home Sales The United States, According To The Specific Data On Annualized Rate Dropped 1.8% To 5.05 Million Units, The Fall Over Rising For Four Months Before, Had Expected Will Increase To 5.2 Million Households. From 5.15 Million To 5.14 Million In July.

The Weak Us Housing Data Show Surprise To Previously Bet On The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Ahead Of The Market Investors Feel Some Consternation. And NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun Said That The United States On August Sales Of Previously Owned Homes On The Rate Of Decline Reflects Investors Buy Houses To Reduce, Dropped To The Lowest Level Since November 2009. While This May Be Because The Impact Of Continuous Fermentation By The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Expected.

Economic Data In The United States, But Performance Is Still Not Perfect, When Considering When To Raise Interest Rates By The Federal Reserve Will Still Be Three Through A Stop 2 See. In Addition To Housing Data Is Still Underdeveloped, Before August Unexpectedly Weak U.S. Labor Market Data, And Continued At The Low End Of U.S. Inflation Data, Makes The Market Investors Choose Stop 2 See. And Emphasizes The Last Week The Federal Reserve At The End Of Quantitative Easing (QE) To Buy Bonds To Keep Interest Rates Low After Quite Some Time Later, Another Blockbuster Of The Federal Reserve Officials, The New York Fed President William Dudley Also Emphasized The Expected On Monday, Said If The Objective Conditions Permit, Low Interest Rates Will Continue To Sustain.

And Dudley Also Pointed Out At The Same Time, The Federal Reserve In The Removal Of Loose Monetary Policy Measures To Make The Policy Interest Rates Return To Normal, Also Consider The Resulting Dollar Consequences And Influence. He Stressed That The Dollar Is Not The Fed’S Policy Goal, But A Stronger Dollar Does Have The Adverse Effect Of Curb Inflation, And Will Indirectly Affect Monetary Policy Sued.

But High Frequency Economics And Industry Organization (High Frequency Economics), An Analyst At Mr Sullivan (Jim O ‘Sullivan) Also Pointed Out That Besides Dragged Down By The Lack Of Demand, There Are Some Other Factors May Also Have Played A Drag On The Performance Of U.S. Inflation.

Analysts Pointed Out That, To A Certain Extent, America’S Inflation Rate Is Lower By The Strong Dollar Hit, At The Same Time, The Rest Of The World Economy Situation Makes Commodity Futures Prices Continue To Pressure, Which Also Makes The Domestic Prices Down Further. And The Situation There Is No Reverse Trend, So The Overall Level Of Inflation In The United States Since A Long Time Or Are Still Hovering At A Relatively Low Level. This Situation Is Expected To Make The Fed Was In No Hurry To Raise Interest Rates, And Makes Further Dollar Limited Upside.

However, The Decline In Market Optimistic About The Outlook For The Us Economy At The Same Time, We View Of The Euro Zone To See Failure Is No Fundamental Change. Released On Monday September Consumer Sentiment In The Euro Zone Data Accidentally Dropped To 11.4, Further Highlights The Weakness Of The Region’S Economic Activity, It Also Makes The European Central Bank Is To Revolt, Forced To Contemplate Quantitative Easing Action Such As Direct Acquisition Of Member States National Debt. Last Week, The European Central Bank To The Bank To Provide Low-Cost Financing The Status Of The Accidental Encounter Cold, More Highlights The Necessity Of Further Easing Measures.

The European Central Bank (The European Central Bank) Governor Mario Draghi (Mario Mr Draghi) On Monday, September 22), Said The Central Bank Is Ready To Further Ease Monetary Policy When Necessary, In Response To The Euro Zone Economic Weakness And To Prevent Inflation Rate Maintained At Low Levels. And He’S The Remarks For Large-Scale Purchases Of Opened The Door.

Draghi Testimony Said In A Speech To The European Parliament, The Central Bank Has Been Prepared To Within The Scope Of Their Functions With Additional Unconventional Tools, And, Once There Are Signs That A Unconventional Tools To Cope With Further Response To Low Inflation Risk, To Prevent Inflation In The Long Time Maintain Low Cement Is Necessary, The Central Bank Is Ready To Adjust The Size Of The Unconventional Interventions, May Change Into Concrete Measures Of Conditions At The Same Time.

Mario Draghi Warned That The European Central Bank To Stimulate Economic Growth Can Do Is Very Limited, Only Governments In Europe In Terms Of Fiscal Policies Shall Be Sufficient To Cooperate, And Together With The European Central Bank (ECB), The Euro Zone Economy Is Expected To Emerge From Low-Growth Trap.

In Addition, Moody’S Keep France Last Friday In Aa1 Rating Unchanged, To The Country’S Temporary Escaped, But The Outlook Is Still Negative, And Investors About The Country’S Finances Also Pessimistic Outlook. Industry Institutions, BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) Pointed Out That France’S Overall Fiscal Outlook Is Not Optimistic, The French Government Is Proposed For The Reform Of The Fiscal Policy May Be Unable To Play On The Progress Of The Country’S Deficit And Debt Due To Help, But May Make The Situation Become Worse.

A Referendum In Scotland At The Same Time, The Spanish Catalonia From Britain After The Failure Is Still The Prospect Of Seeking Independence, Also Makes The Inside The Eurozone In The Geopolitical Face Some Uncertain Factors, Which Might Be In The Autumn To Become The New Focus Of Concern To Interested Parties.


At The Same Time, The Us And Europe, China, The Prospect Of The World’S Second Largest Economy Makes People From All Walks Of Life To The Global Economic Outlook Add More Concerns. Before The Weekend Of The G20 Meeting, China’S Finance Minister, Said The Chinese Government’S Macroeconomic Policy Will Continue To Focus On Comprehensive Goals, Especially To Maintain Employment Growth And Price Stability, Not Because Of The Change Of The Single Economic Indicators Do Big Policy Changes.

Several Days Before The August Industrial Output Data Released In China Shows That Growth Of Nearly Six Years After The Weakest, Many Analysts Have Cut Their Growth Forecasts For China. After HSBC/Markit (HSBC) On Tuesday (September 23) Will Jointly Announced The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Preview Value, And From All Walks Of Life Expect China September PMI Initial Value May Be Less Than 50, It Would Suggest That Manufacturing Activity Declined.

According To A Survey, HSBC And Markit Economics Are Expected To, According To Data Released Tuesday September China Manufacturing PMI Fell To Represent Zero Expansion Of 50, Before The Value Of 50.2 Is The Lowest Level Since May. Before China Manufacturing PMI Data Released On Tuesday, Industrial Metals Across The Board. Crude Oil Prices Also Refresh Again Low, This Makes Commodity Currencies Such As The Australian And Canadian Dollars Also Hit From Collateral.

Tuesday Is Autumnal Equinox Solar Terms, On The Western Tradition, It Represents The End Of The Summer Depressing Prices And The Beginning Of Autumn “Active” Trading. And Previous Data Also Show That The International Financial Market Will Appear In The Month Of September 11 Volatility Is Relatively Larger, Relative More Active Trading. The Financial Tsunami In 2008 In The Global Economy Over The Past Years Remains Near The Intersection Of Conditions, The Parties In This Turbulent Investors May Have More Expectations.

Spot Gold Cast The Net On September 30, Huang Jinzao Disk Operation Suggestions

On November 30, As Gold Prices Fell To 1200 Psychological Price, At The Same Time Close To Gold Bear Market Low In Recent Years, Low Price And Geopolitical Risks Brought Physical Gold Demand Increase Significantly.

The United States, Germany, Australia, China And India Have Report Said August – September Demand Signs Of Recovery, The Market Is Looking At Whether Physical Demand Can Support Gold Prices Don’T Fall Below 1180 Lows.

, According To Industry Analysts Said Gold Prices It Is Difficult To Rally From The Current Level. And From A Macro Perspective, The Market Investors Are Still Focusing On Dollar Strength And The Strength Of The American Economy, This Will Weigh On The Price Of Gold Continued.

On The Gold Price Performance Influence Factor Is Still The Data, Because Of Market Participants Try To Through The Economic Data To Assess The Strength Of The U.S. Economy And Its Influence On The Fed’S Policy.

In Addition, Gold Traders Said The Unrest In Hong Kong Could Also Hit The Region’S Retail Sales Of Gold, Especially During The Period Of The Eleventh National Day Long Vacation.

In Addition, The World’S Largest Exchange Traded Funds SPDRGoldTrust Gold Holdings By 1.20 Tons On Friday, To The Lowest Since October 2008 772.25 Tons.

High Technology On The International Gold Rush Back To Collect Small Yin Line, Day, 4 Hours After 18 Mental Note Bad Today, The International Gold Price Small Yin Line With Entities, Short Reversal, Short-Term International Gold Price Average Death Fork Down, Breakdown SAR, KDJ High Death Fork Down.

Together: Yesterday Prices Hit 1220-3 A Gleam Of Short-Term Pressure Test Effectively, The Market Is Brewing, Gold Prices Face Today On Line And The Finish Line In The Third Quarter Of 2014, Games Than Most Likely Non-Farm More Fascinating, So Be Sure To Hold Their Positions On Gold Operation Today Short Wavelengths And Broken Bits And Empty.

When Gold Run Down Today, Below 1211 Can Be Shorted, 1200 Must Be Liquidated, There Is An Important Strategic Pass Is Also Of The Garrison Area Below This Week, Is Very Important Strategic Position, There Will Be A Strong Soldier TunJi, There Will Be A Battle Here.

Or That Sentence: The Winner Is King, The Loser For Kou, Both Sides Must Be On High Alert, Not Breakdown Can Do More; If 1200 Lost, Can Wait Until 1195 To Buy Gold.

Europe Became A RMB Internationalization Breakthrough

Osborne, The Chancellor Of The Exchequer Announced On Friday That The Quasi Currency Of China’S Sovereign Bonds, Which Means That The First Renminbi Bond “Is Coming To The West. As An Old Financial Power, Following Three Months Ago London With Yuan Yuan Clearing Bank And The British Pound Can Be Directly After Trading, Promote RMB Internationalization Set Foot On A New Stage Again, This Time In Europe Become The Breach Of The RMB Internationalization Path.

When It Comes To RMB Internationalization Path, Academia, Industry, And Politics Is Generally Believed That Should Be Followed Two Three-Step Strategy, One Is From The Function, Currency – Investment Currency – The International Reserve Currency; One Is Area, Surrounding The Currency, Regional Currencies – Global Currency. From The Concrete Practice, Late Last Year The Yuan Has Seven World Pay Money, And Beyond The Euro To Become Traditional Trade Finance Second To The Dollar Currency. For The Early Stages Of The Internationalisation Of The Renminbi, Choose A Path Is The Right Thing To Do. However, In The Current International Monetary Pattern Through Refactoring, The Internationalisation Of The Renminbi Should Seek New Breakthrough, The British Government Is Follow The Cooperation.

On The One Hand, The Yuan As A Reserve Currency Has The Realistic Foundation. First, In 2008 The United States Financial Crisis, The European Sovereign Debt Crisis, And The QE Lead To Global Economic Turmoil, Has Made In Us Dollars For A Single National Currencies As The Pattern Of International Reserve Currency Is More And More Can’T Adapt To The Present Situation Of The Global Economy, Diversified International Reserve Currency Is The Trend Of The Times. Second, Our Country Has Been 4 Years Since 2010 To Become The World’S Second-Largest Economy. In The World Economic Situation Is Complicated, Difficulties And The Economic Recovery In The Developed Countries And Emerging Market Countries Economic Growth Is Slowing, Although Our Country Economy Downward Pressure Increase, But The Momentum Is Still Is Dye-In-The-Wood, The Degree Of Dependence On China Will Continuously Deepen, Will Increasingly Strong Demand For The Yuan, The Yuan As A Business, The Importance Of Economic And Financial Reserve Currency More Pressing. Third, In Recent Years, Our Country Government To Arrange A Series Of Policy Laid The Institutional Basis For The Yuan As A Reserve Currency. Especially Since This Year, The Continued Appreciation In The Yuan’S Exchange Rate Change Since 2005, Two-Way Fluctuation Floating Significantly Enhanced; In The IMF’S Capital Account Convertibility Of 40 Is Measured, The Renminbi Capital Project Implementation Convertible Above Project Have Accounted For More Than 90% Of The Total Trading Projects; Port Of Shanghai, Shanghai Free Trade Area To Expand Cross-Border Yuan Use, Interest Rate Marketization Of Financial Reform Measures Is To Speed Up RMB Convertibility Process Of Capital Projects. Central Bank Since 2008, China Has With South Korea, England, The European Union And Other 25 Countries Or Regional Monetary Authorities Of Nearly 3 Trillion Yuan Of Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement, Proof That The Yuan As A Reserve Currency Has The Certain Scale, This Also For The Renminbi To Become International Reserve Currency System Of The Experience.

Britain’S Plans To Issue Renminbi Bonds Or Scale Up To 2 Billion, And Will Raise Money For The Foreign Exchange Reserves. As Mr Osborne Represented On The Day, This Is An Historic Moment, Full Of Confidence. In View Of The Important Position In The Global Financial System, The British Move Or Will Trigger A Demonstration Effect, The Euro Zone, Switzerland And Other Advanced Western Economies Is Worth Looking Forward To Issue Similar Products. This Will Not Only Enrich The Investment Channels And Improve The Investment Function, More Importantly, Lay Solid Foundation For The RMB Become International Reserve Currency.

In The Past Two Years, On The Other Hand, The Internationalization Of RMB Speed Obviously, One Of The Prominent Feature Is The European Elements “Flashed, In Addition To The British Issuance Of RMB Bonds, Other Representative Are: June And October Last Year, China’S Central Bank Has With The Bank Of England, The European Central Bank Signed Currency Swap Agreements; Europe’S Major Financial Centers For Offshore RMB Centre, This Year’S Frankfurt, London, Luxembourg Has Won A RMB Business Clearing Bank, In The Method, The Two Sides Also Agreed To Set Up The RMB Clearing And Settlement Arrangements In Paris To Negotiate; The Renminbi And The Pound Since June Has Direct Exchange, Yuan Officially Broke Through The G7 Line.


The Yuan Has Become Popular In Europe Nation, Because With The Continuous Improvement Of Our Political Mutual Trust Level And Closer Bilateral Economic Ties, Renminbi Business Become Promising In Europe. At The End Of Last Year, The European Union Has For 10 Years To Keep The Position Of China’S Largest Trading Partner, And The Bilateral Trade Volume Of More Than $500 Billion For Three Consecutive Years. China And The Eu Have Proposed To The Bilateral Trade Volume In 2020 Reached The Target Of $1 Trillion. Further, The Continuing Weakness Of The European Economy Also Depends On The Factors Of China To Boost. Europe, Especially In Recent Years, Moreover, The Euro-Zone Countries To Dollarization Trend Is More And More Prominent. BNP Paribas Charges During The Period Of 2002 To 2012 For American Sanctions Against Sudan, Iran And Cuba Three Countries Diverted Billions Of Dollars, On June 30 By The Us Department Of Justice A Hefty Fine Of $8.97 Billion, The Event Or The Euro Zone Will Be A Massive Dollarization. , Is An Important Symbol Of The July 7 In The Belgian Capital Brussels, The European Union Headquarters Of European Union Finance Ministers Meeting, How To Promote The Euro Problem For The First Time In The Position In International Trade Issues. Since New Year’S Day 1999, In Fact, Since The Official Circulation, The Influence In The International Monetary System, And Has Become The World’S Second Largest Currency, Is The Strongest Challenger To Dollar Hegemony. But After Nearly 15 Years Of Operation, The Euro Has Not Substantive Threat To The Dollar, Most Of The Cross-Border Trade In The World Is Still In Dollars, Global Central Bank Reserves In Dollar Assets Accounting For More Than Sixty Percent, The Dollars Involved In Foreign Exchange Market Trading As High As 80%. To The Process Of Dollarization In Europe, The Usher In New Opportunities In Europe.

In English And The Cooperation, Of Course, Just A Small Step For The Internationalisation Of The Renminbi, Financial Reform In Our Country Has Not Yet Been Completed, The RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism Is Not Perfect, The Capital Account Opening Process Is Relatively Slow, The Road To The Internationalisation Of The Renminbi Is Still A Long Way To Go.

Why After QE, Recovery Of China And The United States And Europe, A Recession

Since The 2008 Financial Crisis, Countries Implementing Expansionary Monetary Policy To Fight The Recession, And Today, The Main Developed Countries Monetary Policy Has Split: The United States Tends To Tighten Monetary Policy, While Europe And Japan Continue To Relax.

The World’S Major Economies All Loose Monetary Policy, But The Results Appeared Different Results. The American Economy Recovered Gradually After Three Rounds Of QE, The Chinese Economy Into The Low Growth Rate Of The New Normal. But Mainly European Countries And Japan’S Economy Showed Signs Of Recession.

QE Is Not The Result Of The Economic Recovery, But The Gap Between Rich And Poor

Hot On Global Climate And The Cold, But Cold Heat Imbalance On The Economy. Europe And Japan’S Recent Economic Growth Significantly, Some Countries Even Back Into Recession.

The Euro Zone Second Quarter GDP Growth Of 0.7% Year-On-Year, First-Quarter GDP Growth Of 0.9% Year-On-Year. GDP Grew By 0.8% In The Second Quarter Of Germany, And Rose 2.5% Year-On-Year In The First Quarter, Germany In The Second Quarter GDP To Shrink For The First Time Since 2012. GDP Grew By 0.1% In The Second Quarter Of The French, 0.8% Year-On-Year In The First Quarter GDP Growth Was Revised. After Italy’S 0.5% Year-On-Year In The First Quarter In GDP, 0.3% Year-On-Year In The Second Quarter Of Negative Growth, Fall Back Into Recession.

Japan, Japan Real GDP In The Second Quarter To 6.8%, Year-On-Year Growth Recession In The First Quarter Year-On-Year GDP Growth Was Revised From 6.7% To 6.7%, Japan’S GDP Contracted In The Second Quarter Of The Largest Since The First Quarter Of 2011.

Compared To The Same Period, America’S Economy From The First Quarter – 2.9% In The Second Quarter GDP Grew By 4.0% Year On Year, Far More Than Expected 3.0%. In The First Half Of China’S GDP Growth Is Steady At 7.5%, Which Rose 7.4% Year-On-Year In The First Quarter, Second Quarter Year-On-Year Growth Of 7.5%, Has Realized The New Normal.

And, For The Sake Of The Thickening Of The GDP, European Countries And Even The Drugs, The Porn Industry Such As The Underground Economy Included In GDP. In May This Year, The Italian Bureau Of Statistics Said The Drugs, Prostitution, Smuggling Will Be Recorded In GDP This Year, And Last Year’S GDP Data Will Adjust Because Of This, To Reflect The New Change Of GDP Statistics Scope.

In Addition, Is The Key Of The Economic Growth To The Central Bankers. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Said On August 22, Have Confidence In June To Launch A Series Of Stimulus Measures To Boost Demand In The Eurozone, And Promising Future Quite A Long Time Will Continue To Maintain A Highly Accommodative Monetary Policy. After Draghi, Announced In March 2015 To June 2016 Will Be Implemented Six TLTRO Operation; Will Be The Size Of The TLTRO Before 400 Billion Euros To 1 Trillion Euros.

Although TLTRO Help To Reduce The Financing Cost Of Peripheral Countries Real Economy, But The Problem Is That The Momentum Of Economic Growth Is Not That QE, Etc. The Implementation Of The Loose Monetary Policy.

QE, Such As The Essence Of The Loose Monetary Policy Effect, Is In The Stock Market, Bonds And Other Financial Market Boom, With The Rising Of Corporate Profitability, But Residents Income Does Not Rise, Low-Income Groups Purchasing Power And Even Fall. In The First Half Of 2014, Global Equities, Bonds, Gold And Other Appeared So, Even Broke The Merrill Lynch, An Investment Asset Wheel Dynamic Model Of The Clock.

QE Could Not As A Driving Force For The Development Of The Economy. Historically, QE First Japan Already Implemented More Than A Dozen Rounds Of Quantitative Easing, Trillions Of Dollars, Long-Term Negative Interest Rates, Is Put Forward To Abe Economics Infinite Quantitative Easing Is Also Promoting Economic Rebound Only A Year. Recent Figures Show That The Vision Of Mr Abe’S Economic Recovery.

The Results Of QE Why So Different?

As Loose Monetary Policy, So Different Economic Effects In Different Countries. The Reason Is That Power To Promote The Growth Of Economy Is Different.

Macro Economics Tells Us That Economic Growth Comes From The Population, Capital, Technology Elements Such As Input, And The Reform Of The System After The Release Of Productive Forces. China Will Be Able To Maintain Stable Sustained Economic Growth In 30 Years, The Main Benefit From The Demographic Dividend, Although China Faces A Labor A Turning Point In 2012, Until 2020, But The Future China Will Still Maintain By An Average Of About 1% Of The Growth Rate Of Urbanization, Resulting In Increased Domestic Demand And The Chinese Government Still Has The Ability To Promote The Expansionary Fiscal Policy, Bring China’S Economic Growth, This Growth Has Been Called The New Normal. The Ongoing Dividend Caused By The Reform Of Economic System, Are Also Brought To China’S Continued Growth Momentum.

The U.S. QE Also Bring Debt Double Promoted The Prosperity Of Financial Market, But The Economic Growth Is Not From This. U.S. Manufacturing Recovery Is A Major Bright Spot, And For Developed Economies In Particular. The United States In The Second Quarter Non-Farm Productivity Grew By 2.5% Year On Year, More Than Expected 1.5%, From 3.2% In The First Quarter – Ice Values In The Same Period In The Second Quarter Non-Farm Unit Labour Costs Rose 0.6%, 1.0% Lower Than Expected. Suggests That The U.S. Economic Growth From The Industrial Production Recovery. From The Point Of The Labour Market, A Strong Recovery Trend Is Obvious. 1-7 Month 2.117 Million Non-Farm Jobs Were Created, And The Best Performance In Recent 10 Years.

Represented By 3 D Printing, Robot Intelligent Manufacturing Technology, As Well As The Shale Gas Revolution Brought About By The Energy Cost Reduction, Has Made The United States Manufacturing A Structural Recovery. 2006-2010, The United States As A Whole Energy Costs Fell By 11%, Economists At The IMF, Based On The Input-Output Table, Measure Every Save 10% Energy Costs, Will Help The Gross Margin Rose 10%, Primary Metal Manufacturing Chemical Industry Gross Profit Growth Of 4%.

Compared To The Same Period, The Main Problems Faced By Countries Such As Europe And Japan, By Contrast, Including An Aging Population, High Energy Cost, Innovation Ability Is Insufficient. Media Reports, In The Past 20 Years, The Day Is Almost None Of The New Technology Oriented World 500 Strong Enterprises, One Of The Star Is ZARA And Uniqlo Such Consumer Goods Companies, Also Are Numbered, And The United States Has Led To The Entire IT Innovation And Biological Medicine And Other Industries.

, In Other Words, The United States Because Of QE And Avoid Large Financial Institutions Collapse, Though There Is A Moral Dilemma Too Big To Fail, But The Aim Of QE Is To Lower Long-Term Interest Rates And Boost Asset Prices, As Well As Supplemented By Technological Progress (U.S.) Or Dividend (China) Population And System.

Though, The Current U.S. Economy Faces A Slow Aging Population Structure And The Technical Innovation Of Structural Problems, China Also Faces Potential Growth Rate Decline, But Both Countries Began To Their Slow Growth In The New Normal. This Point, Is Also Facing Recession, Is The Rate Of Inflation Headache’S Day States Have To Think About, Economic Growth, Comes Not From Printing Money, But To Innovation And Industrial Upgrading.

Higher Interest Rates Into The Normalization Of Vision Return To Strong Dollar?

According To The Exit Of QE Steps, The Dollar Has Begun To Raise Interest Rates Into The Normalization Of Vision, And The Euro Continues To Accelerate Money Under Deflation Crisis, Take More Monetary Easing, While The Yen Consumption Tax Increases After-Tax An Economic Slowdown, A New Round Of Monetary Easing Is Faced With Rising. Dollars An Increasingly Distinct, The U.S. Economy Began To Show A Tendency Of Increasing, The Cyclical Economic Crisis After The United States The Necessity Of Spiral Growth.

The Euro Zone And The Middle East Oil Due To The Success Of The Shale Oil To A Falling Trend, Dollars Are By The Euro Zone Has Long-Term Change Negative Interest Rates To The United States. Japanese Institutional Investors Are Aware Of The Japan-American Interest Margin Expansion, Is Increasing The National Debt Investment In The United States.

Such Inflows Are Supportive For Us Treasuries Market. Result Is Under The Background Of The Dollar Interest Rate Hike Expectations, The Rise In Long-Term Interest Rates Are Also Increasingly Slow Start, Help The U.S. Market Stability. And Outside Of The United States Dollar Foreign Exchange Market, As The Federal Reserve Meeting Considered Interest Rate Expectations, Raising Interest Rates Have Been Near, Buying Dollars Of Dilation Operation. Focusing On The Market Is Conducive To Their Own Side, According To His Need To Explain Information. Can Say This Optimism Is Expanding From The United States To The United States, Has Brought The Global Dollar And Stock Market Strong.

After Entering The Second Half Of 2014, Emerging Economies Are Also Stable. Last Year, Around The United States Out Of QE Monetary Easing Expected To Strengthen, Emerging Market Currencies And Stock Prices In The Whole Dropped Significantly And Inflation. And In The Year To September, Most Emerging Market Currencies Against The Us Dollar Weakness, But Is Not Particularly Worried Capital Outflows. The Fed Chairman Yellen Will Focus On Economic Indicators In The United States, At The Same Time Gradually To Monetary Policy Exit QE To Make $Normalization.

This Round Of Dollars Money Flowing Into The United States, Also Suggests That The World Economy Is Still Dependent On The United States. Not Only Is Europe, Japan’S Dependence On The United States, The Emerging Economies Of The World’S Economic Slowdown Is Also Very Obvious. This Tells People That There Is No Denying That It Is Because The Most Parts Of The World Have, The Phenomenon Of The Entity Economic Stagnation Or Slow Progress, The Global Capital Surplus To Appear.

In The International Commodity Market, The Most Obvious Of Crude Oil And Gold Market Is Declining Tendency. Reason Is That The Dollar Lead To Dollar-Denominated Crude Oil And Gold, Give A Person The Feeling More And More Expensive On The Global Oil Market, The United States To Reduce Imports, Their Production Of Shale Oil Had A Great Influence On The International Market, But Also Because The Deflation Is Not Stopped, Coupled With The World’S Second Largest Economy, China’S Industrial Growth In August Fell To Nearly Six-Year Lows, Investment Also Dropped Obviously, Consumption Lower Than Expected, Suggests That China’S Economic Downward Pressure Is Aggravating, In The Third Quarter GDP Growth Could Fall To Nearly 7%.

Look At Japan’S Third Largest Economy, The Gap Between The Stock And The Real Economy Is Increasingly Obvious. This Is Because The Proceeds To Expand Global Enterprise And Stagnation Of The Domestic Demand And Subcontracting Model Of Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises Exist In Sharp Contrast, It Means Increase Yield Of Global Companies Are Hesitant About Japan’S Domestic Investment In Equipment And Raise, Orders, Economy Shrunk.


The World’S Largest Economies, The United States? Research Analysis Thought For Sure: QE To Quit After The Us Economy Is Really No Problem? There Were No Answer. Even The Us Economy Now In Recovery, The Real Concern About The Long-Stalled Said Still Cannot Eliminate, Even Though The United States For More Than 200 Years After Every Economic Crisis Are Facing A New Round Of Spiral Rebound, But The Global Financial Crisis Is Unprecedented In The World For The First Time.

If The Financial Crisis Damage Are Leading The Market In The Real Economy, So The Risk Of Asset Bubbles Will Also Be Increased Accordingly. On September 17, The International Monetary Fund Warned: Investors For The Evaluation Of Investment Risk Is Too Small, Need To Pay Attention To When Financial Normalization, The Fed’S Exit Road, QE, Normalization Of Dollars Back To The Way, How Long, When Normal On The Road? All Of This Is Unknown. Estimated To Market Stability Factors Behind Pay More Attention To The Global Financial Market Variables Still Exist.

Deserve Special Analysis Of The Research Is: In September Since More Than A Month Before And After The Dollar Against A Basket Of International Currency Strong Degree Of Effective Exchange Rate Rise To 1.9%, While The Yuan Against The Dollar Remained In 6.145:1 (Recent Changes Less Than 0.10%), Which Means That The Yuan Is Not A International Currency, Under No Obligation To Float With The International Market, Will Not Generate The Yen And Dollar That 4.5% Of The Erd, Unlike Other International Currencies, Which Have Obvious Big Difference Of Exchange Rate; If Dollar Against A Basket Of International Currency Has Risen 1.9%, According To The Global Financial Market Mechanism To Float, Then RMB Devaluation In More Than 3% At Least; Yuan Is Not A International Currency, Not Self Regulation Mechanism Of Global Currency Function – There Are Other Package Of The International Monetary Integration, Trade And Exchange It To Trade Payment Currency Such As The Generation Gap Can’T Reconcile, Of Course, Also Do Not Need According To The Market Economy Status Of International Free Floating Exchange Rate, Freely Convertible Currency, The Yuan Has Not Set Up With The Freedom Of The International Monetary Exchange Rate Change Mechanism, As The People’S Bank Of China In The Past Are Effectively Controls The Yuan Against A Broad Basket Of International Currency Exchange Rate Changes. This Is The World’S Second Largest Economy Of The Fundamental Difference Between RMB And All International Currency, Is Also The Chinese Go Internationalization, The Trend Of The International Monetary, The Only Way For Market-Oriented Reform.

Low Back And Forth Constantly Gold Fell First Do More Next Week

Gold Cast The Net On September 28, Low Back And Forth Patterns In Gold Whole Last Week, Don’T Break The Low Is Not High. Recently Started Up The Art Direction, Which Means To A Large Extent On The Prices, Because Encountered Buying At The Same Time, There Will Be A Certain Degree Of Rebound, Also Is Kept Low, Back And Forth Until Spend Buying.

The Price Of Gold Market Will Usher In Two Big Events, Next Week, Respectively, On Thursday (Oct. 2) Of The European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision And On Friday, October 3) Of The United States In September Non-Farm Data.


This Week Market Sentiment Factor For Gold Support Is Limited. Russia And Ukraine After 30 Km Buffer Agreement Last Week, The Overall Situation To A Thaw, Russia Also For The First Time In Anti-War Demonstrations. But It’S Still Not Harmonious Sound Coming From, For Example, The Eastern Armed For The Presidential Election. The U.S. Air Force Continue Down The IS In Iraq And Syria, IS Also Threatened To Fight Back, And Give Us Help Islamic Countries.

Capital Markets, The Us Stock Market Plunged Thursday, Affects The Asia-Pacific And European Markets. It Once Helped Gold Prices Since The 1200 Rally Near The Above, But The Gold In The 1230 A Line Also Encountered Strong Resistance. With Some Analysts Speculated The Bubble Will Burst? . On Friday (Sept. 28) The U.S. Stock Market By The GDP Data Correction, Afternoon To Still Need To Observe.

The Spot Gold From Day Chart, Charging Slightly Under The Lead Of Small Yang Yesterday, Before The Gold With A Pillars Under Lead Longer, Spot Gold In General Is No Doubt With A Good Composition, Buying Gradually Emerged, MA5 Effect Is Still Very Strong, However, Bedding Bag More Than Single And Above Refers To The Strength Of The Rebound On Linear Space, But Evidence Of Warming, Line Began To Slowly. Spot Gold Small Cycle Cloth Forest Began To Shrink Mouth, Indicators Also Go Well.

Together, Today’S Gold Prices Last Week Opened The Lost On Indicators, Mainly To Repair, However, Cooperate Contour Line, Good Ingredients, Next Week Is To Fell To Do More Than Give Priority To.

When The Monetary Expansion Policy Come To An End

When The Financial Crisis Of The Trauma Repair, Next To Face Is How To Solve The Problem Of The Side Effects Of Drugs.

The Fed And The Bank Of England In The Past Five Years, Successfully Completed By Credit Expansion To Save The Purpose Of The Financial System. At The Same Time, Their Peers – The European Central Bank (Microblogging) And The Bank Of Japan Has Not Completed The Goal, At Least When It Comes To Stimulate Economic Growth After The Lackluster Performance Also.

But First, Have Faced Not Seen In The History Test. At Present, The World’S Major Central Banks In The Face Of Such Torture: What Kind Of Loan Growth Is Tolerated In The Future? What Kind Of Quantitative Easing Efforts To Maintain Hard-Won Economic Growth? The Pay Is Necessary?

The Above Problems, In The Absence Of Historical Data And Model, Obviously Is A Difficult Problem.

We Suppose, Outstanding Debt Interest Rates Of About 4.5% In The United States (Admittedly, There Are A Little May Be Shadow Debt). So From The Perspective Of Liquidation, The Fed’S Top Must Hope That The Future Credit Expansion, Can Achieve At Least 4.5% A Year, This Is Just To Prevent The Existing Debt Chain, Not Break Off In The Credit Crunch Situation. In Other Words, The Necessary Of Debt And Equity Fundraising, Annual Interest Costs To Cover The Past.

How Are They Doing? Combing Credit Growth Discipline Can Be Found In The Past Few Quarters. U.S. Non-Financial Private Credit Scale (Including Private Firms, Households And Housing Mortgage), Public Debt (Government Bonds), As Well As The Financial Credit Balance Approach Is Close To $58 Trillion, In The Past Five Years, The Total Debt Scale Expansion, At The Rate Of 2% Per Year On Average And 3.5% Growth In The Last 12 Months

In Short, If The Demand For Credit Must Expand At An Annual Rate Of 4.5%, The Private And Public Sector Must Not Together Generate Additional Revenues Of About $2.5 Trillion A Year, To Compensate Debt Interest. If The Goal Is To The United States, It Probably Needs, Nominal GDP Growth In The United States At Least Up To 4.5%. And From Now, The U.S. Economy Struggling To 2% Of GDP Growth (In View Of The Low Rate Of Inflation, This Is Almost The Same Number And Nominal GDP).

Credit Creation As The Basis Of The Financial Sector, Is Vital For Our Growth. Without Him, The Economic And Social Growth Down To A Stagnant Or Shrinking. At The Same Time, The Credit Growth, And The Relationship Between It And The Sales Revenue Is Also Very Important.

But Now Another Test Is Approaching. Without A Central Bankers Know The Proper Production, The Relationship Between Prices And Interest Rates. Yellen Or Carney Or Drudge, Kuroda, They Are Careful Use Of Interest Rate Policy, In Order To Avoid Short Pleasure, Long Lament Led To The Collapse Of Credit.

But As A General Rule, In Terms Of Financial Asset Returns (Relative Risk) Must Be High Enough. But Look From The Current Situation, Whether The Level Of The Forward Curve Or Cash Loan At A Strange Level Returns. This Level Usually Does Not Lead To Economic Growth. And If, The Future Of The U.S. Credit Growth Has Remained At 2.5% Now, So After 2017, We May Face Many Tests And Problems.

From The Perspective Of The Above Observation. Since 2008, When The Crisis Broke Out, The Global Monetary Experiment Still Cannot End Smoothly. Although The Short-Term Or In The Medium Term, The Existing Monetary Policy Can Reassure Markets And Support The Growth Of Asset Prices, And Promote Economic Growth (Although This Is A Level Below The History). But In The Long Run, The Global Economic Growth Depends On Investment And The Animal Spirits Of Capitalism In The Recovery, While The Latter Is The Condition Of Does Not Exist. This Is A Fact Of Iron.

No Matter What The Federal Reserve Act Financial Markets May Will Have Come Under The Waves

No Matter What The Fed Tonight Make Policy Decisions, Financial Markets Still Likely Storm, The Reason Is That Wall Street Investment Bank For The Opening Time To Normalize The Fed’S Interest Rate Policy Has Significant Differences.

For Days, For The High-Profile Federal Reserve (FED) Monetary Policy Meeting, People Gradually Accepted The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) May Make A Hawkish Shift Expectations After The Statement, The FED May Give Up Quite A Long Period Of Time (Keep Interest Rates Near Zero).


According To The Survey, The Local Mainstream Media In 37 Respondents, More Than 4 Into The Fed Is Expected To Give Up The Wording.

CRT Capital, A Senior U.S. Treasury Strategist Ian Lyngen Said: The Essence Of This Does Not Mean That The Market Is Expected To Have Change, Can Identify A Risk Is That The Fed Will Slightly Hawkish Tendencies In A Statement, But The Vast Majority Of Investors Still Think That The Wording Of The ‘A Long Time Not To Make Changes.

Due To The Expected To Change Quickly, The Local And Global Stock Market Ups And Downs, And Bond Yields To Rise. Last Week, U.S. Stocks Posted Its Worst Weekly Performance Since August, Fell For The First Time For Six Weeks.

U.S. Stocks Rebounded Sharply On Tuesday, However, Because Of A Wall Street Journal Article To Strengthen The Fed Expectations May Maintain Their Position.

Market Strategist Believes That If The Fed This Time Really Do Nothing, Then The Dollar Will Blow, And U.S. Stocks Will Further Upward Slightly.

For Recent Financial Market Volatility, BlackRock (BlackRock) Economist Jeffrey Rosenberg Said, Although Potentially Statement Wording Effects May Have Been On The Market For Digestion, Made After The Expected Cash Market Volatility Relative To Shrink, But Investors May Be Ignored – October And December Of Monetary Policy In The Future Continue To, We Will Experience A Period Of Normalizing Policy Shift. For The Last Six Years Of Big Water, This Will Be A Very Significant Event.

Wall Street Investment Bank About Whether The Fed Would Give Up A Long Time To Language Differences, Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) Thinks That The Wording Will Be Kept, The Bank (Bank Of America) And JPMorgan Chase (JPMorgan) Wording Is Expected To Be Abandoned.

BMO Capital Markets (BMO Private Bank), Chief Investment Officer, Jack Ablin Said He Believes The Fed Words Won’T Change, But If The Fed Made The Opposite Decision, So In The Case Of The Dollar, The Interest Rate Sensitive And Commodity-Related Stocks May Take The Hit. In Addition, The Benefit From The Improvement Of Economic Data, The S&Amp;P 500 – Stock Index This Week’S Yield Is 0.5%, But Gold Has Been Suppressed.

Peter Boockvar Said Lindsey Group, Chief Market Strategist At The Federal Reserve To Describe The Wording Of The Job Market Is The Key, If Suggests Practical Constraints To Reduce The Job Market, So The Future Will Raise Interest Rates Earlier.

Economic Factors Geopolitical Risk Pressure The U.S. Stock Market Closed Higher This Month

On Friday (August 29) The U.S. Stock Market Closed Higher, The S&Amp;P 500 Hit A Record High, Official Thin Volume. All Week And Month U.S. Stocks Ended Higher. Most U.S. Economic Data, The Promoting Function Of The Stock Market Over The Geopolitical Factors Bring Pressure On The Stock Market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Rose 18.75 Points, To 17098.32 Points, Or 0.11%; The Standard &Amp; Poor’S 500 Index Rose 6.61 Points, To 2003.35, Up 0.33%; The Nasdaq Composite Index Rose 22.58 Points, To 4580.27 Points, Or 0.50%.


Fundamentals, The U.S. Government Report Said On Friday, The Americans To Buy A New Car And Other Retail Goods Less Influence, The United States In July Consumer Spending Fell For The First Time For The Last Six Months. Consumer Spending Fell A Bit Surprising: After Investigation For MW Of The Economists On Average Expect Seasonally Adjusted After Consumer Spending Will Increase By 0.1%.

Drop In Consumer Spending In July Showed The U.S. Economy Will Struggle To Keep The Momentum Of The Second Quarter GDP Growth Of 4.2%, Unless A Substantial Increase In Consumer Spending In August And September. July Is The First Month Of The Third Quarter.

Data, Barclays Will Be The United States In The Third Quarter GDP Growth Forecast From 2.7% To 2.2%. Goldman Sachs Will Be The Third Quarter GDP Growth Forecast From 3.3% To 3.1%, Due To The Sluggish Consumer Spending Data.

On Friday, Stock Earnings Scarce, The Only A Big Company Is A Big Discount Retailers Reported Lots (Big), The Company Announced The Second Quarter After Adjustment For 31 Cents Earnings Per Share, Market Expectations For 30 Cents. Revenue Of $1.2 Billion, In Line With Market Expectations.

Tesla TSLA) Announced To Reach A Deal With China Unicom, The Stock Rose To $270.60 In Early Trading On Friday, A Record High. Tesla Announced A Strategic Cooperation Agreement With China Unicom, And Will Be In 120 Cities Around The Country To Build 400 Destinations Charging Stations, Super Charging Stations In 20 Cities Construction At The Same Time.

Global Market Strategist At Jpmorgan Fund James Liu, Said U.S. Stocks Suffered Great Consumer Confidence Index, Investors May Be Released Next Week As Strong August Jobs Data.

The Strategist Also Warned That Not Read Too Much Into The Market On Friday, Because The Labor Day Many Traders Have Left. On Thursday, U.S. Stocks Comprehensive Trading Volume Has Been Reduced To The Lowest Annual Volume A Full Trading Day. On Tuesday We Will See People Really Think Of The Market.

The Euro Zone Is Looking Forward To A Comprehensive QE Is Coming Soon

The Latest In A Series Of Economic Data Showed That The Euro Zone Economic Recovery Prospects Are Grim.

The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi In September 24 Speech Information Released Pessimistic. Draghi Said The Unacceptably High Unemployment And Weak Credit Growth Is Likely To Contain The Euro Zone’S Economic Recovery. Geopolitical Situation Worse Could Hurt Business And Consumer Confidence.

At The Same Time, Due To Previous Face Huge Deflationary Pressures, The European Central Bank Has Said Will Remain Easing, And Already Released The First Round Of The Directional Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO).

But The First Round TLTRO Subscriptions For Much Less Than Expected. Market In The Economic Situation Is Not Good, And The Existing Stimulus Poor Judgment And Concern, Looking Forward To The Comprehensive Quantitative Easing (QE).

PMI Fell To Poor Recovery

Released On September 23, Markit Data Research Institutions, According To The Latest Euro-Zone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Initial Value In September. Markit, Points Out That Data Showed The Euro Zone’S Economic Recovery In September, Commercial Expansion Speed Of A New Low This Year.

Chinese Academy Of Social Sciences Institute Of European Dr Li Gang Said In An Interview With China Economic Times Reporter, Compared To A Halt Recession Of Surrounding Countries, Has Long Been A Core Euro-Zone Countries Such As Britain, Germany, To Be Able To Keep Growing, Situation Is Better. But The Eurozone As A Whole From The Point Of Quarterly Data, Growth Is Very Weak, Not Into The Signs Of Strong Growth.

According To The Latest Figures, The State Of France And Germany Were Not Very Optimistic. Markit, A Senior Economist At Jack Kennedy Argues That Continue To Weak September French Economic Performance, Service Industry Back Into Recession. Weak Demand Continue To Drag Down The French Private Sector Expansion, Forcing Firms To Reduce The Price For New Orders. For Germany, Markit Economist Commented That At The End Of The Third Quarter, The German Economy Have Been Mixed. Benefit From The Services Sector To Accelerate The Expansion Of The Private Sector As A Whole, Faster Than The Average Growth Slowing Growth For The Fourth Straight Month Of New Orders, However, And The Year Low, According To The Country’S Recent Economic Activity May Be Slowing.

The Latest German IFO Business Climate Index Is Unexpectedly Fell, German Commercial Bank That Weak IFO Index This Month Will Push The European Central Bank’S QE Policy. Ing Is Simply Said, Which Should Make Germany In Protest Against The Silence On The European Central Bank Asset Purchases.

All Along, The German Central Bank Is The Vanguard Against Massive Quantitative Easing. Some Analysts Say The Current Delicate Situation Is Likely To Change Its Position In Germany.


But Li Gang Thinks, In Germany Under The Condition Of Their Own Economic Problems, To Launch The QE May Be More Prudent.

Inflation Pressure, Less Tool

For The European Central Bank, Launch Comprehensive QE Is Indeed A Recent A Cliche Topic, Only Now Seems To Become More Clear Possibility. Because The European Central Bank Is Facing Increasing Pressure, And The Response Is More Limited.

First Of All, Comprehensive Economic Growth Stagnated Cloud On The Euro Zone, Previous Negative Inflation Has The European Central Bank Is Very Embarrassed. Eurostat Data Show That The Eurozone Inflation At 0.4% In August, The Outside World Are Increasingly Worried About The Eurozone As A Whole Into Deflation Could Make The Weak Economy Much More Difficult To Return To Health.

Therefore, Draghi Said On September 24, Will Always Maintain Easing, Until The Realization Of Just Under 2% Inflation Target, And Will Use All Available Tools To Do Our Utmost To Defend The Euro.

Before This, The European Central Bank Has Just Announced The ECB’S Repo Rate From 0.15% To 0.15%, And The Commercial Banks In The European Central Bank Deposit Interest Rates To 0.2%.

Li Gang Argues That The European Central Bank Interest Rate Lever Has Used Limit. Because Of Low Interest Rates Have Been Reduced To A While Ago It Seems The Effect Is Limited, And Interest Rate Policy To Stimulate The Weakness In The Euro Zone, The Next Step Of The European Central Bank Will Not Simply Use Interest Rate Leverage, May Use A Variety Of Combination Of Monetary Policy, Such As Long-Term Refinancing Operation, To Further Release Liquidity To The Banks, To Stimulate Their Loans To Households And Small Businesses.

QE Is TLTRO After?

It Is Thought That The European Central Bank’S Comprehensive QE Has Entered The Countdown Stage. There Are Also Some Cautious View.

Li Gang Said That If The European Central Bank To Buy Bonds, There Are Risks, An Agreement Between The Countries More Difficult, QE May In The Short Term Has Not Implemented.

At Least For Now, Mr Draghi Will Be Fully QE Still Hidden And Not Hair, The Hands Of The Ace Is Still TLTRO.

On September 18, However, In The First Round Of The TLTRO Subscribe, The 382 Accord With Financial Subscribe TLTRO Low-Interest Loans Qualifications Only 255 Banks To Participate In, The Euro Zone Banks Absorb Only A Total Of 400 Billion Euros 400 Billion Euros, The Result Is Not Ideal.

Now Predicted TLTRO Impact On The Euro Zone Economy Is Still Too Early. Draghi Said That Should Be Observed In December’S Second Round Of TLTRO Results To Make A Comprehensive Evaluation.

Previously, Credit Agricole Thinks, The Stability Of The Euro Zone’S Business Confidence, Will Be For A Period Of Time To Help The ECB TLTRO Measures Such As Smoothly Until The Eurozone Inflation Rebound. But Any Downside Accident Will Only Deepen The Sooner The European Central Bank Offering A Quantitative Easing? Den QE? The Strong Expectations Of Snow Measures.

Unfortunately, The Situation Appears To Be The Latter.

The Fed’S Intentions Can Have Your Cake And Eat It?

This Week’S Two Major Focus Is The Us GDP Data And Many Fed Officials Speaking, Because This Week The Fed Many Heavyweight Intensive Speech, The Market Is Trying To Find The Future Monetary Policy.

Have Speech Till Now, The Fed Seems To Be In A Dilemma, The Reasons Behind The $Is Nothing But An Exceptionally Strong Performance May Not Be Conducive To The U.S. Inflation Picks Up, At The Same Time It Also Restrain The Profits Of Multinational Companies In The United States, Is Not Conducive To Solve The Problem Of Employment And Wage These Two, It Has Also Led To The Federal Reserve Official Very Rare Comment Directly On The Dollar; But On The Other Hand, The Federal Reserve At Key Points In The Exit, And Were Afraid To Let Expectations For Higher Interest Rates To Cool Down, Because It Can Lead To Market The Rise In The Cost Of Financing, And Then Reverse The Economic Growth In The United States.

Yellen, Chairman Of The Federal Reserve On Wednesday Announced The Exit Strategy Details, Keep The Original Rate Unchanged Forward Guidance. The Federal Reserve Has Said That After The First Stop Of Maturing Bonds. The Federal Funds Rate Will Still Be Fed To Convey The Main Monetary Policy Interest Rates. When The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time, Will Raise The Federal Funds Rate Target Range.

However, From The Federal Reserve Interest Rates Expected Lattice Figure, Policymakers Will Interest Rates Expected By The End Of 2015 The Median Increase To 1.375%, Significantly Higher Than Expected 1.125% In June. This Suggests That The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Or In Advance.

But On Monday, The New York Fed President William Dudley Has Delivered A Speech, He Said In The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time Point In Time, The Interest Rate Predictive Guidance Is Not Unbreakable Commitments, And Will Continue For A Long Period Of Time To Maintain Loose Policy.

He Also Said That People Should Not Overestimate The Fed’S Lattice Figure, The Committee On The Expectations Of Lattice Figure Does Not Capture The Fed Officials On The Uncertainty.

Market Analysts Pointed Out That In Quite Some Time Back, U.S. Economic Growth Will Remain At The Low Level Of Just Over 2%, And In The Past 12 Months The Average Interest Rate Of Mortgage Market Conditions Can Also See That The State Of The Us Economic Growth And Create New Employment Posts Is Not Enough To Push The Us Treasury Yields Continued To Be Strong, It Also Means That The Level Of Real GDP Growth Is Difficult To An Average Of More Than 2.5%, This Is Far Worse Than The 3.5% Previously Expected.

Fed By Tough Questions And, In Its Monetary Tightening Cycle At The Same Time, It Is As High As $4.2 Trillion Of Assets Should Be Disposed Of. Once The Demand For Disposal, In What Progress And When To Get Treatment.

The Fed Officials Take Turns On The Stage Verbal Intervention Have Different Tone

The New York Fed President William Dudley Said On Monday, The Dollar Exchange Rate Significantly Stronger May Prevent The Federal Reserve To Stimulate Growth, Promote The Inflation.

He Said: If The Dollar Is Very Much, Will Cause Influence On Economic Growth. It’S A Very Rare Fed Officials Comment Directly On The Dollar.

As Investors Think The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates In The Middle Of 2015, Ending Nearly Zero Interest Rates Since December 2008, The Dollar Index Last Week For The Tenth Consecutive Weeks.

Dudley Said: Our Performance Will Be Worse, Foreign Trade Exports, Imports To Increase, If The Dollar To Rise Sharply, Will Keep Inflation In Check. So We Double Goal Will Be Harder To Reach. So, Clearly We Should Consider It.

Minneapolis FED Chairman Ke Xue La Ke (Narayana Kocherlakota) Local Time On Monday, September 22) Warned That At The Time Of Inflation Below The 2% Target, The Federal Reserve (FED) To Raise Interest Rates Should Be Very Careful, Because To Do So May Jeopardize The Credibility Of The Federal Reserve, And Inflation Expectations.

Ke Xue Ke Tower In Michigan Marquette County Economic Club Said In A Speech: I Think, To Start Raising Interest Rates, We Should Be Very Careful, Because We Want To Ensure That Inflation Would Go In 2% Back On Track.

The St. Louis Fed President Bullard (James Bullard) On Tuesday (September 23), Said He Expected The Federal Reserve (Fed) Will Start Raising Interest Rates In The First Quarter Of 2015.

Brad Said To Support The Fed Reserve In Policy Statement For Quite Some Time To Raise Interest Rates To Guide, He Told The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates For The First Time In The First Quarter Next Year’S Expected There Are Still Possible.

Rudd Said Concerns If The Fed Tightening Were Too Slow, Too Machinery, May Form An Asset Bubble.

Brad Is Expected, As The U.S. Economy Gradually Recover Kinetic Energy, The United States In The Second Half And GDP Growth In 2015 Might Be More Than 3%.

ForexLive Analyst Ryan Littlestone Talk To Brad’S Comment: As We Have Said, The Market Is Eager To Wait For The Fed’S Point Of View, The Meeting Will Be In October Market Will Raise Interest Rates Included In The Price Of Expectations.

Securities Brokerage TJM Institutional Analyst Jim Iuorio Said, I Think They Try To More Clear Message To The Market. Officials Of The Speech Will Be The Focus Of The Financial Markets

Which The Economist David Robin Pointed Out That The Market Participants Urgently Waiting For Clarity And Credibility, They Give The Signal Is Differ, Increases The Rhythm And Some Move, The Fed Two-Way Escorting, And Predicted The Market Would Have Difficulty In Judging.

Rhino Trading Partners, The Economist Michael Block That The Fed Has Long Been The Doves Stand In The Foreseeable Future, This Also Gives His Reasons For The U.S. Stock And Bond Markets.

The Fed Did Not Dare To Let Expectations For Higher Interest Rates Down Cold

But The Fed Also Can’T Let The Market To The Fed’S Interest Rate Hike Expectations Cooled Down, Once So When The Fed Is Ready To Quit In The Past Six Years Buy Trillions Of Dollars In Bonds, Treasury Demand Any Weakness Could Lead To Government, Business And Consumer Borrowing Costs Soared. This Kind Of Condition, In Turn, Could Reverse The Economic Growth In The United States.

While The Fed Raising Interest Rates Next Year Expected Result In Us Treasury Bonds Fell This Month, But The Dollar Against The Currencies Its Highest Level Since 2010. This Help Most Foreign Treasury Holders To Realize The Profit, These Foreign Institutions Have Us Treasuries Totaled $6 Trillion.

Bloomberg Summary Data Show That In The First Eight Months Of This Year Rose 4.45%, After The United States National Debt Is Down 1.1% Since September, The Biggest Monthly Drop For The Year To Date.

Dollar Rally So Fast, For Their Currencies To The Euro, Sterling And The Yen Overseas Investors, U.S. Treasury Bonds Was The Best Performance In The Quarter Sovereign Debt In The Developed Countries.

With The Federal Reserve’S Exit From Quantitative Easing (QE) And Ready To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time Since 2006, America’S Largest Foreign Creditor Continued Demand For U.S. Debt Is The Key To Control The Cost Of Financing In The United States.

Us Treasury Bonds For Global Sovereign Debt Yields Highest Premiums For Seven Years, A Stronger Dollar Or Help To Avoid Overseas Investors Aggressively To Evacuate, Their Withdrawals Would Trigger A $12.2 Trillion Treasury Market Turmoil.


Although The U.S. Government Debt Is Down 0.45% Since June, But Converted Into Euros, Their Returns Of 6.7% (Including Interest). Bloomberg Summary Data Show That The Over All The Eurozone Bonds Rose In Developed Countries, Especially German Debt Almost Four Times As Much As 1.7%.

In Local Currency For The Investors, The Us Treasury Bonds Even Higher Returns, With The Dollar Against The Yen Surged To A Six-Year High, They Return On Treasury Bonds Reached 7.6%, The Japanese Currency Is Dwarfed By The 0.2% Return On The Bond. Investors In The UK, Switzerland And Canada Investment In Us Treasury Yields May Also Be Higher Than Held Their Debt.

As The Bank Of Japan’S Monthly Purchase 7 Trillion Yen Bonds To Support Economic Growth, The European Central Bank To Prevent Deflation Toward The Quantitative Easing Policy Further, More The Japanese Yen And The Euro Into The Possibility Of Financial Markets Has Prompted Forecasters Dollar Is Expected To Rise Further.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management (Goldman Sachs Asset Managemen) Asia Pacific Fixed Income At Philip Moffitt Says: Under The Background Of The Rising Dollar, Holdings Of U.S. Treasury Bonds Would Allow You To Get A Relatively High Profits, To Absorb Capital Of The United States.

DoubleLine Capital LP Co-Founder And Chief Investment Officer, Said Jeffrey Gundlach, Holdings Of Dollar Debt Is Meaningless, A Rising Dollar Attracted Overseas Buyers To Buy Us Treasuries. He Manages $52 Billion In Assets.

Interpretation Of The Fed’S Resolution Partial Hawkish Five Large Signal

Beijing Time On Thursday, September 18, At The Federal Reserve (FED) Resolution, The Federal Reserve Cut QE $10 Billion To $150 / Month, There Is No Accident; Cut 2014-2016 GDP And CPI Inflation Expectations. Yellen Conference Also Said That The Federal Reserve Interest Rate Forward Guidance In A Long Time Before – Not So Satisfied With The Expression Of Some Investment Banks Expected To Remove The Word.

Continue To Tai Chi Yellen Rhetoric And Seems More Look Pale Before The Economic Forecast, Why Interpretation Hawks Prevail Instead? – After The Fed’S Decision, The Dollar From A 14-Month High Rise To More Than Four Years (2010 Years) Since July High, At The Beginning Of Gold Is More Close To The Lowest Level.


Huitong Financial For You To Come To The Conclusion That The Five Hawkish Signals Of The Fed’S Decision, As Follows:

1 Expansion Rate Camps – 17 Members Of The Committee, The Number Of Support For The First Time In 2015 Years Raising Interest Rates Before The June (Resolution) Of 12 To 14.

2 Lattice Figure, According To The Committee Raised Interest Rates Expected In The Next Two Values – Interest Rate At The End Of 2015 To Predict The Median Value Of 1.375%, Than The Further Raised Its Forecast Of 1.25% In June, The Expected Value Is Reached 2.875% By The End Of 2016, Compared With The Previous Repair On 37.5 Basis Points, While The Predicted Value Of The Newly Released At The End Of 2017 At 3.75%. This Is Without A Doubt The Fed Will Lead The Future Into A Powerful Policy Tightening Fast Channel Signal.

3 More Accurate Rate Expectations – The Fed To The Precision Of Prediction Interval Increases In Interest Rates 12.5 Basis Points, Or One Percent Of One 8, Instead Of The Previous 25 Basis Points. This Highlights The Fed Might More Intensification Of Interest Rate Policy Fine-Tuning Measures.

4 Job Market Is King – Although The Committee For The United States In The Medium Term GDP Growth And Inflation Expectations Revised Down Slightly, But Also Built For The 2014-2016, The Unemployment Rate Is Expected Range, Hinted That The Fed Is A Little More Than In June On Labor Market Situation.

Safflower 5 Greenery Line – The European Central Bank, The Bank Of Japan, The People’S Bank Of China In The Near Future Is Still In The Process Of Easing, In Contrast, The Federal Reserve Cut QE And Raising Interest Rates Expected Camp, Make The Fed’S Tightening Policy Stance Somewhat Stand Out In A Crowd.

Gold And Silver Range Correction Europe ‘

Technology Review: Early Evaluation, We Pointed Out That Gold And Silver Prices Long Or Take A Correction, Interval Callback, The Forecast Was Consistent With The Market Trend Of The Morning. The Dish: The Precious Metals Market Failed To Continue To Rebound In The Morning, But In The Range Of A Short-Term Adjustment, Considering The Gold Had Been Gained For 3 Days, Plus The Adjacent Closed Over The Weekend, So The Market Should Be In The Range Of High Small Stabilized. International Gold Prices Continue To Around $1288 In The Morning Line, International Silver Price Is $19.54 The Float Line Up And Down. The Dollar Index Recorded Climbed To 82.5 From 82.4, The Euro Quotation Record $1.32. Because Of Concerns About Ukraine Situation Worsens, Asian Stock Markets Fell In Early Trading Opened, With The Nikkei Index Fell About 0.5%, The Shanghai And Shenzhen Index Opened Slightly Downward, Afternoon Rebound Again. Europe Express The Ukrainian Government Released Within The Territory Of The Russian Army In Ukraine Images, Image Display, About 1000 Armed Convoy From The Ukraine Border Into The Territory Of Eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian Prime Minister Polo Draws To Cancel The Visit To Turkey, Held An Emergency Security Meeting. At Present, The United States And The European Union Is Considering Sanctions Against Russia. In Eastern Ukraine Tension Or Make The European Stock Market Slightly Confined In The Afternoon, At The Same Time, The Price Of Gold And Silver Form The Support. But The Current Market Bulls Have Dissipated, Gold And Silver Prices Or Be Interval Before Closing, Bounce Back After Last Night, Bull Were Slightly. Remind Of Finance And Economics (Beijing Time) 5:00 PM – The August Consumer Price Index (CPI Annual Rate, Growth Of 0.4% In July And August, Or Around 0.5%. Technical Analysis Gold And Silver Prices Posted A Long End In Yin Candle, And Began In Red – Day Moving Average, According To A Callback, And RSI Recorded Slightly Downward, The Bulls Have Dissipated. Gold And Silver Prices Or Went On A Search Range, The Median Line Around Each Interval Consolidated Near $1288 And $19.5. On The Support And Resistance Levels, May Refer To The Following Data Gold ($) Silver ($) Key Support Level 1285.7 1285.7 Days Key Support Level 2 Of 1278.6 19.36 Days Key The First Resistance At 1294.6 19.65 Days Key Resistance At 1300.7 19.81 2 Days Short Term Investment Support Level 1200.6 18.06 Short Term Investment Big Resistance At 1400.8 25.60 Gold Candle, Yin And Yang Are Recorded Brin Orbit Range Narrowed, And The Midline Slightly Lower, The Price Of Gold In The Afternoon Or May Continue To Dip Slightly, Suggestions For The Reference Line For $1288, Below Or Down To $1286, Continued To Run Steady Or Sideways. Silver Candle, Yin And Yang Are Recorded Brin Narrowed Orbit, According To The Market Trading, Short Line MACD Recorded Short Weak, Silver Prices Or Hitting A Near $19.5 In The Afternoon, Whole Or Sideways.

Golden Week In September To Meet Super Focused On Three Big Events

On Monday (Sept. 15) And The City In Early Trading, International Spot Gold Prices Traded At $1228.47, Gold Have Lower Recently, Greatly Again Test $1200, Two Strong Data On Friday, The United States Is Also The Main Reason Of The Continued Suppression Of Gold, Almost Every Day This Week Will Have A Big Data And Events, Most Volatile Week Is Coming In September. This Will Be The Non-Agricultural Data Super Weeks Later, On September The Second Week.

In August Retail Sellers Costs Rise, Suggesting To Improve Gasoline Prices And Employment Growth Is Likely To Encourage The American Consumer Open Wallet To Consume, At The Same Time, In July Data Also Show That Consumer Spending The Summer.

The United States, According To The Specific Data On August Retail Sales Rate Rose To 0.6%, As Expected, Up 0.3% In July By Flat Correction For; Core Retail Sales In August Month Rate Rise Held Steady At 0.3%, Also, As Expected, From Rose 0.1% To 0.3% In July.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rose To More Than One Years In September, Because Consumers More Confident About The Future One Year Of The American Economy.

Specific Data Show, The United States In September At The University Of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Rose To 84.6, Record Since July 2013, Rose To 83.3 At The Meeting, In August A Value Of 82.5.

Focusing On A: This Week The Fed’S Interest Rate Decisions

Industry Renowned Analysts Have Said Recently, The Federal Reserve In Next Week’S Policy Meeting Resolution Or Revealed That Previously Made At The End Of The Current Quantitative Easing (QE) Bond Buying Action After Quite Some Time To Keep Interest Rates Meet On Monday Near Zero Wording Will No Longer Continue, And This Will Be For Its Later In June 2015 When Paving The Way To Raise Interest Rates For The First Time.

This Week The Focus 2: Scottish Referendum

On September 15 To 19 In The Week, Focus On Beijing Time On Thursday (Sept. 18) – [September 18, Scottish Independence Referendum Held A Formal 】

Focus On Two: This Week The Us Inflation Data

U.S. Producer Prices In August Month Rate Will Be Announced On Tuesday Beijing Time Manner, Then The Eight Chinese Rose After The CPI Month Rate Will Be Announced On Wednesday (Beijing Time) 20:30, Minneapolis Of The Federal Reserve (Fed) Officials, Indianapolis Fed Chairman Ke Xue Ke Tower Said Earlier This Month, The United States Need More Inflation.

This Picture Sound The Death Knell For The European Allies

Perhaps Many European Locals And Global Economists Will Discuss This Problem, The European Countries A Union Is Why? Give Up The Weakening Of Sovereignty, The Concentration Of Power, Decision-Making Say, What The Purpose Of These Efforts?

Of Course, The Most Important Part Of The Answer Is Free Trade. Eu Citizens Can Enjoy The Member States Of The Best Products, Such As Germany’S Volkswagen And Greek Yogurt Production, And To Maximize The Rights And Interests Of All People.

These Sounds Beautiful, In Addition To The Following This Has In The Past Few Decades The Eu Internal Trade Data Chart Shows The Plight:

Within The Eu Trade Share Drop Accelerated In Recent Years, Especially In Recent 4 Years, Fell To The Level Before The Eu Set Up, The Problem And Echo In People’S Mind: This Is For The Sake Of What?

Above Present Within The European Union And The Eurozone Member Countries Export Accounts For The Whole Export Quotas, The Change Of The Two Lines In The Graph Covers In The Eu And The Euro Member Countries In And Out Of The Change. Only After New Members To Join Will Be Included In The Data Statistics.

Eu Member States Share Of The Export Trade Has Experienced Steady Growth In The Early 1980, In Fact, The Proportion Of The Period Increased By 8%, But In The Mid – 90 – S Until The First Decade Of This Century, Data Stalled, And For The Past Four Years, Data Appeared Sharp Decline, Suggest That The Global Trade Partner In The Eu Member States Play An Increasingly Important In The Field Of Trade.

It Is Interesting To Note That Data Also Shows The Trade Pattern In The Euro Area Is Roughly Also Took A Similar Path. This Suggests That The Euro’S Circulation Coin Has Not Effectively Promote The Trade Between The Eurozone Member States.

If The Eu Policy Makers Can’T Keep The Members Of A Customs Union Work, The Vulnerability Of The Eu Will Be Unbounded. Perhaps The Euro In Recent Not Because Investors See The European Central Bank (ECB) Will Ease Monetary Policy Risk, But Realize The Euro Has Actually Life Soon Too.

Double Fed Bond Market See Eagle Stock Doves


The Much-Anticipated Fed Interest Rate Decision On Thursday Morning In Beijing Time To Keep. The Federal Reserve To Continue For Quite A Long Time, Allows Investors To Raise Interest Rates Of The Tension Eased, Mild U.S. Stocks Higher. But More Accurate And Aggressive Interest-Rate Forecasts That The Fed Will Accelerate Rate Normalization Triggered Selling Bonds, Treasury Yields Higher Benefit.

The Fed Kept The Federal Funds Rate Target Unchanged 0 ~ 0.25%; Cut QE To Buy $10 Billion A Month, To $15 Billion. The Fed Is Expected To End In October Asset Purchase QE, After The Repeated QE Quite A Long Time To Maintain Loose. Key For Quite Some Time And Labour Market Use Still, In A Statement. In Addition, The Fed Also Emphasized The Inflation Below The Target Level (Before Close To The Inflation Target For The Level). Therefore The Whole, The Fed’S Statement Relatively Dovish.

At The Same Time In September The Fed FOMC Meeting The Latest GDP Forecast, Fed Officials Also Cut Its Growth Forecast, Especially GDP Next Year. The Federal Reserve Will Range In 2015 GDP Growth Forecast To 2.6% To 3.0%, Lower Than Forecast Of 3.0% To 3.2% In June.

But The Fed’S Economic Outlook Report Will Be Released At The Same Time Since The Interest Rates Expected Value At A Specific Time Node, Called The Lattice Is Expected To Rise, The Market Is Still Bullish On Its Prospect. A Fall In The Value Of The Bond Market Yield Is Higher.

In The Fed’S Economic Outlook Report Released At The Same Time, The Rate Predicted At The End Of 2015 The Median Value Of 1.375%, Than The Further Raised Its Forecast Of 1.125% In June, The Expected Value Is Reached 2.875 At The End Of 2016, Compared With The Previous Built On 37.5 Basis Points, While The Predicted Value Of The Newly Released 2017 Low At 3.75%. Fed Officials Has Surprised Many People For The Forecast Of Future Interest Rates.

And Lattice Figure From The Latest Forecast To See The Situation And The Precision Of The Federal Reserve Has Taken The Interest Rate Prediction Interval To 12.5 Basis Points, Or One Percent Of One 8, Instead Of The Previous 25 Basis Points.

The Wall Street Journal Reports That It Might Also Means That In The Current Low Interest Rate Environment, The Extent Of The Fed Raising Interest Rates Since May Not Continue To Constrained By 25 Basis Points Integer Times, It May Take More Intensification Of Interest Rate Policy Fine-Tuning Measures. In That Case, First Appeared In The Amplitude Of A More Moderate Or Imply Higher Interest Rates Ahead Of Time.

Market Reaction, Are A Significant Downward Pressure On Gold, Bonds, Stocks Modestly Higher, The Dollar Is Strong Gains. Suggesting Future Are Approved By The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Or In Advance, And The Relative Independence Of The Stock Market Is Short-Term Response To The Statement.

CRT Capital, The Bond Market’S Chief Curator Ader Said In An Interview With CNBC Summary Of The Fed’S Statement Wording Doves Apparently, But About Lattice Expected Adjustment Is Relatively Hawkish.

Why Us/Japan Triumphantly GPIF Or Accelerate Investment Diversification

On Tuesday (September 2) Dollar/Yen Sharply Higher, 104.45 On A Strong Resistance Level, Exchange Rate With High Positive Correlation Between The Nikkei Index Rose, A Major Push By The News Of The Japanese Cabinet Reshuffle On Wednesday, Japan’S Prime Minister, Mr Abe May Be Appointed Vice Chairman Of The LDP ZhengDiaoHui Shiozaki Be The Minister Of Health, Labour And Welfare.

Shiozaki, Are Among The Most Advocated The Ruling Government Retirement Pension Investment Fund GPIF Diversify Officials, If He Can, Is Expected To Accelerate The GPIF Investment Diversification, The Diversification Is Likely To Boost Japan’S Domestic Stock Markets.

GPIF Is One Of The World’S Largest Pension Funds, According To The Latest Data Show That The Pension Fund Share Holdings In The Second Quarter Of The Japanese Government Bonds, The JGB Holdings Since The Portfolio Of 55.4% To 53.4%, A Record Low.

Some Analysts Pointed Out That These Changes Indicate That GPIF Money Is Flowing From JGBS Risk Assets, Is Expected In The Next 18 Months, So The GPIF Selling The Currency Will Reach 11 Trillion Yen, Public Pension Funds In The Total Selling Amount Will Amount To 16 Trillion Yen.

In Fact, Before The News, The Dollar/Yen Has Been A Very Strong Performance, According To Analysts, Which Seems To Indicate That The Boj May Already Be Discounted By Investors Or Will Open New Easing Expectations. Will Be Held On Thursday, The Central Bank Interest Rate Meeting, Such Expectations Or Continue To Weaken The Yen.

(Credit Suisse), An Analyst At Credit Suisse, Said The United States/Japan Further Challenges In 105.48/60, We Expect The Region Will Be Selling. More Cycles On 105.48/60 Wear Will Be Significant Bullish Signal, Potential Further Trend Resistance Need To Look At 107.31 Level.

And The Bank Analyst, Fell To A 103.55/42 Will Ease The Rate Of Short-Term Upside Risks, Depth And Retreat To 103.09/03, And The Region Will Appear New Buying.

How International Gold Futures Price Charts Look At

The International Gold Futures And Stock Price Charts Analysis Graph Analysis Diagram Is The Same, Basically Be To See The Change Of The Market And Price, Gold Futures Price Changes Related To The Market, So How International Gold Futures Price Charts Look At?

International Gold Futures Price Graph Is The Price Of Gold Futures Trading Within A Certain Time, Time, Information Such As Volume With A Curve Or K Line On Coordinate Chart To Display Graphics Technology. Charts, By Definition, And Can Be Divided Into Curve Graph And K Line Graph Two Kinds.

By Gold Futures K Line Graph, The People Will Be Able To Make The Daily Or A Cycle Of Market Performance Recorded Completely, Gold Futures Prices After A Period Of Disk Files, Which Form A Special Area Or On The Diagram Form, Different Forms Show Different Meanings. Thus From These Changes In Morphology Of Infer Something Regularly.

Gold Futures K Line Graph Is The Abscissa Denotes The Trading Time, The Price As The Ordinate, K Line Continuous Draw Daily, Namely Into The Chart.

K Line Graph Of Gold Futures In Cylinder Has The Branch Lines To Yang And Yin. General Yang Line In Red Cylinder, Cylinder Black Said Yin Line.

If The Cylinder Said Period Closing Price Is Higher Than The Opening Price, Namely Gold Futures Prices, Will Be Cylinder Painted In Red, Black Painting Conversely. If The Opening Price Is Equal To The Closing Price, The Formation Of The Reticle.

Single Root K Line Illustration: A Single Gold Futures K Line Graph With The Opening Of Each Analysis Gold Price, The Highest Price Of Gold, The Price Of Gold, And An And Closing Price Of Gold.

In Order To Draw Day K Line As An Example, First Determine The Opening And Closing Prices, The Part Painted Rectangular Entity Between Them. If The Closing Price Higher Than The Opening Price, The K Line Called Yang Line, Expressed In The Hollow Entities. Vice Is Called Yin Line Entity Or Entities Represent White With Black.

These Are Small Make Up To Tell You About How International Gold Futures Price Charts Look At, More Gold Futures Introduction Please Focus On Gold Investment Network!

The Bank Of Canada Doves Expectations, The Dollar Against The Canadian Dollar Short-Term Fell Below 1.09

3 –

On Wednesday (September 3) New York Session, Just Released The Bank Of Canada Interest Rate Decisions To Maintain 1.00%, And The Interest Rate Decision Direction To Keep Neutral, Make It To The Bank Of Canada Doves Expectations, C $Dollar Bulls Settle Quickly, Short-Term Nearby Fell To 1.0876 From 1.09.

Resolution, According To The Bank Of Canada Announced Interest Rates To 1.00%, 1.00% Expected Value, The Former Value Is 1.00%. Inflation After Recovery Is Due To Temporary Stress. Outlook For Inflation Risks Remain Roughly Balanced, Still Expects Economic Overcapacity Will Get Absorbed In The Next Two Years. After Inflation, Is Due To Higher Energy Prices, And Other Specific Factors, Rather Than Because Of Any Change In The Canadian Domestic Economic Fundamentals.

Resolution Display For The Current Economic Recovery, While The Export Sector Seems To Be Recovering, But Rebounded, Still Need To Continue Until At Least The Conduction To Higher Business Investment And Higher Levels Of Employment. Canada In The Second Quarter Exports Obtain Strong Support, Because The United States Investment Spending Levels Increase, And The Canadian Dollar Depreciation In The Past. Canada In The Second Quarter Growth Is Stronger, The GDP Growth Almost Entirely To The Central Bank Expected In July.

In Addition, The United States At The Same Time Also Announced In July Durable-Goods Orders Data, Although The Data Is Slightly Less Than Expected, But The Strong Growth In Recent Months, Still Reflects The Economic Recovery. The Dollar Index Is Still Entrenched Near The High Of 82.88.

Later Can Keep An Eye On The Bank Of Canada’S Press Conference.

The Dollar Is Still Expected To Recover $1.09, Below The Support Level Near 1.0860. “

Beijing Time, 1.0897/1.0900 The Dollar Against The Canadian Dollar.

Bottom Up Life Gold Prices Remain Downward Path

Yesterday Bullion Hit $1250.20 An Ounce, Gold Minimum Test Of $1234.80 An Ounce, Compared With The Previous Trading Day Opening Price $1249.50 / Oz Fell $8.14, The Price Of Gold Or 0.65%, To $1241.36 An Ounce.

On Thursday, September 11, According To Data Released In China On August Consumer Price Index (CPI) Posted A 2.0% Year-On-Year, Less Than 2.3% 2.3% And The Expected Value Before. Numerical Continue To Lower Than The Official Target Of 3.5%. A Massive Deflation Intensified, Suffer Shadow Economic Growth Prospects.

Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws On Wednesday (September 10), Said Most Of The Russian Army Have Retreated From The East, It Also Makes Peace Hopes To Further Increase. However, He Also Pointed Out That To Maintain A Ceasefire Is Not An Easy Task, Pro-Russian Armed Has Been Trying To Provoke The Army.

Trading Day From The Day Online, Charge A Pillar Of Belt Slants So Long Yin, Today’S Gold Prices Operation Under The Forest Track Above The Cloth, Cloth Belt Large Opening, MACD Form Death Fork, RSI, Spot Gold Short Potential Energy Decreases, But Above Average Pressure Still Nots Allow To Ignore, Empty Square Is Still Dominant, Rebound Co., LTD.

Spot Gold From 4 Hours Online, Cloth Belt Opening Downward, Gold Prices To Run On Cloth Under The Forest Over The Rail, The Appended Drawings Index Form Death Fork MACD, RSI Go Flat, Spot Gold In The Rail And Average Run Between MA5, A Line After The Drop Test 1234, Gold Is Up Today Test Of 1240 A Line Above The Pressure, Above Average MA10 Distribution, Respectively, In 1345-1250 And Forest Rail Line, Above The Heavy Pressure, Gold Prices Are Still Falling Channels, The Magnitude Of The Technical Repair Co., LTD.

The Price Gap, The International Price Of Gold Over The Psychological Barrier

Today Gold Above Resistance Firstly See Friday To Support 1218-20, Break Above Resistance At Friday’S High 1228-30, Strong Resistance To Low Before The Support Resistance At 1240. Gold Prices Below Support The Intraday Low Of 1208 First, Broken Below Support At 1200, Under The Strong Support Will Be Low Before 1288 And 1282.

Important Economic Data This Week To Europe And The United States, Europe Has PMI And German IFO Data, While The United States Will Be Released, Durable Goods Orders, GDP And Inflation Data, This Week Will Focus On The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’S Remarks.

The Precious Metals Market This Month Is Expected To Again. Investors Need To Always Keep The Mood To Control The Risk Of Investment, Are Now In A Critical Mark For Support, Market Impact Will Be Relatively Large.


Today’S Rapid Test 1208 Gold Trading, The Relief Rally Support Around The End Of 13 Low Jitter Support Near 1212. Gold Disk 5 Daily Average Line 1224, Average Line In 1257, In 1232, 20 And 40 To 60 Average Is Far Away From The Gold Nearby In 1288.

International Gold Index On MACD0 Axis Direction In – 20 Form Deviation, RSI Direction Under The Cross Under 50, KD Stick Above The 0 Axis Cross Fixed Up At Any Time. And Stochastic See Weekly Serious Deviation, The International Gold Price Date Line Below 0 Axis,,

Figure To See The International Gold Price Hours 1-4 Hours In The Low Post, Four Indexes Showed Up Signs Of The Cross. Today Gold Below Support First See The Intraday Low Of 1208, Under The Broken Below Support At 1200, Between Strong Support Will Be Low Before In 1288 And 1288. Technical Look Though The Overall Trend In The Short, But The Technology Is Unfavorable To Chase After An Empty Form, Because Below The 1200 Mark Will Also Be Faced With The Psychologically Important Technology And Support.

Carney Tonight And Testimony The Pounds Of Gold And Silver In Foshan

Haqqani’S Speech Yesterday Still Not Dispel The Negative Impact Of The Scottish Referendum On Sterling And The Trading Their Testimony Will Be Taken. This Article Will Analysis To This Background Of Millions Of Pounds. At The Same Time Will Also Continue To Parse The Euro, Gold And Silver.


Key Events: Carney Testimony, Scottish Referendum

When The Session Beijing Time, The Bank Of England Governor Carney And Other Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee Members Will Attend The Treasury Select Committee Hearing.

The Bank Of England (Indicate) Governor Carney (Mark Carney) Overnight In Tuc Salary Problem Speaking, The Central Bank Or Will Start Raising Interest Rates In The Spring Of 2015. But The Speech Failed To Pound On Continuous Boost, Because The Market Is Still Concern The Scottish Independence Risk.

Polls On Scottish Independence Referendum, Agree With The Proportion Of The Reactionary Is Very Close, The Number Of People In Favor Of Independence Is Prevailed For A Time. The British Government Said, Still Has Not Scottish Independence Contingency Plans. That Once The Scottish Independence, The British Economy Will Face The Risk Of Uncertainty Have Risen Sharply. The Factor Is The Most Important Factor Of Suppressing Sterling.

Although Carney Said That In The Spring Of 2015 Started To Raise Interest Rates, But Once The Scottish Independence, Britain’S Economic Situation Changes Or Disturb The Bank Of England Had To Raise Interest Rates To Deploy. Investors Need To Focus On The Evening Of Testimony, To Seek Further Clues Of The Bank Of England, Especially If The Scottish Independence, The Bank Of England Policy Will Respond.


Short-Term Performance: Gap In Good Pressure Sustained

Sterling/Dollar Rebound Slightly Yesterday, But The Downward Trend Did Not Pose Any Threat To Date Figure. Expected Market Outlook Will Continue To Test After The United States Call A Level Of 1.5830, Unless He Release Extremely Hawkish Statements Or Scottish Referendum Against Independent Accounting For Than Again Held On The Poll.

And The Pound Fell Not Only For Its Own Reason, Overall Strength Of The Dollar To Pound Hard To In The GBP/Usd Currency To Please Any Cheaper.

Is Expected To Jump Of The Early Opening Mouth Intact Will Pound ZhongDuanXian Downward Pressure Constant.

The Euro/Dollar

Short-Term Performance: Focus On 1.2990 Resistance Integrity

The Euro Rebounded Sharply Yesterday, But Not To The Week’S Big Yin Line Above, Is To Make Short-Term Downside Risks Remain. But Investors Should Also Focus On 1.2990 Resistance Integrity. Continue In Good Condition, The Resistance Will Ensure That The Exchange Rate Test After 1.2820 Goals.

Precious Metals

Gold: Guard Risk Under The Long Shadow

Gold Plate Further Pressure On Yesterday, But Since The Rebound Of The Charge Under The Long Shadow. Overall, Gold Downside Risks Persist, 1273 Resistance Continued Good Will Make Its Previously Said 1240 Goals. But Investors Also Need To Be Mindful Under The Long Shadow Of Consolidation. For Short, The Best Result Is The Session Closed Down And Under The Long Shadow Of Yesterday.

The Situation In Ukraine, The Netherlands Security Council Released MH17 Preliminary Report Of The Crash, Said The Reason Is In The Air Was Hit By A Large Objects, A Lot Of Energy. But The Current Situation In Ukraine Is Apparently Not Obvious Effect On Gold’S Support.

Silver: 18.80 Blow Play Can Break

Silver Yesterday Near The Lowest 18.85, From 18.80 Previously Said Target Only One Step Away. In 19.37 Under The Condition Of Resistance In Good Condition, The Session Is Likely To Hit The Target. Is Similar To That Of Gold, However, Also Need To Be Mindful Under The Long Shadow.

The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Still Need To See The Data

The Federal Reserve Will Start Early Monetary Normalization Process Expected Apparent Rise At The Weekend. Analysts Said That At Present, The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Point Of Controversy Will Continue. But As The Economy Gradually Get Rid Of The Bad Weather And The Beginning Of America’S Job Market Continues To Improve, The Fed In Determining Its Monetary Policy Adjustment Time, Still Want To See The Facial Expression Of A Series Of Economic Data In The Future.

Brad Mention In The First Quarter Of Next Year Interest Rates

Lift The Hawkish Voices Or The United States First St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

He Throws The Fed Should Be Raising Interest Rates In The First Quarter Of 2015. He Emphasized That The Performance Of Moderate Economic Growth And Inflation Should Ensure That Interest Rates Can Be Increased, At The Beginning Of 2015, Of Course, This Judgment Is Based On My Personal Prediction Can Come True; But The Fed Until Inflation And Unemployment Is Fully Achieve Their Goals And Take Any Measures To Policy For Normalization, Indeed It Is Not Wise.

Brad, Points Out That In His View, Is Quite A Long Time The Language In Order To Clear That Interest Rates Will Not Immediately After The End Of The Asset Purchase Program. He Suggests That The Fed’S Policy Foresight Guidance Should Be Raising Interest Rates More Explicitly And Economic Conditions.

At The Same Time, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart Sing Again, Think Raise Interest Rates Too Early Now. But He Stressed That The Possibility Of The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates In Advance To Create In The Next Few Months To See More Economic Evidence Based Support Raise Interest Rates.

Based On The Current Economic Fundamentals, Lockhart Said, He Still Thinks The Economy Will Continue To Strengthen, Could Prompt The Fed To Raise Interest Rates In 2015 Forecast Is Reasonable. He Also Stressed That Don’T Concern About Inflation Rose Quickly.

Economic Data Rates Decision Point

For The Fed’S Two Top Seen, Analysts Pointed Out That The Tone Is Similar To The Previous, But All Show More Attention To The Economic Data; As A Matter Of Fact, Yellen’S Position At The Jackson Hole Meeting, Also Showed That Attention To The Economic Data Such As The Job Market.

The New York Times, Wrote Not In Favor Of The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Too Rapidly, Because It May Hinder The Ability Of The Us Labour Market Recovery And Speed Of Economic Development. The Paper Also Emphasized That Even If A Full Recovery, Economic Growth And Employment Market Is Not Sure If It Could Push Up Inflation, As Inflation Rose Need Wages Rise Sharply, And This Requires More Than 3.5% Can Be Referred To As The Big Data, Only 1.9% Of Current Levels.


The Wall Street Journal Said, As The U.S. Economy And The Job Market Continues To Improve, The Fed Needs To Pay Attention In The Second Half Will Be Released In The Second And Third Quarter Economic Data, Especially The Core Inflation Rate, Wage Levels And Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate Data.

Short-Covering Presses Gold Recovered Slightly Analysts Warn The Dead Cat Bounce

On Thursday, September 18, While Gold Prices Rebound Due To Short Covering, But The Situation Is Still Relatively Weak Rebound, Gold Is Still Relatively Weak State. On Friday, After Opening, Swings Between $1226 An Ounce.

In A Day Earlier, Because The Fed FOMC Meeting Resolution Show Hawkish Tendencies, Gold Prices Fell Below $1220 An Ounce, Once To Eight And A Half Months Minimum.

Analysts Said, As The Dollar Index Rose To The Highest Level In More Than Four Years, And The U.S. Stock Market Hit A New High On Thursday, Gold Prices Rebound Is Still Weak, Is Likely To Fall Further.

RJO Futures, A Senior Market Strategist At Eli Said Tesfaye, Today’S Gold Prices Rebound Is Driven By Short Covering, But I Think It May Be A Dead Cat Bounce. If You Cannot Support, Then Gold Prices Will Again Test $1200 An Ounce Level.

The U.S. Department Of Labor Data Show That The United States On September 13, The Week After The Seasonally Adjusted Jobless Benefits To Reduce From 36000 To 280000, To Nearly Two Months Since The Lows, Expected 305000 People, The Former Value Correction For 316000 People. It Marked The U.S. Jobs Market Continue Earlier Strong Recovery. Gold Prices Therefore Under Pressure.

But The U.S. Commerce Department Data Showed U.S. Housing Starts In August Plunge, Hit One-Month Decline Since April 2013, The Largest Still Uneven, Suggests That America’S Housing Market Rebound Will Inhibit The Momentum Of Economic Recovery To A Certain Degree.

30 Days, According To Yesterday’S Comex Volume Is About 25% Higher Than Average.

Last Week, Gold Has Experienced Five Consecutive Trading Day Down, Repeatedly Below Support Level, So The Fed FOMC Meeting This Week In Week Recovery And Fell Again. Market Expectations Of Interest Rate Rises And The Price Pressure On The Dollar Is Rising, And The Fed Will End In October QE, And It Is Because The QE Began Gold Hedging Function Highlights The Gold Price Has Rise Significantly, Also Because Of Worries About End Of QE, Gold Fell By 28% Last Year. In Thomson Reuters Gold Has Said In The Interim Report, Demand Is Unlikely To Come Back In The West.

Geopolitical, America’S Defence Secretary, Hagel Said On Thursday That U.S. Senior Military Leaders Have Agreed To Enter Syria ISIS Action Plan.

Focusing On The Market At Present The Results Of The Scottish Independence Referendum.

Physical Demand, China’S Gold Market Premium From Around $4 An Ounce To $5 – $6 / Ounces.

SPDR Gold ETF Holdings Remained At The Levels Of 784.22 Tons, This Month To About 10 Tons.

Ukraine Warned All-Out War The European Union To Consider Sanctions Against Russia’S New List

The European Union (EU) Leaders On Sunday (August 31) Agreed That In The Coming Week To Work Out A New Trade Sanctions Against Russia Series Of Department List, So As To Hope That Russia Can Begin To Reverse The Actions Within The Territory Of Ukraine. Before Making A Decision In The Eu, Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws (Petro Poroshenko) Is The Current Situation Has Published A Lengthy Briefing, And Warned That Once The Russian Military Continues To Ukraine Separation Forces To Help, I’M Afraid The Result Will Be A Full-Scale War.

Worry About Sanctions, However, Russia To The Eu’S Depression By A Blow To The Economy’S Already Has Returned, They Also Can Be Sustained For Russia’S Energy Supplies Prospects Feel Restless, So That The Boat Sexual Attitude Means That The European Union To The Russian President Vladimir Putin (Vladimir Putin) Determined The Ultimatum, Also Issued A Clear Hard Conditions.

The European Council (European Council) Have Called On Russian Immediately Withdraw Its In All Military Assets And Troops And Within The Territory Of Ukraine And Implement A Ceasefire. Eu Leaders Asked The European Commission (European Appointed Within The Last Week Preparing Proposals Concerned About Sanctions, To Its Evaluation, They Asked For Related Measures Include Severely Punish Those Who Separated From The East Forces Have Close Connections To Any Person Or Economic Entity.

New Sanctions On The Horizon German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel) Require New Sanctions Ready Within A Week, Says Mr Putin Action Must Be Taken To Avoid The Eu Offering New Sanctions. Angela Merkel, Points Out That If The Current Situation In Eastern Ukraine Continued, Even Worse, The Eu Will Be A Decision For New Sanctions, The Eu Has Any Business Sector Is Likely To Consider Surgery By Retribution.

French President Francois Hollande (Francois Hollande) Statement Close And Angela Merkel, Said Ukraine’S Domestic Situation Is Very Serious, So That The Eu Must Sanctions Level Through Ascension To Respond, Means That The Flow Of Weapons Into Ukraine, Russia May Have More Russian Soldiers Crossed Into Ukraine.

Presided Over The Summit Of The European Council, He (Herman Van Rompuy), According To The Evolution Of Further Sanctions Against Russia Ukraine Will Depend On The Situation On The Ground, There Is No Definite Standard Sanctions, But I Can Assure You That The Eu Assure Everyone, Had To Act Quickly.


European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso (), Jose Manuel Barroso Said The Relatively Cautious, According To Strengthen Sanctions Against Russia Is Not In Order To Intensify The Crisis In Ukraine, But In Order To Pull In Moscow To The Negotiating Table, The European Union Does Not Want To Happen.

Lithuanian President Gerry Package, Kate (Dalia Grybauskaite) Has Traditionally Been Outspoken Critic Of Mr Putin, Even Complained That The European Union Foot-Dragging On Challenge, Vladimir Putin, Called On The Eu Authorities Provide Emergency Military Aid To Ukraine, Ukraine Says Moscow Attack Behavior Is Waging War In Europe. , Polo Draws Strike While The Iron Is Hot, He’S Military Procurement For Dialogue With Multiple Countries, But More Likely NATO (NATO) Summit Was Held In Warsaw In Major Progress.

But Germany Would Have Made It Clear That The Country Will Not Sending Weapons To Ukraine. Ms Merkel Said, Political Reconciliation Is The Only Way To Ukraine Armed Conflict.

Polo Draws Is Pointed Out That Hope To Finalise A Diplomatic Solution, In The Coming Week, The European Union Sanctions Plan Will With His Personal Effort To Push The Implementation Of A Peace Negotiations; Hope On Monday (September 1) In Russia, The European Union And Ukraine Tripartite Talks Can Contribute To A Cease-Fire Agreement, We Are In A Non-Return Road Are Very Close To A Point, That Is Total War.

British Prime Minister David Cameron (David Cameron) Believes That Europe Must Show Real Determination And Real Elasticity, Which Made Clear Russia, Once Its In Ukraine, Will Quickly Reverse The Relationship Between Russia And Europe, Russia And The United States.

The Eu Remains On Sanctions Against Russia Can Be Fragmented However, Slovakia’S Prime Minister, Mr Joe (Robert Fico) Thinks, I’M Afraid The Eu Sanctions Are Meaningless, Or Even Backfire. Fico Threatened, Once Any Sanctions Against Russia’S New Measures Introduced By The European Union And Slovakia, The Country Will Veto. Have To Mention Is That Slovakia Needs Russian Gas Supplies.

Just At The Eu Summit Was Appointed He Successor Of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (Donald Tusk) Admitted That Sanctions Against Russia Really Can Cause A Lot Of Trouble To The Eu Member States, But You Have To Pay Such A Price.

Also At The Summit, Italian Foreign Minister Gehry’S (Federica Mogherini) Was Appointed To The European Union Foreign Ministers. Mo Gehry’S Stressed That The Need To Focus On Foreign Settlement With Russia, Based On Our Considerations On Sanctions Against Russia And Level, We Must Also For Diplomatic Efforts To Open The Door… Hope (Sanctions And Diplomacy) Intelligent Combination Can Work. Widely Assumed, The Italian Dependent On Russian Gas, And Thus To Mr Putin’S Weakness, But Mo Gehry’S Debut After Their Appointment Shows That She Is Eager To Change The Attitude To Italy.

The Fed’S Internal Debate Forward-Looking Guide Modified Into Focus

Several Fed Officials Have Said The Fed Forward Guidance About The Content Of The Interest Rate, You Need To Change Around This Problem, Recently Had A Fierce Debate Inside The Fed.

In The Past Few Days, The Fed Up And Down The Collective Voice, From The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Has The Right To Vote Of Members, Doves Or Hawks, The Fed Chairman, To The Place To Officials In Washington, Have Called For Change Perspective To Guide The Phrase.

These People Speech Reminded The Market, In This Month’S FOMC Meeting, To Raise Interest Rates The Phrase May Have Some Changes, Although The Consensus Degree Is Not High, The Real Transformation May Have To Wait Until October Meeting.

Said To Modify The Wording, One Of The Most Critical One Is That The Fed Has Been Said In The Preview Guide, Will End In October After QE To Keep Interest Rates Low For Quite Some Time. But As U.S. Economic Data Continued Stable Performance, The Fed’S Internal People Keep Voice Suggested That Might Need To Raise Interest Rates Early Next Year.

Fed Governor Jerome Powell Said On Thursday, The FOMC Statement In Some Important Parts Of The Wording Of The Need To Change. Cleveland Fed Chairman Loretta Mester On The Same Day, Also Said The Fed Needs To Adjust The Interest Rate Of The Forward-Looking Guidance, So As To Better Reflect The Fed’S Progress In Achieving Economic Goals.

Powell And Mester Communication Is The Fed’S Policy Committee, Two Of The Four Members, They Fear Of Predictive Guidance Is Also Reflected In The FOMC Internal Hawk Pigeon Two Parties Debate.


Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren Said On Friday, With Unemployment Rates Gradually Close To The Goal Of Full Employment, The Fed Should Stop Issuing Monetary Policy Guidance Of The Timing. Rosengren Is A Strong Supporter Of The Federal Reserve’S Monetary Stimulus Policy. And His Opponent, The Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, Famous Hawks, On Saturday, Our First Priority Is To Change The Wording In The Preview Guide Now, Want To Let The Market Know We Will Raise Interest Rates Faster Than Expected.

Market Is Inclined To The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Is Scheduled For The Second Quarter Of 2015, But The Fed’S Own Point Of View Or Raise Interest Rates Should Be Completely Determined With Reference To The Economic Development, And There Is No Specific Date.

Yellen, Chairman Of The Federal Reserve In June This Year, Warning Of Strong Data May Lead To Interest Rates Ahead Of Time, And In August Meeting To Give A More Neutral Evaluation To The Job Market. It Shows That The Federal Reserve This Year Foreign Statement Change Trend.

FOMC Officials Will Be Meeting In September Updated Economic Forecasts, Despite Friday’S Non-Farm Payrolls Numbers Make A Lot Of, But Officials Or May Generally Take Their Expectations, And Could Also Put Forward At The Meeting Some Specific Exit Strategy. The Content Will Be Reflected In The Post-Meeting Statement Yellen, Worth Investors To Focus On.

When Yellen Speech To Keep Interest Rates Low For A Long Time The Wording Are Unlikely To Be Directly Removed One Of The Most Don’T Want To See Things Because The Federal Reserve, Is The Market Interest Rates Expected Too Early. But Yellen May For This Sentence Plus A Qualification, Such As Low Interest Rates Will Remain For Quite Some Time, Unless The Labour Market Development Faster Than Expected.

Another Situation Is That The Fed May Release The Fuzzy Words But Let The Market Do Not Need To Worry, For Example, Rosengren Said On Friday The Fed Reduced Stimulative Monetary Policy Have To Be Patient.

How Changes In The Wording Of The Federal Reserve Will Eventually Remains An Elusive Problem, But One Thing Is For Sure, Namely Since Last December Cuts QE, The Fed Will Maintain The Peaceful Atmosphere Of Rectified Dissipating, As Interest Rates Rise, The Eagle Pigeon Both Sides Of The Debate Will Be Increasingly Fierce.

The European Central Bank To Cut Interest Rates Or The Dollar Will Appreciate Passive Appreciation

, Experts Said The Dollar Trend Will Continue, Under The Linked Exchange Rate System, Money Flows Into Hong Kong And The Mainland Will Continue To

This Trainee Journalist Qiao Zhidong

A Few Days Ago, The European Central Bank Unexpectedly Announced The Main Refinancing Rate Down To 0.05%, The Overnight Deposit Rate Fell To 0.20%, The Overnight Lending Rate Down To 0.30%, Have Cut 10 Basis Points. At The Same Time, The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Said That The European Central Bank Launched The Latest Measures To Revive Lending, Will Start From October To Buy A Large Number Of Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Loans And Guarantees.

The Early Stage Of The Superposition Of The European Central Bank Unexpectedly Cut Interest Rates The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Expected To Speed Up, Is Likely To Trigger A New Round Of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Of Multi-Currency Passive Appreciation. Bank Of Communications (601328, Shares) Asset Management Center, A Senior Researcher At Chen Gu Fly Yesterday In An Interview With “Securities Journal” Reporter Said.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Was Expected Rate Cuts Announced On The Day Of The Euro Against The Dollar Plunged 80 Basis Points. At The Same Time, The Hong Kong Offshore RMB Market Is Unusually Strong, The RMB Exchange Rate Rose More Than 70 Basis Points; Consistent With This Is That The China Foreign Exchange Trade Center On September 4, The Yuan Against The Dollar At The Spot Exchange Rate Also Rallied Strongly 31 Basis Points, After Touching Since March 11, The Half A Year High Of 6.1339.

Chen Gu Fly Said, Since July 2005 In Our Country Based On Market Supply And Demand, Reference To A Basket Of Currencies, Managed Floating Exchange Rate Reform, The Dollar Index And The Renminbi BIS Real Effective Exchange Rate Index Of Whole Showing A High Degree Of Correlation, The Dollar Index Strong Drive Against The Currency Exchange Rate Appreciation More Often At The Same Time; If The Superposition Of Other Non-Us Currencies, The Passive Appreciation Of The RMB Effective Exchange Rate Effect Will Be More Obvious. In 2014 China’S Foreign Exchange Rate Trend Lower, The RMB Exchange Rate Volatility Further Relax, And The Central Bank Has Clearly Normalized Exit Under The Background Of The Foreign Exchange Market Intervention, From September To Emerge From The European Central Bank Unexpectedly Cut Interest Rates Policy Shocks Spillover Effect, The Short-Term RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation Will Significantly Increase In The Risk Of Overshoot.

In The Short Term, The European Central Bank To Cut Interest Rates Again, Be Vividly Portrayed, Euro QE The Fed QE Will Be Quit, The Underlying Economy Stable, Raising Interest Rates Expected Heats Up, The Dollar Trend Will Continue. Hong Kong And The Mainland Capital Inflows Will Continue. Minsheng Securities Research Institute, Vice President Of GuanQing Friends To The “Securities Daily” Reporters.

If The Third And Fourth Quarters Reappearance Passive Outside Appreciation And Inside Depreciation Of RMB Exchange Rate, The Trade Department Will Again Face Adverse Impact. The European Central Bank To Cut Interest Rates In September The Spillover Effect Of Appreciation Of RMB Exchange Rate Risk, May Make The Already Weak Exports Bear Could Not Bear. Chen Gu Fly Said.

The Situation In Russia And Ukraine] Wu Rebuked The Naked Aggression Mr Putin Spill The Beans?


Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws On Monday (September 1) Condemned Russia Naked Aggression Directly, Which Leads To The Battlefield Military Contrast Sharply Change, Ukraine’S Government Forces In The War With The Pro-Russian Separatist Forces Further Frustration.

The Army Inaction Russia Spoilers?

Government Forces Last Week Retreat, In The Latest Defeat, Ukrainian Military Said It Was Abandoned Near The Eastern Lugansk An Important Airport, When The Army Against The Russian Tanks, Fighting.

Polo Draws Said In His Speech, Wu Army Senior Will Change, Because In The Face Of New Offensive In Southern Rebels, The Army Is Ratting Out, According To Kiev And Its Western Allies, The Rebels Of The New Attack Supported By Russia’S Armour.

Russian President Vladimir Putin Leadership Refused To Blame The Kiev And Separatists In Direct Political Negotiations, On Sunday, Mr Putin Asked Wu In Southern And Eastern Areas Of National Status Immediately.

European Union Leaders In Other Decided At The Meeting On Saturday, Russian Directly Involved In The Civil War In Ukraine, Cause It Is Necessary To Strengthen The Economic Sanctions, Unless Russia Withdraw. But Russia Has Denied That The Russians Have To Participate In The Civil War.

The Eu Brewing New Sanctions Useful?

Eu Sources Said, German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel) Not To Consider Accepting Russian Behavior At The Same Time, The European Union Representatives Will Begin To Discuss A Series Of New Sanctions, Including A Ban On European Countries To Buy Bonds In Russia.

Last Week, See Will Curb The Eastern Ukraine Lasted Four Months Of The Insurgency. But Only To Rebel Turned South Sea Coast Of Assyria Has Opened Up A New Front, To Mali Wu Bohr Advance.

Ukraine Has Been Sticking To Its Own Non-Aligned Status, In The East Of Russia And The West Have Two Major European Powers Of The World. However, NATO Secretary General Rasmussen, Said Wu Political Leaders Expect The Prospect Of A New Parliament In Next Month To Give Up This State, Apply To Join NATO For The Future.

In The Face Of The European Union Will Strengthen The Threat Of Sanctions Against Russia, Putin Demanded That The European Union Look Before You Leap. I Hope Everybody To Want To Have Common Sense, In A Normal Way Of Modern Processing Problems, The Interfax News Agency Quoted Mr Putin Said.

Two Weeks Learning Kiev! Mr Putin’S Intention Or Spill The Beans?

According To The Daily Mail Quoted Italy La Repubblica Newspaper Reported That Russian President Vladimir Putin On Monday (September 1) And The European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso Said When On The Phone, If I Want To Do, The Russians Can Capture Kiev In Two Weeks. After The Ukrainian Army Had Just Lost Control Of The Key Airport In The East Of The Country. Western Fears That Russia Will Support A New Pro-Russian Regime In Eastern Ukraine.

Jose Manuel Barroso, The European Union Leader, Said Mr Putin Is In Response To The Question Of Whether Or Not To Have Russian Soldiers In Eastern Ukraine When Doing The Above Said. German Chancellor Angela Merkel Also Said That Putin This Person Is Completely Unpredictable. British Prime Minister David Cameron Said, Can’T Let Russia Occupied The Whole Ukraine, Otherwise Will Repeat The Tragedy Of The Second World War To Appeasement.

The European Union Announced Russian Satellite Image Into Ukraine:

The Face Within The Territory Of Russia And The Double Pressure Of Pro-Russian Armed, Ukraine Has Said To Seeking NATO Membership For Protection. Mr Putin Has Placed The Kinds, Said: Is Second To None In The Russian Nuclear Power, Had Better Not Mess With Us. Now There Are Seven NATO Countries Plan To Jointly Set Up A Rapid Response Force Against Russia, Scale For At Least 10000 People.

The Paper Gold Price Haze Fall Next Week A Week Without The Bottom Line

Gold Cast The Net On September 13, Paper Gold Prices Further Down 1% On Friday, Hitting A Low, Eight Months Due To A Lack Of Physical And Investment Demand, And Commodity Prices Also Pressuring The Paper Gold Prices Fell. And Prices, Also Bring Trouble Is Gold, Silver And Platinum Low Platinum Hit Earlier This Year So Far.

Paper Gold Price Falls, Because The United States In August Retail Sales Growth Across, Consumer Confidence Hit A 14-Month High In September, This Will Help Relieve Worries About Consumer Spending, And Support For The Third Quarter Economic Growth Expectations.

Paper Gold Prices Fell 3.1% This Week, The Biggest Weekly Decline In Five Months, As Investors Have Become Increasingly Worried That The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Earlier Than Expected.

Analysts Also Pointed Out That The Biggest Demand Is Still Very Few, Interstellar Demand For India And China. Investors Buying Interest For Precious Metals And Commodities Markets In General Is Not High Also.

Traders Say, India Gold Prices Fell By A Quarter Over The Last Year, India People’S Confidence In Gold As A Hedging Tool. India Is The World’S One Of The Main Physical Gold Consumer.

From Day Chart, Paper Gold Prices At Cloth Forests Rail, Cloth Belt And There Were Signs Of Opening, Continue To Test Can’T Be Ruled Out, Date Line Under The Charge With A Long Wire Cross, Year Low, The Subsequent Rebound In 242 Line, The Demand Of The Market Rebound Has Repair, Paper Gold Price Is Expected To Return To 245 Above, And Therefore, Suggested That Low, Next Monday At The Same Time Pay Attention To Whether To New Lows.

4 Hours Online, Paper Gold Price Performance Collection Entity Sun, Cloth Belt Going Downwards, With Gold MACD Fork Trend, Short-Term Concussion May Fix, This Focus On Monday.

In Addition, The Paper Gold Prices If Again Low, Focus On The 240 Line, If Lost Here, No Bottom Line, The Paper Gold Prices Will Fall Out Of The News More QE In October Booster Paper Gold Prices Fell.


Gold Cast Net (Http://Www.Cngold.Org) Gold Market, According To The Center Of Beijing All The Time, The Paper Gold Real-Time Quotes At 242.79 Yuan Per Gram.

The Financial Sector’S Five Big Irony

No One Industry, Such As The Financial Sector, Charge Can Be Rigged

Almost All Of The Cost Of Financial Institutions Directly Deduct From The Customer’S Assets, Rather Than The Customer To Pay After Receipt Of Invoice. The Costs Become More Subtle. People Will Focus On Their Mobile Phone Bills And Fuel Costs, But No One Knows How Much He Paid To The Bank Asset Management Consulting Fees. Ironically, If You Are Rich, This Could Be A Big Spending A Year, And You Are Ignored. You Every Month To Netflix Fee Of Us $8.99 Into Your Account, But It Ignores Your 401 (K) Consultants Charge Hundreds Of Dollars For Service.

No One Industry Can Cause So Big Of Injury, Practice Does Not Need Qualifications

A Doctor To Read School Of Medicine, A Lawyer To Get Your License, In The United States, Even The Barber And Manicurist Need A License. But What All Need Not Do A Fund Manager. Do You Want To Be A Fireman? That You Wait For More Training. Do You Want To Manage A Fireman Retirement Fund? Do You Want Just A Good Suit And A Confident Words.

None Of The Industry, As A Result, So Don’T Valued

The Financial Sector Has A Lot Of Bad Results, But Still In Practice. In 2012, With 2012 Mutual Fund Managers Work In The Financial Industry For 14 Years. 14 Years, However, Only 275 Managers Outperform Their Investment Benchmark Success. This Means That More Than 600 Investment Manager’S Performance Was Disappointing. However, They Still Work In The Financial Industry. Dozen Don’T Win The Case Law Will Be Unemployed, Serious Medical Doctor Practicing Qualification Will Be Revoked, And The Financial Industry Seems To Be An Exception.

Not A Business School Education Is So Failure


Let The Students Memorize The Periodic Table, But I Do Not Teach Them The Financial, This Is The Education Of A Big Failure. However, Even In The University Graduate School Of Business, Financial And Investment Of The Teaching And Practical Operation. Financial As To Teach Math Related Field. Students Learn How To Calculate The Beta, Analysis Of The Balance Sheet. In Reality, However, The Investment Is A Psychology. Good Investors Know How To Control Your Emotions. In Terms Of Education, School Of Medicine And Engineering College Are Doing Far More Than The Business Success.

No Single Industry Is So Important, But Hated By Many

Don’T Like Calculus Or Chemistry? This Is Normal. It’S A Sealed Book To You Still Can Live Very Well. But, Don’T Understand Finance Will Cause Huge Impact To The Quality Of Your Life. Everyone Should Know The Savings, Investment, Loans. Say You Don’T Care About Financial Means That You Don’T Care About Stability, Comfort, And Your Family. Understand It Is Your Responsibility, But A Lot Of People Volunteer To Give Up The Opportunity To Get To Know It.

Non-Agricultural To Five Lines Of Policy-Setting “Golden Nine Silver Ten” Hot Start

For Financial Markets, The Annual Golden Nine Silver Ten Always Is. Increased Market Volatility, The Central Bank Policy Facing Reshuffle, Frequent Important Economic Data. In The First Half Of This Year, Foreign Exchange And Precious Metals Market Under The Background Of Continued In A Low Volatility, The Golden Nine Silver Ten Is More Worth Investors To Grasp The Aircraft.

Golden Nine Silver Ten Markets This Week Will Have To Enter The First Week. As In The Traditional Sense Of Super Week At The Beginning Of Every Month, The Importance Of Risk Events Itself Is Worth Looking Forward To This Week. In August Non-Farm Payrolls Data Due On Friday Announced On September 5, (), In Addition To Australia, Japan’S Central Bank, The Bank Of Canada, The Bank Of England And The European Central Bank And Other Five Central Bank Will Soon Release Rate Decision. Among Them, Especially The Importance Of The European Central Bank Resolution, The Implementation Of Euro QE Or Not Will Be Full Of Suspense.

As Traders Return From The Holiday, Plus Met Super Weeks And Golden Nine Silver Ten Effect Of Superposition, The Coming Of This Rare Opportunity To Trade, Are You Ready?

Non-Agricultural Is Expected To Continue Strong, About How The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Expected?

The U.S. Department Of Labor (Labor Department) Will Be Released On Friday September 5Th () The United States And The Same Period Rose After The Non-Farm Payrolls And The Unemployment Rate Data. Market Is Widely Expected To, The United States On August Non-Farm Payrolls Growth Slightly Rebounded To 210000 (July 209000)?? More Than 200000 Is Expected To Be The Seventh Consecutive Month, The Unemployment Rate Will Drop To 6.1% Over The Same (Rebounded To 6.2% In July).

This Would Mean That The United States Both Manufacturing And Service Industries Expanded Steadily, And The Automobile Industry Is Thriving. August 16, It Is Worth Mentioning, Us Initial Jobless Claims In The Week Just Covers The Implementation Of Non-Agricultural Survey Period, Please Around 29.8 M Average Of 300750 At The Beginning Of July (30.3 309250) During This Period, The Mean August Non-Farm Payrolls Should Be Close To 250000.

Economist Of Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) Wooden Plug (Kris Dawsey), According To Preliminary Estimate The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Likely Increased By 240000 In August Than In July, Because Many Of The Services Of Investigation, Was Conference Employment Data And Initial Jobless Claims And Many Employment Index In August In The United States, To Improve; May According To The Institute For Supply Management (ISM) On Thursday (September 4) Released In August The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) And So On Numerous Data And Appropriate Adjustments As Expected, Given That There Is No Weather, Strikes, Financial Problems, Abnormal Composition And Obvious Seasonal Distortions In July And August Payrolls Report Ought To Be Able To Believe That The United States Is Directly Presents The Basic Trend Of U.S. Jobs To Improve.

The Economists Point Out That The Unemployment Rate In August Shall Fell 0.1% And 6.1% In June And Then Return To Cyclical Low Level; Once Employment Participation Gains Recorded By July Slightly Improved, The Unemployment Rate Is Expected To Be Even Dropped To 6.0%.

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch (BOA Merrill Lynch) Argue That U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Growth Is Expected To Rebound In August 245000, The Unemployment Rate Could Fall 0.1% To 0.1%; Previously Released By The U.S. Labor Market Indicators Have Been Release The Exciting Signal, The Conference Board Labor Cost Difference Narrowed To 12.4%, That Means, That The United States Jobs Increased Markedly Increased Of Respondents, And Claims For Jobless Benefits Remained At Around 300000 Near The Lows, In Conformity With The Employers Almost No Job Cuts, While Manufacturing Employment Growth Should Also Be Embodied As Health Survey And Recent Industrial Production Data Of So Strong.

For The Financial Markets, Once The Non-Farm Continued Strong Performance This Week, Is Likely To Mean That The Dollar Will Continue Strong Long Time. BNP Paribas (BNPP), An Economist At The Team Expects The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls May Increase In August 225000?? To Some Extent, Which Should Provide Support For The Dollar Against The Yen, Is Still Bullish On The Currency In 107.

, Much Attention Has Been Paid To The Silver Resolution Or QE To Give More Hint

This Week At The Central Level, The Importance Of The Silver Resolution May Not Miss Friday’S Non-Farm. The European Central Bank (ECB) Will Be Held On Thursday (September 4) Monetary Policy Meeting, President Mario Draghi (Mario Mr Draghi) Would Then Held A Press Conference.

Earlier, The Euro Zone’S August Consumer Price Index (CPI) Initial Value At An Annual Rate Of Increase Slowed To 0.3%, The Lowest Since 2009, Further Deviate From The European Central Bank Is Slightly Lower Than The 2.0% Inflation Target (ECCPEST), And There Is So Much Pain, Led By Germany, The Euro Zone Economy In The Near Future. But Is Still A Market Participants Believe That The European Central Bank (ECB) Could Still Maintain Its Loose Monetary Policy Meeting In September In Policy Unchanged.

Market Exists Such Views, Because The European Central Bank Has Slashed Rates In June (The Main Refinancing Rate Cut 10 Basis Points To A Record Low Of 0.15%, While Lowering Interest Rates On Deposits From Zero To Negative 0.10%, And The Marginal Lending Rate Cut 35 Basis Points To 0.40%), Moreover, The European Central Bank In September 18, The First Auction Directional Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO), And The European Central Bank Has Set His Sights On Purchase Asset-Backed Securities (ABS)?? Has Entrusted Blackrock Group To Assist The Design To Buy ABS.

In That Case, Mr Draghi Still Ought To Observe The Effect Of The Relevant Measures. Market Now Expects The Eurozone Banks May Provide The First Batch Of Orientation In September In The LTRO Absorb 300 Billion Euros.

Market Expected, Mr Draghi Will Certainly In The Press Conference Was Announced By 6 Month For Resolution Measures (Including Opening ABS Market) Give More Detailed Content, And Implement QE May Under Certain Conditions, Such As More Easing Suggests Are Given. Many Analysts Believe That The Market Has Been On The European Central Bank Easing Expectations Appear Aggressive, And Digest Such Expectations Ahead Of Time, Will Feel Disappointed; Under The Condition Of The Bottom On Thursday But On The Other Hand, Mr Draghi May Want To Market Expectations Of Its Quantitative Easing In Suspension Height, But In Fact Has Been Reluctant To Start Work.

At Present, The Views Still Exist A Certain Differences. BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) On Thursday (August 28) Adjusted For The European Central Bank Will Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged In September’S Expectations, To Think That Mr Draghi May Deposit Rates And Refinancing Rate Cut 10 Basis Points, Respectively. BNP Paribas To Explained That The Euro Zone’S Weak Economic Data, Mario Draghi Dovish Comments In Jackson Hole, And Then Modify The Policy Expectations; If The European Central Bank Held In September, It May Cause A Decline In Inflation Expectations.

Royal Bank Of Scotland (RBS) Is Pointed Out That Mario Draghi Speech At Jackson Hole In August, Not The Prelude To Quantitative Easing Policy In The Short Term, The European Central Bank Is Unlikely To Take Any Big Plan Before The End Of October, The Possibility Of Action At A Meeting In December Will Be Big.

Chief Currency Strategist At Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) Brooks (Robin Brooks) Has Cut The Euro Against The Dollar Over The Next Six Months Is Expected To 1.25 (1.34), Said The European Central Bank Will Further Easing Indeed, From Which Aspects Are Unclear, But The Direction Is Very Clear, It Has Been On The European Central Bank Will Present Situation Of Low Inflation In The Face.

Can Other Concerns This Week Overview: The Green Leaves Foil Safflower?

Although The Non-Agricultural Resolution And The Silver Is The Most Watched This Week Two Red Flowers, But The Message, The Performance Of The Other Green Leaves Also Nots Allow To Ignore. This Week Australia (RBA), The Bank Of Canada (BOC), The Bank Of Japan And The Bank Of England (Indicate) Monetary Policy Meeting Will Be O., Are Expected To Take A Back Seat, But There Are A Lot Of.

On Tuesday (September 2) Australia (RBA) Will Be Published The Latest Issue Of Interest Rate Decisions, Expected To Continue To Maintain A Neutral Monetary Policy Stance, No Plan To Cut Interest Rates. Nomura, Said The Current Australia The Fed Worries About The Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Continued, Reiterated “By Historical Standards, The Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Remains High, Especially In The Case Of A Major Fall In Commodity Prices, To Balance The Role Of Australia’S Economic Growth.”

The Bank Of Japan On Wednesday Are Also Expected To Stay Put, Even Household Spending Declined More Than Expected In July, Industrial Production Is Also Weak. Analysts Said That Japan Currently Has No Intention Of Expanding The Monetary Stimulus. But Such A Blow To The Bank Of Japan Data Of Optimism; If Unable To Get A Bigger Economic Growth Momentum, The Central Bank Will Further Introduce Stimulus Measures Under Pressure.

Morgan Stanley, Said: We Are Still Inclined To Yen Selling. We Believe That The Market Is Not To The Bank Of Japan Further Easing Pricing, In The Future. If The Boj Will Further Easing, This Will Further Pressure On The Yen. Japan Inflation Expectations Remain Low, So The CPI Data Is Still The Market Guessing Whether The Bank Of Japan Will Be The Key To Take Action In The Coming Months. Any Other Weak Japanese Economic Data Will Also Push Up The Possibility Of The Bank Of Japan To Take Action In October, And The Yen Lower.

In Addition, The Resolution On Wednesday, The Day The Bank Of Canada Will Also Be Published Rates, Governor Of The Bank Of Canada Said Last Week That The Job Market Is Still Weak, There Is Room To Maintain The Current Close To A Record Low Interest Rates. Governor Of The Bank Of Canada Lopez And The Interest Rate And The Language Of The Economic Performance, Will Directly Decided The Canadian Outlook.

The Bank Is Expected To Keep Interest Rates Unchanged On Thursday, The Bank Of England Earlier Said The Rising Wages Expected To Affect The Future Of The Bank Of England Rate Time. As Expected In The Next Few Months The Official Salary Data Is Unlikely To Rise Rapidly, So The Market Is Still Widely Expected The Bank Of England Rate Time Will Be Delayed Until Next Year. Although The Bank Of England On Thursday Is Expected To Not Take Policy Actions, But The Central Bank Is Expected To Be The First Major Central Bank To Raise Interest Rates. The Bank Of England Is Expected Early Next Year To Take Action, Slightly Earlier Than The Fed.

In Addition To The News On The Level Of The Central Bank, This Week The Euro Zone Countries And The UK Will Release A Series Of Manufacturing Data, Will Be For European Companies Under The Background Of Ukraine’S Crisis Intensified Clues How To Evaluate Its Prospects.

In August The Eurozone PMI Revised Will Continue To Reflect The Status Of The Euro Zone Economy. August Released Earlier Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Initial Value From 53.8 To 52.8 Last Month To A Two-Month Low, But Still For 14 Months In A Row To Maintain Expansion Above The 50 Level, Showed The Euro Zone To Slow Economic Growth. The Euro Zone’S Services PMI August Initial Value From 54.2 To 53.5 Lows For Two Months. The Euro Zone’S Manufacturing PMI Fell To 50.8 From 51.8 In August, Low For 13 Months.

Beijing, China On August Official Manufacturing PMI May Decline, Due To The Real Estate Industry Slowdown; This Reinforces The Authorities May Need To Take Further Policy Measures In Order To Maintain Growth Forecasts.

Golden Nine Silver Ten Dollars Before Been Bullish, Could Eventually Have The Last Laugh?

According To The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Data Released On Friday, The Latest Week Currency Speculators Bankrolling The Long Positions, For Two Consecutive Week, The Dollar Net Long Positions To The Highest Level In More Than Two Years.

On August 26, Check The Week Net Long Positions Increased To $32.92 Billion, $30.4 Billion The Previous Week. Dollars Net Long Positions Jumped Because Of U.S. Economic Data, Optimistic, Like The Earlier Last Week The United States In The Second Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) During The Accident On The Trim, Etc.

Is One Of The Focus Of The Report Is Impressive, The Euro Short Positions Rise Again, Rose To 204646, As Traders Expected The European Central Bank Will Soon Expand Further Stimulus To Support The Economy Of The Euro Area. A Reuters Poll Of The International Monetary Market (International Monetary Market) Against The Yen, The Dollar Is The Total Position According To Its, The Euro, The Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar And Australian Dollar Calculated The Net Position Of Six Major Currencies.

In Addition, At Present There Are Signs That A Growing Number Of Market Participants Is Positioning In Advance For The Fed To Raise Interest Rates Next Year.

A Monthly Survey Showed That European Asset Managers Cut The Stock Proportion In August, Because In The United States Will Raise Interest Rates Expected Prompted Many Investors Take Profits; But At The Same Time, The Share Price Is Still In Close To A Record High.

Long A Reuters Poll Of 11 European Investment And Fund Managers Found That The Equilibrium Of The Portfolio Average Suggested Ratio Fell To 45.7% From 49% A Month Ago, For The Lowest Since September 2013. But Equity Ratio Drop Benefit Alternative Investments, Hedge Funds, Private Equity And Commodities Such As The Ratio Of Alternative Investment From 5.6% To 7.2%. And Real Estate Ratio From 0.5% To 1.7%.

ING Investment Management, Investment Portfolio Expert Steven Steyaert, Said The Conflict Ukraine Geopolitical Threat To Add To The Federal Reserve (FED) Will Tighten Monetary Policy Soon Speculation, Shares Of The Company To Adopt The New View.

Obviously, In The Step Into The Era Of Golden Nine Silver Ten, As The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Expected In Investors Gradually Deepening, Market Expectations Of Dollar Assets Such As Optimistic, Some Risk Assets May Be Tested, It Has To Do With The Past Few Years, The Market Pattern Of October 9 Quite The Opposite. However, Whether Such Expectations Can Eventually Around Market Pattern, And The Trend Of The Market Would Eventually Go, There Is No Doubt That Still Need To Wait For The Results Of Those Risk Events.

The Six Common Law Of The Financial Crisis

Carmen M. Reinhart And Kenneth S. Rogoff, Two Scholars In Asia, Africa, Europe Between 800 And 66 Countries And Regions In The History Of The Financial Crisis On The Basis Of Quantitative Analysis, Points Out That No Matter How Much Every Financial Crisis Looks Different, But In Fact Is Not. I Am In The Process Of Investigation Of The Us Subprime Crisis, Also Often Feel The Same Way. Among Them Some Observation Of Conclusion, Is Not Exclusive To The Subprime Mortgage Crisis. They Or Concealed Or Now In Different Historical Period Of All Kinds Of Financial Crisis, May Reflect The General Law Of The Financial Crisis.


First, The Financial Crisis Is Always Inevitable Happen, Over And Over Again. Observe The Western Economic History, Economic Cycle Inevitably Accompanied With Different Degree And Scope Of The Financial Crisis. 2007 Subprime Mortgage Crisis And The Thirties Of The 20Th Century After Great Depression Occurred In Major Technical Revolution, Undertake The Technology To Promote Economic Prosperity For A Long Period Of Time After The Inevitable Contraction, Embodies The Deep Influence Of Factors Of Production Change Periodically. Government And Policy Change Alternately With Periodic Characteristics, Public Policy Is Difficult To Beyond The Economic Situation And Public Opinion, Usually Tend To A Lot Of Financial Regulatory Policy Is Often Cyclical Swings Between Reinforcement And Relax. If More Deeply Investigation, The Financial Crisis Is Rooted In Human Instinct Defect. Innate Human Greed, Fear, Forgetfulness, Fluke And Mass Blind, Make The Economic And Financial Activities Whether Up Or Down Will Always Oversleep, The So-Called Rational Operation Is Always Out Of Reach. It Is From This Perspective, The Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Concludes That The Financial Crisis Is Inevitable, After A Period Of Sustained Boom, Human Nature Will Always Make The Mistake Excessive Speculation. So Don’T Fantasy Elimination Crisis, Also Need Not Fear The Crisis, The Most Important Is Prepared.

Second, The Liquidity Of The Assets Strength Determines The Length And Frequency Of The Cycle Of Economic Crisis. Asset Bubbles Is Never Absent A Prelude To The Financial Crisis. Before The Great Depression, The Dow Jones Industrial Average From 1920 To 1929, Has Experienced 10 Years Of Boom. Before The Subprime Crisis, The U.S. Real Estate Market In 1991-2009, With Nearly 20 Years Has Undergone A Complete Cycle. Again Pull A Little Far, Despite Speculation Madness Tulips Bubble Of Only Two Or Three Years Time, But From The Accumulation Of The Late 16Th Century Tulip Bubble Begins To Calculate Bubble Burst In 1637, Nearly 40 Years. A Shallow Investigation Concluded That The Strength Of The Underlying Asset Liquidity, The Faster The Bubble, The Shorter The Cycle Relatively, Conversely The Longer Cycle. Liquid Assets, Such As Money, Stocks, Small Cycle Is Usually 3 To 5 Years, Large Cycle In 10 Years Or So; Commodities, Real Estate, Such As Liquidity Is Strong, Small Cycle For 5 To 10 Years, Big Cycle Average Around 20 Years; Art And Rare Commodity Liquidity Is Weak, The Small Cycle For 10 To 20 Years, Usually Large Cycle In 30 Years Or So. At The Same Time, The Bubbles Are Always Directly Or Indirectly, Closely Related With The Money Supply, Interest Rate Policy, Loose Monetary Policy Will Greatly Accelerate The Formation Of Asset Price Bubble And Bust.

Third, The Financial Crisis Is A Highly Contagious, Relevance And Systemic. Although Small Events Is Often The Beginning Of The Outbreak Of The Financial Crisis, But Any Crisis Is Not A Single Factor Can Fully Explain, Also Is Not Formed Overnight, It Involves The Macroscopic Policies, Market Supervision, Industry Control, The Participants A Series Of Factors Such As Psychological Behavior. In The Modern Economic System, The Risk Of Financial Institutions Highly Correlation, And Spread Very Quickly. Individual Financial Institutions, Risk Will Affect The Counterparty, Clients And Other Similar Institutions, Often From Slow To Fast, From Small To Large, Rapid Expansion. Once Involved With A Broad Range Of Associated Large Financial Institutions, Will Cause Huge Impact To Originally Fragile Market Psychology, Market Operation Mechanism And Market Panic Psychology Mutually Reinforcing, Intensifying Financial Market Turmoil, Enlarge The Market Risk, Eventually Form A Systemic And Comprehensive Crisis. So Must Learn To Observe And Grasp The Systemic And Relevance Of Financial Risk, Liquidity When Important Individual Risk Rescue As Soon As Possible, To Cut Off The Crisis Information Transmission Channels Between The Financial Institutions, To Avoid Systemic Comprehensive Risk Financial Fear.

Fourth, Determine The Financial Crisis The Market-Clearing Rate Duration And Recovery Capability. After The Crisis, The Government In Dealing With The Policies And Reform Measures, As Well As A Variety Of Choices. Only Decisions Quickly, Act Decisively, The Powerful Execution Of Government Take Timely Bankruptcy Reorganization, Merger, Acquisition And Reorganization, Government Took Over, Really Strong Men DuanWan, Scraping The Bone Healing, Poison, The First Time To Deal With Outbreak Of Risk Of Financial Institutions, To Avoid The Risk Of Cancer Continued To Deteriorate And Diffusion, Win The Recovery Of The Financial System And New Life. The Subprime Crisis In The United States Government Timely Launch Of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) To Buy Non-Performing Assets Of Financial Institutions, Direct Capital Injection To Take Over Fannie And Freddie, Promote Financial Institutions To Buy Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, For Many Institutions Including Lehman Brothers Filed For Bankruptcy Protection. Part Though Controversial, But This A Series Of Government Action In A Timely Manner Cleanly Disposal Problems, Boost Market Confidence, To Inhibit The Proliferation Risks, For The U.S. Financial System As Soon As Possible To Get Rid Of The Crisis And Achieve Economic Recovery Has Played A Positive Role. In Japan After The Economic Bubble Burst In The Early 1990 S, The Japanese Government’S Slow Response, For The Disposal Of Non-Performing Assets Of Relatively Conservative, In Quite A Long Time To Take The Mask, The Attitude Of The Delay, For Financial Institutions Has Been Paralyzed, Constantly Playing Infusion Bag Or Bottle To Prevent Its Bankruptcy, There Is No Timely Thoroughly Cleared Out The Bad Assets, Emerged A Large Number Of Zombie Banks And A Zombie Enterprise Efficiency Is Very Low, Contributed To The Economic Decline, Eventually Lost 20 Years Of Bitter Fruit.

Fifth, The Government In The Response To The Financial Crisis. Financial Crisis Has Universality, Objectivity, But By Deepening The Understanding Of The General Law About The Financial Crisis And Grasp, The Government Can Improve The Predictability And Effectiveness Of The Financial Crisis. The Government Can Establish Early Warning Mechanisms To Prevent, Deal With The Crisis Of Policy Reserves, Guide Market Expectations And Easing Social Panic; Decisive Take All Kinds Of Measures To Cut Off The Crisis Associated And Transmission Channel, Less Intensity Of Crisis; By Temporary Regulatory Intervention And Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Other Financial Policy Instruments Delay Or Transfer The Crisis, To Gain Time And Space. After The Outbreak Of The Subprime Crisis, As A Senior Expert On The Great Depression, The Then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Draw Experiences And Lessons From The Great Depression In The Government’S Response To, And To Advocate Active Monetary Policy, Through The Round Of “Quantitative Easing” Massive Injection Of Liquidity To The Market, At The Same Time With The Then Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, The New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner And Others Creative Planning And Implementation Of A Series Of Crisis Rescue Package, Comprehensively Promote Financial Reform, Positive Results Have Been Achieved. During The Great Depression, The Dow Jones Index Spent 26 Years To Return To Pre-Crisis Levels; After The Subprime Crisis, The Dow Jones Index In Just 5 Years Walked Out Of The Haze, And Hit A Record High. That Means The Government Effectively Cope With Crisis Can Reduce Damage, Make The Economic And Financial System Faster Response To Crisis And Restore Vigor And Vitality.

Sixth, The Financial Crisis Is The Comprehensive Reform Of The Rare Opportunity. Every Time After The Financial Crisis Will Produce A New Reform, Tend To Produce The Most Profound Reform In The Most Serious Crisis. Since The Great Depression, The United States Government Jolt, Severe Rectify Bank And Securities System, Established The Financial Separate Operation And Supervised Respectively, The Basic Framework For The U.S. Financial System Specification Development Laid A Solid Foundation. After The Subprime Crisis, The U.S. Government Comprehensively Promote Financial Reform, Especially The Dodd – Frank Act (Dodd – Frank Act), Is Seen As Following The Great Depression Of The Glass-Steagall Act (Glass – Steagall Act) Promulgated Since Most Profound Influence On American Financial Regulatory Reform Bill, Since The 1930 S First Major Revision Of The U.S. Financial System. American Proverb: Before Not Completely Broken, Don’T Repair. Huge Damage And Impact Of Crisis, The Reversed Transmission Government Decision-Making Departments, The Market Main Body, The Social Public To Avoid The Policy Stance, Ideological Differences, Political Interests, From The Pain Of The Formation Of Strong Will And Push Forward The Reform Of Consensus And Rapidly Promote The Reform Of The Struggling At Ordinary Times. Can Only Hurt The Deeper Reform More Firmly, More Thoroughly. Once The Crisis Is Calm, The Government And The Society Are Easy To Pain Is Forgotten Where Gain Follows, The Differences In Decision-Making, Resistance To Intensify Reform, Social Contradictions And Problems Will Be Delayed. So In A Sense, The Crisis Is To Reform The Best Booster, A Crisis Is A Reform Is Transient, Not Miss An Important Opportunity.

Ukraine Crisis To Reviving The Violent Storm The Two Sides Antagonists Deadlock

FX168 News On Thursday (August 28) Change Situation In Russia And Ukraine Once Again Attracted The Attention In Financial Markets, Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws According To The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine’S Behavior Has Occurred, It Calls For Ukraine’S National Security And Defense Committee Held A Meeting To Discuss The Next Steps Immediately. Because Of The Russian Invasion (Ukraine) And Cancel The Visit To Turkey.

Ukraine’S Prime Minister, And Adopt New G (Arseny Yatseniuk) On Thursday (August 28) Called For The United States, The European Union And The Group Of Seven (G7) To Freeze The Assets Of The Russians, Until Russia Withdraw Troops From The Territory Of Ukraine.

At A Government Meeting, The Mining Newkirk, Request The United States, The European Union And G7 Frozen Russian Assets And Funds, Until The Country’S Armed Forces, Equipment And Branches Out Of Ukraine.

(Stock Market Performance, USA)

After The Incident, The Russian Stock Market Collapsed And The Rouble, Russian Debt Insurance Costs Rose To A Two-Month High. Once The U.S. Stock Market Decline, And The Gold And Silver, Then Released In The United States Under The Stimulus Of Positive GDP, U.S. Stocks To Return To Rally, And Although Gold And Silver Loss Some Gains, But To Lay A Rebound Pattern.

(Foreign Exchange Market)

Ukraine Accused The Russian Invasion Russia And The West For Wu Crisis Control

Ukraine On Wednesday Accused Russia Of Eastern Ukraine Has Launched A New Round Of Military Invasion, The Outside World On The President’S Talks On Tuesday Or Become Two Countries For Five Months To Ukraine’S Crisis Turning Point Expected To Dissipate Quickly.

Although Russia Has Repeatedly Denied, But The Country’S Direct Support Of Ukraine Pro-Russian Separatists, Western Governments Have Prompted Sanctions Against Russia, With Russia (600558, Shares) In The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), The Tension Between Ascend To The Height Of The Cold War Did Not See. (American Satellites Photographed The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Team)

Andriy Ukrainian Military Spokesman Lysenko, According To A Team Of Russian Soldiers In Armoured Vehicles And Trucks Across The Border To Ukraine, Enter The Uri Amvrosiyivka East Town. Distance To Ukraine On Monday, Not Far From The Location Of The 10 Russian Soldiers Captured.

Ukraine Security Forces Said In A Statement, In The East Also Detained In Addition A Russian Soldier, He Has Admitted His Troops To The Separatist Rebels Provides Military Support.

At Horlivka And Ilovaysk

Lysenko Said, The War In The Two Towns, Government Forces Have Killed About 200 Separatists, And To Destroy Tanks And Missiles. He Said In The Past 24 Hours, 13 Ukraine Soldiers Have Been Killed, 36 People Were Injured.

Novy Vzglyad Didn’T Immediately Respond To The Invasion Of Charges. Russia Denied Providing Weapons And Troops To Help The Rebels And Said Monday Arrested Were Accidentally Broke Into Unmarked Border Region.

The Middle Of The Night In The Belarus Capital Minsk Talks It Seems Some Progress Has Been Made To The Armistice. According To The Data, This War Led To More Than 2200 People Were Killed, Not Including The Horse Boat In July In Rebel-Held Areas 298 Victims Of The Crash.

, According To The Ukrainian President Polo Draws Will Establish Emergency Guidelines For Cease-Fire With The Rebels. Russian President Vladimir Putin Said The Ceasefire Terms To Ukraine To Formulate, But Russia Will Help Build Trust Situation.

But Ukraine On Wednesday, According To New Allegations About Russia Center Plays The Role Of The Dispute Remains Unresolved.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’S Spokesman Steffen Seibert Said In A Statement, Ms Merkel And Mr Putin Said, When On The Phone To Clarify About The Russian Army And Invaded The Territory Of Ukraine.

Seibert Said, Must On The Recent Reports On Russian Soldiers Into The Territory Of Ukraine To Explain, She Stressed Russia’S Primary Responsibility Is To Alleviate The Situation, On Its Own Territory.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), A Senior Foreign Officials Spoke On Condition Of Anonymity, Said Russia’S Support For The Rebels More And More Open.

I Think We May Be Able To See A Recent Shift, Support From The Form Of Concealment, Fuzzy, Can Deny That, Frank And Clear, The Only Thing Not Clear Is Russia, They Said No Such Thing, The Diplomat Said.

He Said That The Region’S Weapon System Is More And More Excellent, Including SA – 22 Surface-To-Air Missiles, System Is More Advanced Than That Of SA – 11. Many Western Officials Suspect That The Rebels Shot Down The Horse With SA – 11 System.

The Main Rebels Accused Russia Of America Operations

The United States Said On Wednesday That Russia’S Invasion Of Eastern Ukraine Border Again, Show To Russia’S Dominant Offensive Action In Ukraine May Have Two Towns.

The White House Spokesman Josh Earnest Said The Military Action In Ukraine And Russia Will Unfold In Other Destructive Military Activities.

Ukraine National Security Department Announcement Said On Wednesday Night, Has Been In The Eastern Province Of Ukraine Lugansk Arrested A Rostov Region From The Russian Border Garrison Soldiers.

Announcement, When Questioned, The Soldier Said That The Unit In Which He Is Responsible For Carrying Arms And Ammunition To Wu Rebels, Including BM – 21 Grad Multiple Rocket Launch System, And Armored Personnel Carriers.

The East Ablaze In April, A Month Ago Russia Annexed Ukraine’S Crimean Peninsula, Respond To The Ukraine To Overthrow President Pro-Russian Action.

Political Crisis Has Prompted The United States And The European Union Sanctions Against Russia, Involving Financial, Oil, And National Defense And Other Fields; Russia Has Banned The Import Of Food, Most Western Countries To Fight Back. A Trade War Could Lead To A Russian Into Recession, And Kill The Europe’S Economic Recovery.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Sergei Lavrov) Said That Russia Does Not Want To Trade Impasse Deteriorating Even Further. He Said In A Speech To Students, We Have No Intention In Confrontation With The West, Sanctions Or Manufacturing The Deadlock.

He Said, The Next Step, The Contact Group Will Meet In Minsk, But Gave No Timetable. Contact Group By Rebels From Russia, Ukraine’S Government, Ukraine And The Organization For Security And Cooperation In Europe (OSCE) Representatives.

The Rebels Said Will Not Give Up Independent

A Rebel Leaders Oleg Tsaryov Wrote On Facebook, He Welcomed The Minsk, The Outcome Of The Talks But Separatists Who Won’T Give Up For Eastern Ukraine, They Call It The Novorossiya Independent (Russia).

He Said That Mr Putin’S Efforts For Peace Process, The Real Breakthrough.

But, He Adds, Must Understand The Outside World, Only In The Case Of Novorossiya Representative To Participate In, Is It Possible To Get Real Ease Tensions. We Don’T Allow Someone Carrying Us Secretly Decide Our Fate.

Now We Are Calling For Independence. We Do Not Believe Ukraine’S Leadership, Also Don’T See Themselves As Part Of Ukraine. We Have Armed Forces Is The Assurance Of Its Own Security, We Will Decide His Own Destiny.

Ukraine’S Prime Minister, And Adopt New G (Arseny Yatseniuk), Said The Country Needs The Help Of Practical, NATO Joint Summit To Be Held Next Month To Make Big Decision. Further Highlight The Ukrainian Government Doesn’T Believe Russia.

He Said That He Had Heard That The Russian Plan To Stop This Winter Supply Gas To Europe. Russia’S Energy Minister, Will This As Nonsense.

Russia In June For Pricing And Debt Dispute Cut Off Gas Supplies To Ukraine, But Mr Putin On Tuesday After The Talks, Said He And Polo Draws Have Agreed To Resume Talks.

The Eu Energy Commissioner Urban Oettinger (Guenther Oettinger), According To Russia, Ukraine And The Eu Tripartite Consultation Will Be Held In Moscow On Friday.

Geographical And Technical Flat Period Will Dominate Policy

Abstract: The Experiences On Friday (September 5) Of The Non-Agricultural Data In August After The Accident, This Week Will Go Into The Quiet Period Of The Fed’S Interest Rate Decisions, Although The Market Fluctuated Monday, But Still Maintained The Inertia Down Trend. 1275 For Gold, And For The Silver 3840 Two Key Position Has A Larger Resistance.

Fundamental Analysis

On Monday The Market News And Policy Face And Not A Lot Of Important Events, First On The Geopolitical, Although The Ukrainian Crisis Of Ukraine And Eastern Ukraine Pro-Russian Forces, Has Agreed To A Cease-Fire, But Shortly After The Agreement Signed, In The Eastern Ukrainian City Of Shelling Incident, The International Gold Market Rebounded Slightly. But As The Scottish Independence Referendum Poll Shows More And More To Support Independent, The Euro Against The Dollar Falls, The Dollar Index Record Again, The International Gold Market Therefore Under Pressure And Quickly Fell, And Hit A New Low.

In Addition, Belongs To The Quiet Period Before The Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision This Week, This Week The International Gold Market Is Expected To Mainly Affected By Geopolitical And Technical.

A Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart

Daily Gold Chart Shows, The Location Of The 1275 Is Still Important, One Is The Lower Limit Of 1275 Belongs To The Early Intensive Area, 2 It Is The Early Stage Of The Small High Cycle On The Rebound, Also Near 1275. As Long As The Market In 1275, Bear Market Remains The Same.

Spot Gold Strategy: To Operate. If Insist Short Train Of Thought, After The Market To New Lows, Rebounded To Near 1264 Blocked, Can Open Air Or Additional Empty Single Again. The Target Of 1240.

Support: 1240 1235 1230

Resistance: 1275 1287 1290

Spot Silver Daily Chart

Spot Silver Day Online, Can See Clearly That The Market Bear Market, MACD Indicators Into The Low State Of Passivation, This Often Means That Dip Trends Will Continue, And Does Not Appear Short Power Failure.

Spot Silver Operation Strategy: The Empty Single Continued To Hold, The Market Rebounded To Near 3790 Blocked, Can Open Air Again. Target 3745, Stop 3745.

Support: 3745 3730 3690

Resistance: 3827 3840 3890


Daily Chart Spot Copper

Spot Copper, Chart, The Market Over Small Cycle Level Consolidation Trend, A Rally To Mingle Line. But The Rapid Fall Of Market On Monday Night, Makes The Day Online Drew A Long Shanghai Small Yang Line, The K Line Of Shanghai Area, Become An Important Reference For Our Range.

Spot Copper Operation Strategy: Can Open More Appropriately, Near 42990 Goals, 43700, Stop 42850.

Support: 42990 42850 42650

Resistance: 43500 43800 44400

Today’S Important Data:

Time Before The Event Importance Value Expected Value

09:30 Australia August Employment Change High – 00300

A Stronger Dollar And Promote A Large Number Of Technical Trading Gold Prices Tumbled Over $20

On Tuesday (September 2) And The Decline Of The Dollar And Crude Oil Under The Influence Of Technical Selling Prices Fell More Than $20, Fell More Than 1.7%, Dropped From Above $1280 An Ounce To Above $1260 An Ounce. Weeks After Sanya, Gold Prices Near $1266 An Ounce.

On Tuesday, The Gold Market Trading Volume Is Very Big, And The 1.7% Decline Was The Biggest One-Day Fall Since The Middle Of July.

In The Eastern United States Time At 6:30 In The Morning To 6:40 In Ten Minutes, The Gold Price Collapses Like Snowball, Traders Said, At $1275 An Ounce Level Of Technical Support And On August 21, Low Level Was Below $1273 An Ounce, Trading Volume Has Soared To More Than 10000 Hands.

Markets Remain The European Central Bank Is Expected To Take Measures, And The U.S. Manufacturing And Construction Spending Data Has Pushed The Dollar Against The Euro.

The Institute For Supply Management (ISM), According To Data From The Us ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Rose To 59.0, A Level Since March 2011.

Markit Data Compiled Institutions, According To The United States On August Manufacturing Expansion Continued Strong Momentum, And The Fastest Since April 2010, For Employment Index Is The Fastest Growth Rate Since March Of Last Year.

The U.S. Department Of Commerce (DOC), According To A Report In July Construction Spending Rose 1.8% In March, Higher Than Expected 1.1%, To An Annual Rate Of $981.3 Billion, And For The Highest Level Since May 2012.

Sharps Pixley Gold Trading At Ross Norman Said: As The Dollar Hit A High Level, The Gold Is Affected, It Is Obviously Happened This Time. Political And Economic Has A Lot To Worry About, But People Are Used To The Bad News, So They No Longer Have An Impact On Prices.


On Tuesday, According To Data On The Comex Volume Is About 50% Higher Than That Of Average 30 Days.

In The Market Of The European Central Bank’S Monetary Policy Is Expected, Under The Condition Of The Euro Against The Dollar Fell To The Lowest Level 1 Year.

Partner Of LOGIC Advisors, Bill O ‘Neill Said, A Stronger Dollar Is Obviously Bad For Commodities, To Offset The Effect Of Regional Disputes.

Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws (Petro Poroshenko), Warned On Monday That If Russian Troops Continue To Support The Pro-Russian Rebels, Is Facing The Risk Of An All-Out War Between The Two Countries, Europe And The United States Has Threatened To Russia’S New Sanctions Measures. The Pentagon Said On Tuesday That More Than Ten Thousand Russian Troops Stationed In The Ukraine Border.

SPDR Gold ETF Shed 1.8 Tons On Monday, Total Holdings Into 793.2 Tons.

(Gold 30 Minutes Figure Image FX168 Business Network)

The Situation In Russia And Ukraine Deteriorated Sharply Safe Havens Generally To Rise

On Thursday, August 28), According To Media Reports In Eastern Ukraine Situation Deteriorated Sharply, The Euro Against The Dollar To Refresh Low To 1.3169, The Dollar Index Rebounded Higher Refresh Intraday High Of 82.54, The International Spot Gold Prices Rose 1%, To An Intraday High Of $1295.50 An Ounce. On Thursday, August 28) Ukraine Safety Defense Committee Said: Ukrainian Troops Near The New Asia Speed, Shelling By Russian Troops. Ukrainian Announced Russian Invasion, The Situation Is Now Upgrade Signs. Reported That Russia’S Armored Fighting Vehicles Only About 3 Km Distance Between Russia And Ukraine Border, Russian Soldiers Are Sitting On The Armored Personnel Carriers, Their Dusty, One Facial Injuries, One Of The Damaged Truck, And Was Pulling Ahead. Russian Soldiers And Vehicles Is Not Equipped With The Exact Military Flag, License Plate Has Been Removed, Part Of The Russian Soldiers Wearing White Armbands, Vehicles Marked Hickies. Russian Media Said, The Ukrainian Government Admitted That Loss Of Control Of The Novoazovsk Militia Called Lugansk Surrounding Areas Of Eastern Ukraine Offensive. Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws: Hold A Special Meeting Called On The UN Security Council And The European Union Council, To Discuss How To Solve The Donbass (Donbas, Namely The East) Situation. Foreign Media In Russia’S Southern Reporters Saw Russian Territory On A Configuration Red Star Of The Helicopter, The Helicopter Near An Unidentified Army. Ukraine’S Foreign Minister Said Authorities In Kiev And The West When It’S Bath Area (Donbas, Namely The East) The Situation To Discuss Response Mechanism. The U.S. Ambassador To The Osce Responded: Guide At The Mercy Of The Osce Observers By Russia, Ukraine Escalation Is Quite Worrying, America’S Promise Will Pay More Cost In Russia. The French President Francois Hollande Responded: Russia Ukraine Must Respect The Sovereignty, Or Face New Sanctions. Finland’S Ministry Of Defence Said: Russian Aircraft Violated The Finnish Airspace Thursday; This Is The Third Time Since Russia Plane Week Finland Airspace. On Thursday, August 28) The Euro Against The Dollar Fell To 1.3169, The Dollar Index Rebounded Higher Refresh Intraday High Of 82.54, A Safe-Haven Currency Yen And Swiss Franc Rallied Against The Euro, Traders Blamed It On Ukraine Russia Into The Comments. Russia Etf Index (Rather) Fell 2.7% In Pre-Market Trading. And When The Euro Against The Dollar By Beijing Time At 1.3184/86, The Dollar Index At 82.48/50, The Euro Against The Yen At 136.72/74, 1.2060/62 Of The Euro. Spot Gold At 1291.50/52.

Situation In Ukraine To Wake Gold Won Three Consecutive Yang Analysts Warn Rebound Is Short

Is Due To The Situation In Ukraine, And The Stock Market Fell Back, On Thursday (August 29) Gold Prices Rose For The Third Consecutive Trading Day, And Break Through $1290 An Ounce Level For A Time. On Friday, After Open, Fluctuations In The Price Near $1288 An Ounce.

But Analysts Say, Because The U.S. Economic Data Are Still Strong, So The Gold This Rally Could Be Short-Lived.

Ukraine’S President, Polo Draws On Thursday Denounced The Russian Troops Invaded, Said The Situation In Eastern Ukraine Is Deteriorated. NATO, NATO (NATO) A Military Officer Said Thursday That More Than One Thousand Russian Military Personnel Current Activities Within The Territory Of Ukraine. This Show Russia To Ukraine In The Level Of Military Action.

On Thursday, Gold Had About 1% Of The Increase, But Since Then With Good Performance And U.S. Economic Data.

The U.S. Department Of Commerce Data Show That The United States In The Second Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Revised Annual Season Rate Increases By 4.2%, 3.9% More Than Expected. Mainly By The Enterprise Investment Recorded More Than Boost The Biggest Gain In More Than Two Years.

America, According To Data From The National Association Of Realtors Pending Home Sales Month After Seven Chinese Rose Adjustable Rate Climbed 3.3%, Its Biggest Monthly Jump Since August 2013, Is Expected To Grow By 0.5%.

The U.S. Department Of Labor Data Show That The United States On August 23, When The Jobless Claims Below Return To 300000 Levels, According To The Us Labour Market Recovery Is Good.

VTP Capital Andrey Kryuchenkov Said: The Market In Regional Dispute News From Ukraine To Wake Up, But Because Of Strong U.S. Economic Data And Didn’T Have Too Much Benefit.

Yesterday, According To Data On The Comex Trading A 30-Day Average About 20% Less.

Middle East Aspect, On Thursday, Iraqi Security Forces And Armed Kurdish North To The Occupation Of Iraq Nineveh Province Omar, Extreme Organization Of The Islamic State Of Iraq And The Levant Launch A Counterattack, Trying To Regain Control Of The Town And Its Surrounding Areas. Previously, Nineveh Province, Head Of The Parliament’S Energy Committee, Said The Kurdish Rebels Had Took Back The Province Ai For Mr. Luo And Bart Horse In Two Fields.

SPDR Gold ETF Holdings Did Not Change, Still Remain At 795.60 Tons.

(Gold 30 Minutes Figure Image FX168 Business Network)

The Paper Gold Prices Fall In Place At The Bottom Of The Unfit To Empty

Gold Cast The Net On September 3, The Paper Gold Prices Will Be Coming Late This Week The European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision And The United States Non-Farm Has Not Yet Arrived, Paper Gold Price Falls The Current. At Present Although European Economic Recovery To Adverse Market To Euro QE Is Looking Forward To, But The Meeting Is Expected To Launch The Probability Is Very Small.

Will Be Released On Friday August Non-Farm Payrolls Report, The United States Market Expectations And Employment Growth In 225000, Seven Months More Than 200000; The Unemployment Rate From 6.2% In July To 6.1% In June.

The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes Of July Be Hawks, Yellen’D In The Annual Meeting Of The Central Bank Said That If The Labour Market Recovery Is Still Faster Than Expected, Or Ascending Faster Than Expected Inflation, The Fed Could Raise Interest Rates, Interest Rates May Be Faster Ever Since. So The Non-Farm As Long As The Data Is Not Sharp Decline, So Still Bearish Paper Gold Prices.

In Addition, Non-Agricultural Data In The U.S. Economy Continues Phase Good Cases, Bad Paper Gold Price Is Still A Big Probability Event, Even The More Short Paper Gold Price Is Difficult To Change The Present Pattern Of Paper Gold Price Indication Of Cautious Optimism.

The Evening Paper Gold Price Operation Or To Last Night’S Fall 250 For High Resistance For Short, If The Rally Site 252 A Line So Short Term Will Be Below The Shock In 255.

Paper Gold Prices Temporarily In Shock At The Bottom Of The Range, The Current Paper Gold Price Is Definitely Not Suitable To Empty, Not To Break The 248 Would Leave Suspense To Non-Agricultural.

Short-Term Paper Gold Price Performance Shocks Probability Is Bigger, Whether Paper Gold Prices Temporarily In The Forefront, Currently In Wait-And-See Attitude, And Later Into The Operation.

Gold Cast Net (Http://Www.Cngold.Org) Gold Market, According To The Center Of Beijing Time 22:07, Paper Gold Real-Time Quotes At 250.02 Yuan Per Gram.

Weak Dollar Is Strong, Stronger The Referendum Draws Near To The Pound

On Monday (Sept. 8) Pound Against The Dollar Directly Jump Empty Low Open, Online Shows That Such A Large Gap, Strongly Stimulate The Nerve Of The Sterling Bulls. British Media On September 7, The Latest Public Opinion Polls Show That Support For Scottish Independence Came The Proportion Of The Independent, Lead For The First Time. As The Scottish Referendum, Independent And The Separatist Camp, The Referendum There Is A Big Uncertainty, May Make The Sterling Exchange Rate Fluctuations.

Foreign Exchange Market Is A Troublous Times Recently, The Situation In Russia Continues To Market Nerve, September 8, Eu Officials Said That The European Commission Has Agreed To A Fresh Round Of Strengthening Sanctions Against Russia Rate Agreement, And Work Out The Detailed Sanctions; The European Central Bank Also Had Just Announced A New Round Of Easing; Dollar Interest Rates Expected Worse Constantly Pushing Up The Dollar; Scotland There Is Not Quiet, Make To Independent, Very Great Shock To The Pound.

The Dollar Index

On September 8, The Dollar Index Continued To Rise, U.S. Treasury Yields Higher Dollar Strength, Although Friday’S Payroll Data Is Far Less Than Expected, But Also Difficult To Eliminate Long Dollar’S Enthusiasm, The Market’S Good Performance In The U.S. Economy Is A Quite An Optimistic Attitude.

Yesterday, To Good Economic Data Continues To And The Rest Of The World Economy Contrasts, And The Fed Report Also Showed Its Policy Would Be To Squeeze In Then Surprised Everyone, Direction, This Makes The Market Mood Change, So The Influence Of Bad Non-Farm Payrolls Data On Friday Is Further Proved To Be A Flash In The Pan.

Released On Monday, U.S. Consumer Credit According To The Country’S Consumer Credit During The Month July Unexpectedly Sharp Increase Of $26.01 Billion, Far Beyond The Previous Forecasts From All Walks Of Life, And Hit A Record High Since November 2011. Whereas Consumer Credit Is One Of The Important Barometer Of Economic Activity In The United States. While Disaggregated Data Also Showed That The Credit Card Revolving Credit And Auto Loans And Student Loans And The Revolving Credit Rose Sharply, Heralding The Rise In The Overall Economic Activity, In This Case, The Fed Naturally Have More Reason To Start Raising Interest Rates Ahead Of Schedule, And Investors Are More Willing To Believe In August Non-Farm Payrolls Unexpectedly Only An Increase Of 142000 People Of Bad Data Is Caused By Factors Other Than Routine, For The Overall Economic Outlook.

The San Francisco Fed Report Also Illustrates The Situation On The Day. Officials In The Report Pointed Out That In The Near Future For Quite Some Time, May Be Revealed That The Situation Of Low Volatility In Financial Markets, Investors From All Walks Of Life Are Likely To Underestimate The Speed Of The Fed’S Future Interest Rates. The Fed Could Soon Caught Everybody Expected To Start Much Earlier Than Expected Into The Tightening Cycle.

And U.S. Economic Data Compared With Overseas Markets Also To Strengthen The Expectations Of A Stronger Dollar. In Addition To The Continued Weakness Of The Euro Zone Economic, The British Market Recently Widely Influenced By Scottish Independence Referendum Accident, Once A Referendum On Scottish Independence Ended, So Other People Tend To Separate Areas Within The Eu, Such As Spain’S Catalonia, Could Also Follow Up, This Makes The European Common Currency Movements Under Pressure. And Also Difficult To Optimism In The Asia Pacific Market Economic Performance, China’S Trade Account Data Showed That Import And Export Performances Are Not As Good As Expected, Or Suggest That The Real Estate Market Slump Has Spillover To The Real Economy, While Japan’S GDP Data Continue To Slump, According To Mr Abe Economic Effect Is Not As Good As Expected, This Makes The Dollar In The Global Scope Further Consolidate The Status Of The Monolith.

Technology On The Daily Chart Shows The Dollar Index Rising Trend In Good Condition, The Later Is Expected To Continue To Go Up. Support In 84, Resistance At 84.50.

(The Dollar Index Chart Moves)

Sterling Against The U.S. Dollar

On September 8Th, Sterling Weakness Last Days, Fell To Their Lowest Level In Nearly 10 Months. Intraday Data Is Very Limited, The Scottish Independence Referendum Become The Focus Of The Market. Few British Economic Data To Be Released This Week, As A Result Of The Referendum Date Draws Near, Independent And The Separatist Camp, May Make Sterling Fluctuations.

Pounds In Scotland Independent Approval Rating Above 50% For The First Time, After The Pound Against The Dollar Under Pressure, Always If Scottish Independence, The Pound Will Face A Series Of Questions, And Exchange Rate Are Likely To Fall To 5% – 10%.

The British Media To Do This Weekend In Favour Of Independence Of Scotland’S Approval Rating Rose To 51% According To The Survey, The Pound Jump Empty Opened Sharply Lower On Monday, After The Pound Continued Downward, To The New York Times, The Pound Has Fallen Against The Dollar Days Nearly 200 Points. On September 18, Will Be A Scottish Referendum On Election Day, Because The Current Is For And Against Independent Is Nearly Flat, The Result Of Great Uncertainty, This Will Make The Risk Of Facing A Sterling Swings, Rise Or Fall Of Any One Party Ratings Will Push Sterling Or Crash.

Scottish Independence Referendum Although Polls Support Number More Than Once Against The Number, But The Result Is So Close, So There Is Still Great Uncertainty. This Means That The Row Over The Scottish Independence Referendum And Polls Will Continue To Lead The Sterling In The Short Term, Also Include Other Financial Markets. Even If The Final Independence Referendum Failed, The Pound May Fall Further In The Short Term, Given Was Below 1.6200, 1.60 Can Be Tested In A Short Time.

Data Side, Britain Announced Index Data, The Data In Line With Expectations. Specific Data Showed That British August Halifax Seasonally Adjusted Index Month After 0.1% Growth Rate, Is Expected To Grow By 0.1%.

Technically, The Pound Against The Dollar In Daily Chart, Exchange Rate Downward Trend In Good Condition. Technical Indicators Below The MACD Line And Signal Line Fell To Zero Axis, Explain Price Trends Bearish, And Relative Strength Index RSI (14) Fell To Below The Equilibrium Position, 50 Price Dynamics Bearish. Technically, According To The Pound Against The Dollar Is Expected To Continue To Fall. In Addition, Investors Should Pay Special Attention To The Resistance Of Jump Vacancies Mouth Near 1.6230.

(Sterling Chart Moves)

China’S Response To The European Central Bank Unexpectedly Cut Interest Rates Wants The Eu To Cooperate

On September 5, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang On The European Central Bank Said The Latest Easing Monetary Policy, Wants The Eu To Act Responsibly, The Correct Monetary Policy, In The Same Boat.

On September 4, Local Time, The European Central Bank (ECB) Decision Since The 10Th Of This Month Will All Interest Rates Reduce 10 Basis Points, The Benchmark Interest Rates To 0.05%, To A Record Low. At The Same Time, The European Central Bank Also Issued A Package Of Asset Purchases.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Sudden Move Shocked The Market.

Qin In The Foreign Ministry Regular Press Conference Questions, Said The Eu Is The World’S Major Economies, In The Aspect Of Promoting World Economic Recovery And Growth Have Important Responsibilities.

We Hope That The Eu Can Starting From Promoting Sustainable Global Growth, Act Responsibly, Proper Monetary Policy. Qin Gang Said.

Qin Gang Pointed Out That At The Time Of The Eu Sovereign Debt Crisis, Other Countries To Give The Support And Help In The European Union. This Spirit Of Sharing Weal And Woe, We Should Continue To Be Holding.

On September 4, Local Time, The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Said, This Is The Last Time The European Central Bank To Cut Interest Rates.

Is Worth Pondering, After 6 Months, The European Central Bank Cut The Benchmark Interest Rate From 0.25% To 0.15%, Becoming The First Introduction Of Negative Interest Rates Of The World’S Major Central Banks. Mario Draghi Has Said At The Time, Cut The Lower Limit Has Been Reached.

Draghi Also Announced Two New Project, Will Buy Euro-Denominated Covered Bonds (Covered Bonds) And Asset-Backed Securities (Asset – Anyway: Spreads Over Gse-Backed Loans Securities).

Draghi Refused To Disclose The European Central Bank’S Bond Purchases, But He Said The European Central Bank To Buy Bonds As Well As Providing A Four-Year Loans, In Order To Push The Size Of Its Balance Sheet To 1 Trillion Euros, This Is Since Early 2012 Has Not In Some Level.

The European Central Bank To Above Action To Save The Euro Zone From The Economic Stagnation, Analysts By Surprise.

At Present, The European Central Bank Face Huge Pressure And Revive The Economy Of The Euro Area But In Manufacturing Output Slowed, Inflation Fell To 0.3% In These Five Years Under The Condition Of Low, Draghi Can Display Space Is Not Large.

The BBC Commentator And Editor Robert Perth, Described The Move As Put All Your Eggs In One Basket. , He Argues, The Euro Zone Is Sliding Into A Devastating Deflation Down Channel, But The European Central Bank Can Do? Now It Is Almost Out Of Ammunition.

In Fact, The European Central Bank And A Possible Option Is To Implement Comprehensive QE (Quantitative Easing) By The Federal Reserve, The Central Bank To Buy Sovereign Debt From Creditors.

However, Members Of The European Central Bank (ECB) Divisions Of The Option.

Draghi Said They Talked About Whether To Take Quantity Wide Policy, We Should Do Some Council Members Say More, Others Believe That Should See What Effect, So The European Central Bank Adopted A Compromise.

In View Of The European Central Bank Cut Rates, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Christine Lagarde Said In A Statement Is Very Welcome. But The Bundesbank Against The European Central Bank To Cut Interest Rates.

The European Central Bank’S Surprise Move Has Affected The Market. On September 4, The Euro Fell To $1.2996 Against The Dollar, To Its Lowest Level Since July 2013, Is The First Time Ever Fell To $1.3, And Set The Eurozone Crisis Since The Second Half Of 2011 The Biggest One-Day Fall Since The Most Critical Moment.

Is Affected By The News, European Stocks Rebound, The Stoxx Europe 600 Index Rose 1.1%, Germany’S DAX 30 Index Rose 1%, The French CAC 40 Index Rose 1.7%.

FOMC Meeting The Upcoming The Dollar Is Yet To Be Confirmed

Dollar Index Recent Rally Overwhelming Description, Only Two Months Accumulated Upward By Close To 6%, The Dollar Against A Basket Of Currencies To Rise The Common Factor Is That Monetary Policy Is Expected The Dollar To Form The One-Way, To Attract More Foreign Investors.

The Fed Is Coming To An End In October QE Process, Now The Focus Of The Discussion Is Just The Timing Of The Rates, Whereas Other Countries, The European Central Bank (ECB) And The Bank Of Japan (BOJ) Still Has A Clear Tendency Of Doves, And The British Political Uncertainty Also Makes The Pound Is A Severe Lack Of Attraction. Meanwhile, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Most Economic Data Released To Soft.

Next Week’S FOMC Meeting Expected Early Fermentation

Next Week, The Federal Reserve Will Hold A Meeting Again, Investors’ Expectations Quickly Adjust About Increase Point In The United States. Many Investors Bet That The Interest Rate Difference Between America And The Euro Zone Will Continue To Expand, Which Not Only Has A Negative Deposit Rate And Distance Of Large-Scale Asset Purchases (QE) Is More And More Close.

The Two-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Near To Turn Over More Than Doubled To 0.56% This Year, Its Highest Since May 2011, By Contrast, The Two-Year German Yields Have Dropped To Minus 0.07%, And The Lowest Level Since January 2012.

Some Analysts Believe That The Expansion Of Europe And The United States Treasury Yields Will Create New Trade Opportunities, Namely Because The Fed Will End In October Asset Purchase Plan, This Will Make Us Treasury Yields Rise, Improve The Treasury Bonds Appeal, And Accelerated Flow To The Asset Class, At The Same Time Make The Dollar Exchange Rate Higher.

Treasury Yields Rise And Fall In The Us Stock Market Shows Investors Are Still Digesting The Fed Tightening Monetary Policy Expected Future Process, Even If It Does Not Mean That Market That The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates Soon, But The Monthly Purchase Action Will End In October, And The Authorities Won’T Seek Monetary Stimulus Of The Heart Deeply Views Are Expected To Have

Traders Have Long Overlooked American Prospects To Raise Interest Rates, Bond Information Display Market Is Expected By The End Of 2015 Or 2016 Will Raise Interest Rates, That Is Less Than The Fed’S Own Forecasts. But Anyway, At Least Short-Term Us Treasury Yields In The Past Few Months There Is An Obvious Rise, Even Though The Us New Payrolls Last Week Showed A Sharp Decline, Still Can’T Shake The Rally.

Chicago Futures Brokerage Company R.J. O “Brien Managing Director John Brady Said, Before The Market Is Expected In September The Wording Of The FOMC Meeting The Fed Will Change In Some Hawks, But Poor August Non-Farm Payrolls Figures Released Last Week, After Such A Change Could Be Delayed.

Columbia Management Fund Manager Zach Pandl Said That The Federal Reserve Will Begin To Release In September To Raise Interest Rates Rather Than December Speech, Because If The Fed To Raise Interest Rates In March Next Year, Must Prepare The Market Standing Time. Pandl Think The Fed Will Change The Wording In Next Week’S Meeting Of Possibility Is Very High.

Can The Rebound From The Dollar To Reverse Still Need To Watch

But From The Point Of A Greater Time Period, The Dollar’S Rise Can Be Defined As Inversion, Still Need Further Observation.

From The Perspective Of The Technical Indicators Are The Dollar Too Fast, Known As The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) The Kinetic Energy Of The Index At 76, More Than 70 The Some Traders As A Show A Level Of Assets Rise Too Much, Too Fast; At One Time, September 8, The Index Rose To 84, The Most Overbought Levels Since 2008.

Since 2012, The Dollar Index Has Experienced Several Similar Rebound, But There Are Two Factors Hindered The Rebound As Inversion. A U.S. Economic Recovery Is Weak, There Are Repeated, The Second Is The Euro Zone And Japan Economy Sustained Deflation And Credit Contraction Restricts Its Weaker Currencies.

These Two Factors Are Still The Rebound Constitute A Restriction Against The Dollar. Although The Weak Global Economy Could Not Prevent The Fed Into The Cycle Of Next Year, But Its Negative Effect About The U.S. Economy Will Restrict The Speed And The Fed To Raise Interest Rates. In Addition, The Euro Area And Japan’S Monetary Base And To What Extent Credit Monetary Expansion Can Improve The Impact On The Dollar Index Is Bigger.

European Economy Is Still In Deflation Pressure Increase, The European Central Bank Balance Sheet Continues To Shrink, The Euro Zone’S Credit Markets, Especially The Small And Medium-Sized Enterprise Credit Is Still Almost In The Frozen State. As Long As You Don’T Trigger A Systemic Crisis, Price Deflation, Credit Contraction Can Pose Certain Support To The Euro Instead. The European Central Bank Easing Existing In The Eurozone Credit Expansion. Its Future Launch QE More Likely, But Large-Scale Quantitative Easing Still Has A Lot Of Restrictions On Political And Legal, In The Short Term The Euro Large-Scale QE Is Still The Medium-Term Vision.

The Bank Of Japan Held Temporarily, Further Action Is Likely But Still Take Time. If The Future, The Above-Mentioned Two Aspects Limit Has Been Broken, The Dollar Index Is Expected To Be From Small Rebound To A Sharp Reversal.

This Week Also Has Is Worth To Pay Close Attention To U.S. Data

The Commerce Department On Wednesday (September 10), According To Data Released After Quarter Unexpected Atrophy, The Strong Rebound In The Second Quarter Of Economy. Today, According To The Wholesale Sales Rebounded In July, While Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Fell To A One-Year Low, Economic Opening In The Third Quarter Is Expected To Continue Strong Momentum, And This Provides The Retail Sales Figures Released By The Friday Will Be A Good Forecast.

Review Data, The Associated Press Said Affected By Sales Is Too Strong, U.S. Wholesale Inventories In July Monthly Growth Rate Lower Than Expected And The Inventory Dismal Performance Is Expected To Be Temporary Phenomenon, Because Of Strong Pull Next Month Wholesaler Wholesale Sales Month Rate Increase Inventories Intention; In Addition, The Increase Of Our Stationery Order, Also Reflects The U.S. Industrial Production And The Overall Economic Growth Trend Is Still Positive.

The U.S. Department Of Commerce Will Be In Beijing Time Friday (September 12) 20:30 Released August Retail Sales In The United States, The Market Is Expected To Last Month Rate Unchanged, The Expansion Of The Data Is Expected To Achieve 0.6%.

BK Asset Management Chief Currency Strategist Kathy Lien Said Yesterday, Although The Euro/Dollar On Tuesday (Sept. 8) Posted A Rebound, But The Dollar Is The Foreign Exchange Market Is The Most Beautiful Scenery, And Decide The Future Market Sentiment Data Will Be Released On Friday, Investors Look At Indicators Can Dispel The Haze In Non-Farm Payrolls Last Week.

To Master The Poll To Pounds Before The Referendum Long-Short Game Hard To Take

Foreign Exchange On September 12 – On Thursday, September 11 Pounds Sterling/Dollar Rebound, Days Exchange, Helped By New Internet Poll Boost From After Several Consecutive Trading Day Sharply Under Pressure.

Pollsters Survation Days Unveiled Their Latest Survey: Continuing Majority Against The Number Of Scottish Independence. Specific Investigation, According To Data Of The 1000 Respondents, Against The Number Of Scottish Independence Of Unchanged At 48%, A Toll On Support For The Scottish Independence Accounted For 1% To 1%.

The Two Biggest Banks In Scotland Royal Bank Of Scotland, Lloyds Bank Have Issued A Statement, If The Scottish Independence Choice, Will Be Forced To Transfer Part Of The Business To England. Covet The North Sea Oil And Gas Resources Is Independent Of The Actual Plan, Scotland But Economic Ties And Related Interest Is The Most Powerful Factors But On Scottish Independence.

Now, The Pound Afternoon To Still Full Of Uncertainty. Traders Said The Uncertainty Prompted Nervous Investors Such As Hedge Funds To Hedge Against Sterling Fluctuations. According To The Latest Data, Sterling/Dollar A Cycle Implied Volatility Rose To 11.725%, And High In July 2013. A Cycle Option Expires On September 18.

Many Investors Are Worried About, If The Scottish Independence, Britain Will Face More Debt And The Domestic Market To Reduce The Problem, It Could Hurt The Future Investment. More Debt Could Lead To Britain Ratings Downgrade And Capital Flight.


OCBC (OCBC Bank), An Analyst At Days, Said The GBP/Usd Is Still Lingering Doubts, It May Simply Be A Dead Cat Bounce, Rather Than The Root Of Bearish Change Tendency. Expected The Pound/Dollar Will Continue To Be Affected By The Scottish Independence Referendum Polls And Drives, Recent Rate Is Expected To Near A Line 1.6190 On Finishing.

On September 12 (Friday) In Early, Sterling/Dollar Levels Near 1.6260. GBP/Usd Continues The Rebound Since Low Of 1.6051 On Wednesday, And Ultimately To Yang Line Closed Up. Within Asia Pacific Time, Sterling/Dollar To 1.6255 For A Volatile Trading Near The Line.

FXStreet Foreign Exchange Analysts Point Out That Supported Sterling/Dollar To 1.6210, The Current Rebound To Near 1.6240. GBP/Usd For A Third Consecutive Days Of Gains, But Still Failed To Fill The Gap Opened This Week In Near 1.6300.

FXStreet Analysts Point Out That The Overbought Oversold Index Shows Neutral Zone At Present, The Trend Index Also Showed A Neutral.

Due To The Latest Poll, The Scottish Referendum Next Week Majority Support Unification. Survation Institutions, According To Data From The Poll In 1000 Respondents Opposed Scottish Independence Than Unchanged At 48%, The Number Of A Toll On Support For The Scottish Independence Accounted For 1% To 1%.

Analysts Said The GBP/Usd A Rise Of Nearly 200 Basis Points From Wednesday’S Low Of 1.6050, Above Resistance Further, In Turn, Can See 1.6270, 1.6290 And 1.6330; Support Levels, In Turn, Can See 1.6215, 1.6150 And 1.6050.

1 Hour Chart, Sterling/Dollar MACD Hovering At 15, And RSI Indicator Located Above 50, At The Same Time Rate Slightly Above The Level Of The Main Moving Average, Suggesting That The Short-Term Bullish.

(Source: GBP/Usd 60 Minutes Figure FX168 Business Network)

Geopolitical Risk Mr Buffett To Say

Nowadays, Almost Every Day About The Situation In Russia And Ukraine, The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Iraq Terrorist Groups And News Grabbing Headlines Of The Ebola Outbreak In West Africa. In The Global Geopolitical Shadow, U.S. Stock Futures Are Dull Moment, Investors Should Do? (More Financial Information, Click Here To Download The Wall Street See App)

Warren Buffett’S Advice Is: Retreat, In Retrospect, The First Looking To The Future Again.


The Worst Of The Financial Crisis In 2008, Warren Buffett Wrote In The New York Times Column, Remind People Bad Things Always Happen. He Wrote In His Column,

Small History Knowledge: The Great Depression, July 8, 1932, The Dow Jones Index Fell To A Record Low 41 Points. The Economy Continued To Deteriorate Until The President Roosevelt Took Office In March 1933, When The Stock Market Has Rebounded 30%. Or, To Recall The Early World War Ii, The United States In Europe And The Pacific Progress Is Not Very Well. Just Before The Allies Turn Things Around, The Stock Market Hit Bottom In April 1942. Look Again At The Beginning Of 1980 S, The Timing Of Buying Stocks Is The Ravages Of Inflation When Economic Downturn. In Short, Bad News Is A Close Friend Of Investors. With It, You Could Use Low Price To Buy America’S Future Prosperity.

In The Long Run, The Message Will Be Bullish Stock Market. In The 20Th Century, The United States Has Experienced Two World Wars And Several Large-Scale Military Conflict, The Great Depression And A Number Of Times Of Recession, The Oil Price Shocks, Flu, And The President Resigned Because Of The Scandal. Yet The Dow Rose To 66 From 11497.

In 1994, Mr. Buffett In A Letter To Berkshire Shareholders, Wrote

We Will Continue To Ignore The Political And Economic Forecasting, Because They Will Distract The Attention Of Investors And Businessmen, And Expensive. Thirty Years Ago, Nobody Could Have Foreseen The Vietnam War, Wage And Price Controls, Oil Shocks Twice, No One Can Predict The President’S Resignation, The Collapse Of The Soviet Union, And No One Will Know The Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Fell 508 Points, Or 2.8% To 17.4% Yields In Range.

However, Neither The Sensation Of Global Big Events Affect Benjamin Graham’S Investment Criteria, Also Have No Effect On Investors With Reasonable Price To Buy High Quality Assets. Imagine If We Were Unknown To Overcome Fear, Delay Or Change The Capital Allocation, We Will Cost Too Much. In Fact, We Often Can Cause Panic In Big Events When It Reaches The Top, The Most Cost-Effective To Buy And Sell. Fear Is The Enemy Of Zealots, Be A Friend Of The Basic Standards Comply With The Market.

Buffett Told Investors Two Things: First, No Matter How Bad The Situation, The Market Will Withstand Crisis Test; Second, Can Provide High-Quality Long-Term Return Business Is Worth The Investment.

The Stock Market May Be Diving, May Continue To Rise, But Anyway, Patient Investors To The Last Laugh.

Bombshell Obama Will Announce The Strategy Of The Destruction Of ISIS

U.S. President Barack Obama (Barack Obama) On Wednesday (September 10) Night In A Televised Speech At The White House, Announce To Weaken And Destroy In The Islamic State Of Iraq And Syria Activity (ISIS) Militants.


Barack Obama On Tuesday Afternoon Local Time Met With House And Senate Leaders Of Both Parties, To Predict His Idea And Measure The Reaction Of The Congress. During A Private Dinner On Monday Night, Mr. Obama Asked A Bipartisan Government National Security Official Opinion.

Barack Obama And The Administration Officials Have Repeatedly Said The President Has The Current Air ISIS Authorization For Targets In Iraq. They Declined To Say Whether Mr Obama Will Apply To The Congress For Further Authorization.

Mr Obama Had Said That His Strategy Would Not Be Involved In U.S. Combat Troops On The Ground, Will Be Similar To A Counter-Terrorism Campaign In Recent Years.

Although Florida Democratic Senator Bill Nelson Says Congress Would Authorize The Obama Bombing ISIS Goal In Syria, But Has No Interest In Both Houses Of Congress For A Vote.

By Taking Advantage Of Its $85 Billion Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) Account Money, American Troops Might Be For A Period Of Time Without From Congress For More Money To Continue The Current Operation.

According To Foreign Media, The White House Strategy May Include On Expanding Our Scope Of Air Strikes In Iraq, And Extend To Syria. The United States Is Also Trying To Form An International Coalition, Including Saudi Arabia And Other Local Countries To Curb The Expansion Of The Islamic State.

In Accordance With The State Of Illinois Democrat Congressman Jan Schakowsky Said On Tuesday That If Mr Obama To Congress Authorized, I Think That Will Be Unanimous Support; If He Want Money, I Think It Would Get Congress To Support.

According To ABC News/Washington Post Poll Released Tuesday Showed That Ninety Percent Of Americans Think ISIS Is A Serious Threat To American Interests.

According To The 4-7 In September For The Poll, 65% Of People Support The U.S. Air Strikes Against Sunni Extremists Will Extend To Syria, For The Same Period Last Year More Than Twice As Likely To Support.

Obama At This Time Last Year Was Forced To Withdraw The Authorization On The Syrian Crackdown Application, Because Obviously He Didn’T Support In Congress.

Before This, The British Parliament Rejected The Prime Minister David Cameron (David Cameron) Proposed To Participate In Military Action Against The Syrian Regime.

The Spot Price Of Gold Is Not Urgent To Prevent Short Carelessness


2Nd Session In New York Yesterday, Because Of The U.S. Labor Market Closed, Basic Flat Gold Trading, Market Volatility Is Limited, Days After The Highest Price Of Gold Rose To $1289.78 An Ounce, The Lowest $1284.69 An Ounce.

The Price Of Gold More Than In 1289 Out Of 1284 In Early Trading, In And Out Of The Point To Grasp, To This Kind Of Only $5 Profit Depending On Is Not In The Eyes Of Some People, It Would Be Wrong In European 1289 Turn Into Empty, The Plate 1286 Profits To The Sidelines.

Geopolitical Issues Such As Iraq, Ukraine Come And Go, The Gold Price Sensitivity To Its Less And Less, The Gold Market Safe-Haven Demand Is Not The Same As Ever, Geopolitical Issues Can Only Have A Short Drive To The Price Of Gold, But The United States To Raise Interest Rates May Be Lower Price.

Because The Labor Day Holiday Time, So The Financial Calendar Basic Without Too Much Can Lead To Gold And Silver Price Fluctuations. It Is Important To Note That The Spot Gold Trading Market Running More Slowly, For Short Guard Was Still Not Careless.

Physical Gold, Gold ETF Holdings Over The Weekend The 0.6 Tons Of Gold, Holdings Fell To 795 Tons. Gold Etfs Last Underweight Or Sign Bulls Still Shaky, Were Less Likely To Rebound Sharply.

Day Chart: Gold Price Performance In Two Consecutive Days, The Important Support Level Located Above 10 – Day Moving Average, Also Open A More Important Point Below The Trend, Spot Gold 5 Daily Average Line Hook Up Wearing A 10 – Day Moving Average To Form Gold Fork, Cloth Belt Formed Expansion Trend, And Form A Larger Pressure In The Rail, The Kinetic Energy To The Appended Drawings MACD Green Column Still Must Further Observe.

4 Hours Figure: Spot Gold Is Also Did Not Give Not Obvious Direction Of MA5 MA10 Stalemate, MA30 Wear MA60 Fork Into Gold, The Price Range Is Still Mainly In Fiji Today Paula 61.8 To 50.0, 1291-1280 On The Line, From The Above Situation, Gold Price Point Of View Is Given Priority To With Callbacks Do Much Today, Must Be Waiting For The Right Price Point, Don’T Have To Rush To Get In.

Today Gold Prices Rebound Blocked Rail Line In Among, Short Line Or Has The Potential To Fall Down, At This Time Suggest That Investors Pay Attention To Focus On Gold Can Hold Above The Previous Low Support. If The Spot Gold Prices Fell Below The Support Today, Will Start To Continue Downward Space, Suggest Investors Short Then Intervene At This Time.

A Weak Euro Has Not Been Better Investors Should Pay Close Attention To

Foreign Exchange On August 29 – This Week, The Euro Is Still Down On The Way, Just Drop Speed. Same Time On Thursday, The Euro Temporarily To $1.3183, Below $1.3241 Friday. From Weekly To See, At Present, The Euro Has Dropped By 17 Weeks, The Biggest Drop Of 6.01%, This Move Is Very Bleak.

On Friday, The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Delivered A Speech At Jackson Hole In The United States Attitude Obvious Soft, That Raises The Investor Expectations Of Additional Quantitative Easing The European Central Bank, The Expected Line Pressing The Euro, And As Long As The Quantity Policy Hasn’T Announced Wide, So It’S Difficult To Make General Bearish.

Yesterday The German Negative Employment Figures Released By The Accident. In Recent Weeks, The German Rare Announced A Series Of Bad Economic Indicators, Investors For Germany’S Economic Outlook Has Clearly Is Much Less Than The Early To Be Optimistic. Germany Is The Euro Zone’S Economic Backbone, Is Also The Main Aid To The Struggling Economies, For Now, The Backbone Has Own, Obviously A Weight To The Euro.

The European Commission, According To Data Released On Thursday August Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Index Fell To 102.1 From 100.6 In July, Also Not 101.5 As Expected, The Data Clearly Further Suppress The Euro. However, The Euro Zone Will Be Released On Friday August Inflation Data Is The Key, The Current Market Expectations Eurozone Inflation Is Only 0.3% In August, Weaker Than 0.4% In July. The ECB Considers Risk Level Is Less Than 1%, The Bank’S Inflation Target Value Is Close To 2%.

Germany On Thursday Announced The First Price Data, In Theory, The Data On Friday’S Euro Zone Price Slightly Hints, But Germany On Thursday Announced The CPI Rose In August To Zero Growth, Consistent With The Expected, It Won’T Be Able To Make A Prompt.


Meeting Will Be Held Next Week The European Central Bank Interest Rate, The Market Of The European Central Bank Offering A Large Acquisitions Assets Measures Are Quite Looking Forward To, But I’M Not Sure, Because This Week Three German Finance Minister, Diluting Market About Quantity Of Wide Prospect. In General, If The Eurozone Inflation Figures Released Friday Do Only 0.3% Or Less, So The Meeting On Wide Policy Opportunities Would Soar, So Today The Price Had A Great Influence On The Short-Term Trend Data, Investors Should Pay Close Attention To.

On August 29 (Friday) In Early, Sterling/Dollar Levels Near 1.6585. A Modest Rebound In The Previous Session Pounds, The Highest Reached 1.6613, And The Second Consecutive Trading Day To Yang Line Closed Up. Within Asia Pacific Time, Sterling/Dollar To 1.6585 For A Tight Range.

In The Previous Session Sterling/Dollar Briefly Traded At 1.66000 Above, But Then The Highs. As Mentioned Earlier, The Water Level For The Short-Term Resistance, Rate Any Rebound Is Likely To Be Limited At A Time.

Downward, Sterling/Dollar Is 1.6565, August 28, The Water Level Is Low, If Further Look Down Below The Water Level Is 1.6530/35 (August 25 And 27 Low).

FXStreet Famous Foreign Exchange Website, Analysts Said The Recent Volatility GBP/Usd Is Very Low, Since Early This Week Rate Basic Trading At 80 Basis Points, If The Session To Continue Trading Range On 1.6535/1.6613, This Will Be The Years The Most Narrow Range For A Week.

(Source: GBP/Usd 60 Minutes Figure FX168 Business Network)

≪ P ≫ The Russian Central Bank Raise Interest Rates By 150 Basis Points Yesterday That An Accident, But The Rouble Rally Lasted Only For Two Minutes, The Decline Of Record Three Years Still Throughout The Day. Market Participants Believe That This Reflects The Central Bank To Misjudge The Situation, Only By Raising Interest Rates Cannot Let The Exchange Rate To Any Change. Russia’S Central Bank Announced Yesterday, Raised Interest Rates To 9.5%, Rise Higher Than Market Expectations For One Percent. Market To The Russian Central Bank Forecast More Active Intervention To Promote The Rouble Rebound Sharply, Rising Of Record Since At Least 2003 Years. It’S A Pity That The Central Bank’S Efforts In Raising Interest Rates More Than Expected But Only To Let The Ruble Rose Against The Dollar To Maintain A Minute Or Two, Then The Ruble Fell A Six-Year High. Throughout The Ruble Fell 3.6% Against The Dollar Yesterday, The Biggest Drop In Three Years. ≪ / P ≫ On Russia’S Central Bank Raised Interest Rates Sharply Accident, Credit Agricole, Senior Emerging Market Strategist At Guillaume Tresca Thinks, The Rouble Falling Pressure May Be Eased, But Only To Relax Liquidity Can Truly Solve The Problem. ING (ING Groep) Chief Economist Dmitry In Russia Polevoy Critics Said Yesterday: Just Raising Interest Rates Will Not Have Any Change. The Russian Central Bank Either Do Not Understand Where Is The Fundamental Problem, Or Is Afraid Of Action, Or Both Two Cases. According To Bloomberg Statistics, 7-9 Months Of This Year, The Rouble Tumbled More Than 16% Against The Dollar, The Rouble Become The World’S Biggest Currencies. This Year, To Stop The Rouble Devaluation, Russia Has Invested $71 Billion Reserves, Intervention Reduce Reserves By 14%, To $439 Billion. After Wall Street See Article Mentioned, On October 21, The Russian Central Bank Reserves To Reduce $7.9 Billion A Week, The Damping Of Record Five Months, More Than 20 Days In October To Support The Rouble Spent More Than $15 Billion, But The Rouble Against The Dollar On October 23, Such As A Basket Of Currencies Is Still Below The Russian Central Bank Set The Lower Limit. Announced Yesterday To Raise Interest Rates At The Same Time, The Russian Central Bank Statement Also Said That Has Been Prepared To Improve The External Environment And Inflation Display Steady Downward Trend Began To Implement Monetary Easing. Goldman Sachs And Commerzbank, Russian Policymakers Should Break The Practice Of The Ruble Intervention, Let The Currency Float More Freely. In Action, The Russian Side Should Be No Longer Any Warnings, Set Any Restriction, At The Same Time Selling Dollars, Thereby Forcing Speculators To Give Up The Idea Of Continue To Shorting Roubles. Goldman Sachs Analyst Believes That The Russian Central Bank This Naked Intervention Policy For How Long, Bet The Ruble Fell Further Speculators Profit Can Have How Long. They Wrote In A Report: The Market May Be In The Test, The Russian Central Bank In The Coming Days Will Insist On The Policy Of The Ruble Intervention. Last Month The Central Bank First Deputy Governor Sergei Shvetsov Said That Russia’S Central Bank Is Not Going To Like 2008 And 2009 Large-Scale Use Reserves To Support Domestic Enterprises. From Next Year To Let The Currency Float. The Bank’S Chief Economist Russia Vladimir Osakovskiy Also Think That Russian Policymakers Insist That Only Make To Float Freely In The Next Year, They Reflect The Policy Continuity, This Is Their A Consistent Attitude. Wall Street See Article Mentioned Last Month, After The Price Of Crude Oil Fell To Their Lowest Level In Four Years, Compounded Relies Heavily On Oil Revenue Of Russia. BNP Paribas TKB BNP Paribas Investment Institutions Paribas, Chief Investment Officer Of Vladimir Tsuprov Is Expected At The Time: Any One Currency Speculators, Any A Professional Investment Banker Knows, (Russia) In The Fourth Quarter Of Debt Service Scale Peak, Who Also Won’T Again For This Batch Of Debt Financing. Obviously, They Are Actively Betting The Ruble Drop.


The Russian Central Bank Raise Interest Rates By 150 Basis Points Yesterday That An Accident, But The Rouble Rally Lasted Only For Two Minutes, The Decline Of Record Three Years Still Throughout The Day. Market Participants Believe That This Reflects The Central Bank To Misjudge The Situation, Only By Raising Interest Rates Cannot Let The Exchange Rate To Any Change. Russia’S Central Bank Announced Yesterday, Raised Interest Rates To 9.5%, Rise Higher Than Market Expectations For One Percent. Market To The Russian Central Bank Forecast More Active Intervention To Promote The Rouble Rebound Sharply, Rising Of Record Since At Least 2003 Years. It’S A Pity That The Central Bank’S Efforts In Raising Interest Rates More Than Expected But Only To Let The Ruble Rose Against The Dollar To Maintain A Minute Or Two, Then The Ruble Fell A Six-Year High. Throughout The Ruble Fell 3.6% Against The Dollar Yesterday, The Biggest Drop In Three Years.

On Russia’S Central Bank Raised Interest Rates Sharply Accident, Credit Agricole, Senior Emerging Market Strategist At Guillaume Tresca Thinks, The Rouble Falling Pressure May Be Eased, But Only To Relax Liquidity Can Truly Solve The Problem. ING (ING Groep) Chief Economist Dmitry In Russia Polevoy Critics Said Yesterday: Just Raising Interest Rates Will Not Have Any Change. The Russian Central Bank Either Do Not Understand Where Is The Fundamental Problem, Or Is Afraid Of Action, Or Both Two Cases. According To Bloomberg Statistics, 7-9 Months Of This Year, The Rouble Tumbled More Than 16% Against The Dollar, The Rouble Become The World’S Biggest Currencies. This Year, To Stop The Rouble Devaluation, Russia Has Invested $71 Billion Reserves, Intervention Reduce Reserves By 14%, To $439 Billion. After Wall Street See Article Mentioned, On October 21, The Russian Central Bank Reserves To Reduce $7.9 Billion A Week, The Damping Of Record Five Months, More Than 20 Days In October To Support The Rouble Spent More Than $15 Billion, But The Rouble Against The Dollar On October 23, Such As A Basket Of Currencies Is Still Below The Russian Central Bank Set The Lower Limit. Announced Yesterday To Raise Interest Rates At The Same Time, The Russian Central Bank Statement Also Said That Has Been Prepared To Improve The External Environment And Inflation Display Steady Downward Trend Began To Implement Monetary Easing. Goldman Sachs And Commerzbank, Russian Policymakers Should Break The Practice Of The Ruble Intervention, Let The Currency Float More Freely. In Action, The Russian Side Should Be No Longer Any Warnings, Set Any Restriction, At The Same Time Selling Dollars, Thereby Forcing Speculators To Give Up The Idea Of Continue To Shorting Roubles. Goldman Sachs Analyst Believes That The Russian Central Bank This Naked Intervention Policy For How Long, Bet The Ruble Fell Further Speculators Profit Can Have How Long. They Wrote In A Report: The Market May Be In The Test, The Russian Central Bank In The Coming Days Will Insist On The Policy Of The Ruble Intervention. Last Month The Central Bank First Deputy Governor Sergei Shvetsov Said That Russia’S Central Bank Is Not Going To Like 2008 And 2009 Large-Scale Use Reserves To Support Domestic Enterprises. From Next Year To Let The Currency Float. The Bank’S Chief Economist Russia Vladimir Osakovskiy Also Think That Russian Policymakers Insist That Only Make To Float Freely In The Next Year, They Reflect The Policy Continuity, This Is Their A Consistent Attitude. Wall Street See Article Mentioned Last Month, After The Price Of Crude Oil Fell To Their Lowest Level In Four Years, Compounded Relies Heavily On Oil Revenue Of Russia. BNP Paribas TKB BNP Paribas Investment Institutions Paribas, Chief Investment Officer Of Vladimir Tsuprov Is Expected At The Time: Any One Currency Speculators, Any A Professional Investment Banker Knows, (Russia) In The Fourth Quarter Of Debt Service Scale Peak, Who Also Won’T Again For This Batch Of Debt Financing. Obviously, They Are Actively Betting The Ruble Drop.

Low Against The Yen, The Dollar Under Pressure Drop, Because The Data In The Us And Europe To Revive Risk Aversion

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The Dollar Against The Yen On Monday (Oct. 27) Further Pressure Lower, After Entering The New York Times Further From The Earlier Record High Above The 108 Mark, After The U.S. Economic Data Poor Performance Directly To Drag Down The Dollar Against The Yen Currency Moves. And In The Fed’S Policy Meeting Is About To Begin, The Condition Of The Market Risk Aversion Rising Again Also Bullish For The Yen.

The Industry Following The Institution Of Td Securities Analysts Believe That These Days, The Dollar Against The Yen At 106.50 Hit A Rebound After The Trend Line Support, But At The Beginning Of This Week, A Downturn In Economic Data In The Us And Europe Once Again To Boost The Market Under The Background Of Risk Aversion, The Dollar Against The Yen’S Rally Further Or In The Short Term. And After Above Blocked In 108, The Dollar Against The Yen Could Enter A New Wave Of Consolidation, Whether On Hold Since 107.25-35 This Key Support Interval Is Quite Important.

At The Same Time, Also Have The Personage Inside Course Of Study Points Out, The Dollar Against The Yen On Monday Of The Downtrend Is Accorded With The Stock Market In The Us And Europe In The Days Of Decline, This Shows That Driving Is A Major Cause Of Currency Moves Once Again Rising Market Risk Aversion. And After That, The Fed’S Policy Meeting About The Wording Of The Prospect May Be Against The Yen, The Dollar’S Direction Next.

At Present, The Rebound In The Dollar Against The Yen Resistance At 107.90, 108.09 And 108.40. Support Levels Are 107.59, 107.52 And 107.29. 02:02

Beijing Time, The Dollar Against The Yen At 107.69/72.

Foreign Exchange Through The Queen Yellen Finale Debut QE4 Ride On It


Yesterday (16 October) On Thursday, The Market Panic Significant Relief, A Correction, Among Them, The Dollar Index Closed At Cross, Gold And Silver Fell, For The Recent Slump In Europe And The Crude Oil Prices Rebound, Bank Of America Merrill Lynch And BNP Paribas Have Recently Reminded Slump In Crude Oil Is Coming To An End. After The Fed Put Off Raising Interest Rates Expected To Digest, Easing Expected To Ferment, The Market Into The Subtle Wait-And-See Status.

On Friday, October 17) Asian Stocks Extended — Stocks Rally Yesterday, The Main Stock Index Opened Higher; Benchmark London Copper Continue To Go Up, Tokyo Rose More Than 3%.

Fed Officials Push To Extend The QE, QE4 Clashed Over Disputed, The Market Waiting For Tonight 20:30 Fed Chairman Yellen Tuning Policy Direction. And Europe Has Notable Is, The Greek Debt Concerns The Resurgence, And Trigger Peripheral Euro Zone Countries Stock Market Tumbled On Thursday, Afternoon Continue To Focus On The European Debt Worries Of Fermentation. Intraday Data Concern: The United States In The Total Number Of Housing Starts In September, The United States In September, The Total Number Of Permits September CPI Month Rate, The United States, Canada, The University Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment In October.

, Panic, Recession, Epidemic Defect! Financial Markets This Week Seems To Never Lack Of Accident, And Thursday’S Market Seems To Prove It Again. Previously, Once The Market As Positions That Have Even More Hawkish American St. Louis Fed President Bullard Said On Thursday, The Decline In Inflation Expectations, Should Consider To Delay The End Of QE, The Comments The Dollar Fell Again.

Than Previously Mentioned Fed Officials Williams Is Still Still Elusive QE4, Brad Overnight Remarks, Undoubtedly More Closely With Market Correlation. Want To Know, Whether The Fed’S Decision In September, Or After Consistent Market Expectations, Are Firmly Convinced That The Federal Reserve At The End Of October Every QE To Buy, Will Be In Accordance With Its Existing Out Of Pace And A Natural Thing.

However, Just Before The Fed’S October Resolution Under The Background Of A Mere Two Weeks, Brad Thursday’S Speech, Maybe Will Make Changes Everything. Investors Should Never Ignore The Importance Of Brad Speaking, In The Last Year, Brad Is In Addition To The Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Speaking Of The Market Affect The Degree Of The Largest Federal Reserve Officials, And Even Can’T Vote This Year, Do Not Underestimate His Place Within The Fed.

Maybe, This Year To See Brad As Hawkish Investment Banking Institutions From Beginning To End Is A Myth, That Is Brad Who Actually, Not With Doves And Hawks Can Distinguish Easily. Familiar With The Fed’S Researchers May Know, Brad To Policy Speech, The Past Few Years For The Performance Of Inflation. He Was Last Year, The Federal Reserve And Advocates Of Inflation Threshold In The Forward-Looking Guidance. Now, On Global Inflation Data In After Entering The Fourth Quarter Of Falling Across The Board, Under The Background Of Commodity Prices Continue To Fall, Ghost Looming Deflation Brad Longing For QE Life, Also It Is Not Hard To Understand.

The Recent Series Of Weak Economic Data In The Eurozone, Germany Several Important Economies In The Worst For Many Years, Dragged Down By Many European Stock Market Continued To Fall. 15, Closing, The German DAX Stock Index Closed Down 2.47%, The Ftse 100 Index Closed Down 2.83%, The French Cac 40 Index Closed Down 3.63%; Especially With News, Greece Will Completely Exit From The Eurozone And The International Monetary Fund (IMF) All Of The Help, But The Market Is Full Of Doubt, That The Economy Is Far From Enough Strong, If The End Of The Rescue, A New European Debt Crisis Or Again, Greece’S Benchmark Stock Index Fell More Than 6% On The Day.

16Th Central European Stocks Fell Sharply Again. By The Beijing Time At 16, 19, The Ftse 100 Index Fell 1.81%, The French Cac 40 Index Fell 2.12%, Germany’S DAX Index Fell 1.75%, Spain’S Ibex 35 Index Fell 3.77%, Italy’S Ftse MIB Fell 3.4%.

The U.S. Economic Data Boosted By Performance, The Dollar Index Rebound On Thursday. The Next Focus For The Fed Chairman Yellen’S Speech On Friday, Given The Recent Blockbuster With Level Officials Said The Fed Could Delay Rate, Even Need To Launch A New Round Of Bond Buying Action, Yellen’S Latest Ideas Will Be Critical. If Her Remarks Revealed That Confidence In The Economy, On The Outside Of The Fed’S QE Expectations, Or The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Expected In Advance, Could Help The Dollar Rebound Further.

Chief Currency Strategist At Bank Of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank), Camilla Sutton Said Thursday’S Data Is Very Important, They Convinced The Market, There Was No Big Change In The Economic Outlook.

Dollars To Regain Some Momentum, The Dollar Against The Euro And The Swiss Franc On Wednesday Hit A Three-Week Low, Low Against The Safe-Haven Yen Hit More Than A Month. However, In The St. Louis Fed President Bullard (James Bullard) After The Speech, The Dollar Pared Gains.

Brad In An Interview, Given That Inflation Expectations, The Fed May Want To Extend The Program Execution Time, The End Of The Bond Purchases May Be Slower Than Market Expectations.

Brad Says: For The Fed, Inflation Expectations Downward Is A Very Serious Problem. So The Fed To Lower Inflation Expectations Should Be Put On Hold.

He Said That The Overall Macroeconomic Fundamentals And Strong Still Expected The United States Can Achieve 3% GDP Growth This Year. In Addition, The Rise Of The Dollar Is A Relatively Small Impact On The Economic Factors.

Federal Reserve Official Policy Outlook Is Split Further: The Federal Reserve Official Brad Is Calling For An End To The QE Delay On Thursday, I. Plosser On Thursday Called For Raising Interest Rates In Advance; Williams Had Called For A New Round Of Loose (QE4), On Tuesday Said Fisher Is Vs. Wednesday Without Pushing QE4

Two Big Data On Thursday The United States Have Both Surprisingly Strong; The Initial Jobless Claims Last Week Accident In Low Of 264000 To More Than 14 Years, Is Expected To 290000; U.S. Industrial Production In September Month Rate Increases By 1.0%, Significantly Better Than Expected And The Former Value

Central Data A Little Ease Market Concerns, But Is Still Poor. China’S Actual Foreign Direct Investment Was 1.9% Up Year-On-Year In September, Before Expectations And Values Are Down 14%; September CPI Final Value Determine Rose 0.3%, The Euro Zone At Five-Year Lows, CPI Month Final Value Rose 0.4%, Higher Than August’S 0.1% Rise.


It Is Worth Mentioning, Tonight After A Number Of Federal Reserve Officials, Yellen, Chairman Of The Federal Reserve Will Also Be Published In The American Economic Inequality Of Opportunity Convention Speech. Brad’S Comments About Delay The QE To Exit Can Conform To Yellen Intention, Whether Previous Comments About QE4 Williams And Yellen, Might As Well Let’S Yellen Speech To Find The Answer By Tonight.

Overnight, Brad’S First Reaction To Market Is Directly: The Fed May Stopped Shrinking QE In The Resolution In October. And If The Careful Observation, Brad’S Comments Are Most Concerned About The Market At Present Is Not The Premise Of Employment, But Inflation. Brad In The Back End Of The Third Premise Is: If The Market Inflation Expectations Downward.

Actually, Cause Brad Remarks Came Not Obviously Don’T Have Anything. The United States, According To The Latest Data On Five-Year Inflation Expectations Is Only 1.45%, Well Below The Fed’S 2% Inflation Target.

This Week, Once The 10-Year Treasury Yield Fell Below 2.000%, The Year Fell By Nearly 1%. German 10-Year Bonds Also Is Hovering Historical Position. Crude Oil Fell Further, U.S. WTI Crude Has Dropped Below $82 A Barrel, A New Low Since 2012. Especially The European And Japanese Deflation Fears, The Leaders Of The Two Economies Are Racking Their Brains To Reverse The Trend Of The Economic Slowdown.

Especially The European And Japanese Deflation Fears, The Leaders Of The Two Economies Are Racking Their Brains To Reverse The Trend Of The Economic Slowdown. While Facing The United States Is Very Different From Europe And Japan. Earlier This Year, The United States Has Been Working Towards The Fed’S Target Of 2% Inflation, But The Rest Of The World Economic Slowdown And A Stronger U.S. Dollar, The Influence Of The CPI Is Facing Downward Pressure.

On Wednesday, According To Data From The United States In September PPI Prices Have Dropped, Commodities Tumbled This Month May Exacerbate Downward Pressure On Inflation. And Tonight, The United States Will Also Be Released On September CPI Data, How Well Will Undoubtedly Affects The Heart Again.

In The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) On September 17, At A Press Conference After The Meeting, Yellen Said Policymakers Is Expected To Moderate Growth In The Future.

Yellen, However, Whether Tonight Will Reaffirm The Optimistic, Certainly Need To Hit A Question Mark. As The Fed’S Staunch Supporters Doves, Yellen May Still Cannot Turn A Blind Eye At The Risk Of The Global Economic Downturn. If His Comments More Towards Doves, Even Coincides With Brad Or Comments About The QE Williams, Material Will Make The Dollar Were Beaten Again. And If It So Ago Revealed That More Partial To Economic Optimism, The Dollar May Obtain A Certain Support.


From A Technical Point Of View, Dollar Rebound Yesterday Blocked Under 20 Daily Average Lines, 5 – Day Moving Average Death 10, 20 Daily Average Lines, Watching Moves On Types Of Bearish, Afternoon Still Has Room To Continue To Fall. Analysis From The Time Period, The Dollar Index Dropped This Sort Is Likely To Continue Until The End Of This Month, Began To Restore Rising Trend In November May Be Larger. Now There Is Some Short Term Short Dollar Profit Opportunities, But Should Pay Attention To Fast Forward Quickly, In Case Of More Than $$Appear More Or Short Covering Behavior. Today The Dollar Index Rising Short-Term Resistance At 85.10-85.15, Short-Term Important Resistance At 85.30-85.35. The Dollar Index Callback Support At 84.65-84.70 Today, Important Support At 84.35-84.40. Euro/Dollar Fell Yesterday At Around 1.2700 Support, Market Outlook Still Has Room To Rebound, Rebound Resistance In 1.2900, The First Important Resistance At 1.3000. Only Effectively Established In 1.3000 Above, The Euro/Dollar Will Reverse In The Midline In The Area Of The Detection Limit Was Substantial, Otherwise, Is An Empty Square Best Short Time.

Dollar Index: Can Be Sold In 85.35-84.65 Range, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 30 Points, The Target In The Lower Limit Of Interval.

The Euro/Dollar: Can Be In 1.2860-1.2730 Range To Buy, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, Target The Upper Limit Of The Interval.

GBP/Usd: In 1.6160-1.6050 Range To Buy, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, Target The Upper Limit Of The Interval.

The Dollar/Swiss Franc: Can At 0.9460-0.9360 Range To Sell, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Lower Limit Of Target In Range.

Dollar/Yen: In 106.60-105.60 Range To Buy, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Target In The Interval Of The Upper Limit.

Aud/Usd: In 0.8830-0.8710 Range To Buy, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, The Target In The Interval Of The Upper Limit.

U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar: Can Be Sold At 1.1330-1.1200 Range, Effectively Break A Stop-Loss 40 Points, Target In The Lower Limit Of Interval.

Investment Guru Brave Mistake – Market Bear Market Were Gone

Global Stock Markets Daily Communication Gartman Letter Founder, Investment Guru Terman Dennis Gartman Admits That He Is Wrong, He Said, Referring To The Said On October 16, I Have Been In The Global Stock Sell-Off Means The Beginning Of The Bear Market.

Add Terman Half A Month Ago, Said: This Is Just The Beginning Of A Bear Market, Investors Are Now Best Cash And Short-Term Bonds And Withdraw From The Stock Market, And Now I’M Afraid Is A Very Difficult Time For Stocks, Even Though I Was Reluctant To See, But Now Could Be The Beginning Of A Bear Market, And Duration Can Be Long.

Add Terman Put The Remarks As Especially The American Market Volatility In The Global Market, Global Economy Before The Three Engine In China, The United States And Germany Released A Series Of Weak Economic Data Anomalies Caused Investors Concerned.

Add Terman Said: Now I Am A Neutral View Of The Stock Market, I Actually Have A Few Days Also Bearish Market, Obviously This Idea Is Wrong, No Matter What I Say, The Market Is Still Very Cow… I Was Wrong.

Add Terman Said That During The Year So Far His Investment Rate Of 8.3%, But, He Says, I Can Also Earn More.

Whitman Said, Many Investors Failed To Realize This, Still Stand On The Wrong Side, A Difference. Terman Said: They Didn’T Realize That Others Have Backed By The European Central Bank (ECB), Japan’S Accidental Release, The European Central Bank Will Also Have To Follow Up.

Announced On Friday, The Bank Of Japan Meeting In October, Will Be A Year Of Monetary Base Monetary Stimulus Target Increase To 80 Trillion Yen, And The Target Is 60-70 Trillion Yen. Accident, Expand The Scale Of The QQE Contrary To Expectations, The Yen Short Fell Sharply, And The Japanese Stock Market Surged 4.5%. The European Central Bank Will Also Hold The Monetary Policy Meeting On Thursday, The Market Does Not Expect The Bank To Have New Action, But Obviously The Silver Face A Lot Of Pressure.

Add Terman Is Not Only A Beautiful Stock Market Experts. Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Strategist David Kostin Forecast Last Week, The U.S. Stock Market During The Year Will Also See New Highs.

Investment Choices, Argues That He Would Buy Those Who Can Keep Up With The Global Economic Growth Of Company Business Is Very Simple.

He Said: “I Hope To Have The ‘Onto Feet Feel Pain, I Want To Buy Metal, Railway, Ships. He Named Alcoa Is Favored By The Company.

QE Curtain Call Global Capital Flow Will Reverse

Financial Markets Reacted Immediately $Index Approaches A Four-Year High Gold Prices Tumbling 2%

Yesterday Morning Beijing Time, The Federal Reserve Announced The $15 Billion Bond Buying Scale Will Be At The End Of This Month, This Means That The Third After 10 Months Of Winding Down Its Formal Relics.

Although Termination Of The Third In Line With Expectations, But Financial Markets Remain Immediately Response: The Dollar Index Again At More Than 86 High; International Gold Prices Fell 2%, Low Back In Three Weeks; The Price Of Crude Oil After Continuous Collapse Outlook Remains To Empty, Agency Is Expected To Today’S Domestic Oil Prices Will Fall Even Seven; U.S. Stocks Edged Down.

The Industry Generally Believe That: The Fed Raising Interest Rates In The Second Quarter Next Year Probability Is Very Big; QE Exit And Monetary Policy Are Normalized, Money Will Return The United States, Experts Believe That Because Of The Strong Domestic Demand Market And Reform, Our Country Can Resist Money Back Pressure In The United States.

Article/Reporters Well Nan, Li Zhen

, The Federal Reserve Announced Yesterday To Maintain The Current 0 ~ 0.25% Of The Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged, Ultra-Low Interest Rates Unchanged For Quite A Long Time, At The Same Time, The Current Scale Of $15 Billion In Bond Purchases At The End Of This Month, This Means That The Third After 10 Months Of Winding Down Its Formal Relics. The Move In Line With Expectations.

Goldman Sachs And Citigroup Agree That Policy-Setting Statement Slightly Hawkish, That Could Mean Raising Interest Rates Expected Had Not Been Delayed. And About The First Point, After The Market Mainstream Is Expected In The Second Quarter Of Next Year, There Are Also Some People Suggest That For The Third Quarter Of Next Year.

Emerging Economies Borrowing Costs Will Rise

Launched In September 2012, Since The Third Fed A Total Of About $1.6 Trillion In Capital To The Market.

Because Before The Fed’S Quantitative Easing Involves The Amount Is Huge, Its Exit As A Result, Will Lead To Global Capital Flows Reversed: Short Time Inevitably Liquidity Tightening, Bear The Brunt Of The European Market, The Chinese Market Will Also Be Affected. : Institute Of International Finance (IIF) Expected In 2013 And 2014, Cross-Border Capital Flowed Out Of Emerging Markets Expected To Rise To $1 Trillion, And 2014 Flows Into Emerging Market Capital Size From $1.145 Trillion To $1.112 Trillion This Year, To Its Lowest Level Since 2009.

Out Long-Term Bond Yields Rose Sharply On The One Hand, Cause The United States, On The Other Hand To Reduce The Market Demand For Treasury Bonds, And Boost The Long-Term Real Interest Rates, And Promote Enterprise Financing Costs And Asset-Backed Bonds Interest Rates. For Money For Degree Of Large, Emerging Economies In Asia, Financing And Borrowing Costs Will Therefore Generally Rise. At The Same Time, Asian And Emerging Markets, Currency, Stock Market Has Now Fallen, Emerging-Market Bond Yields Sharply Higher, The Trend Could Continue. Resources, Double Deficit Countries Export Country, Unprecedented Debt Service Pressure Will Increase.

The Dollar:

The Dollar Index Back To More Than 86 High

Short-Term Dollar Index Significantly Stronger In 86.49 After The Callback. The Japanese Yen And The Euro, The Pound Fell Broadly, Etc. Yesterday Evening, America’S Third-Quarter GDP Quarter 3.5% Growth Rate, Stronger Than Expected 3%. The People’S Livelihood Macro Team And Other Analysts Widely Expect A Stronger Dollar Extended To Longer-Term.


Big Selling Gold To Back Three Weeks Low

Within 24 Hours, The International Spot Gold Cumulative Decline Rate Is As High As 2% Above, By Wednesday’S Position Fell To Near $1230 A Day Three Week Low Of $1204 An Ounce On Thursday Afternoon, International Pan You Then Sell Sheet. Contrast In Commodities, Oil And Some Non-Us Currency, The Fed’S Policy And The Correlation Is Even Higher Gold Prices. Gold Leaf Jewelry Analyst Xu’S Work That Before The Fed To Carry Out The Rate Hike, Gold Will Not End Just A Nightmare, Or Fell To $1050 Mining Location Near The Cost Price.

Crude Oil:

Low Domestic Oil Prices Or 7 Losses

Due To The Strong Support Of Prophase Has Fallen To $80 Before, Changes In The International Oil Prices Yesterday And New York Oil Prices Near $82 A Barrel Thursday Morning Closing Position And The Shape Of The Present Low. Oil Market Outlook Is Still The Possibility Of Further Dipped Below $75. Today In Domestic Oil Prices Adjustment Window, Zhuo And Information Institutions Such As Agreed: Seven Losses Should Be A Big Probability Event, Is Expected To Cut About 300 Yuan/Ton, Gasoline Prices Will Be Back In October 2010, Generally Before Age 6 Yuan, Its Lowest Level For Four Years.

U.S. Stocks:

Overall Plain Fund Managers Bullish

Because U.S. Stocks Digested The Good Information, Ahead Of Its Overall Response Is Dull. The Dow Jones Index Fell 0.18%. Raw Materials And Industrial Stocks Led The Slide Plate. Since Last Year, The Federal Reserve Announced It Would Exit The QE, U.S. Stocks In The Past More Than 10 Months Record Highs. The Standard &Amp; Poor’S 500 Index Is Rising In March 2009, The Lowest Point Is Nearly Two Times. Standard Chartered Bank Suggest To Increase The Stock Over The Next 12 Months, Especially On U.S. Stocks.


Market Volatility Soybean Meal Jumped 6%

London Market On Wednesday To Thursday China Domestic Futures Market Volatility. Shanghai Non-Ferrous Metals Such As Copper, Shanghai Zinc On Thursday After Opening In Different Degree Of Decline, Shanghai Copper Main 1501 Contract Closed Down 0.19%, Will Be Giving Away All Early Gains. But Due To Some Agencies For Capital Exports, Agricultural Products Has Become A Popular Varieties. The Overnight International Cotton Futures Jumped 2%, Rare Overnight International Market Jumped 6% Soybean Meal.

Gold Prices Downturn Promote Buy On Dips Europe And The United States Retail Investors Rushed To Gold

The Recent Downturn In Demand For Gold Makes Gold Increased Dramatically, Germany And Some Investors In The United States Is To Return To The Market In A Few Years Later.

Mint COINS And Gold Bars In North America And Europe Has Increased Sales, Especially More Retail Investment Preference For Small Bars. Allegedly, Sales Reached In April 2013, The Highest Level Since The Gold Prices Plunge.

Germany Degussa Is Europe’S Largest Gold And Silver Trader, Its Gold Trading Is Now Three Times The Normal Level.

Degussa’S Chief Executive Wolfgang Wrzesniok – Rossbach Said: We Have To Extend Business For Half An Hour On Friday Night, Because There Are Too Many People In Lining Up To Buy.

And Just Last Friday, The U.S. Mint Sold 1.425 Million Ounces Of Silver American Eagle, Was The Largest Since January 13, Daily Sales, And It Was The First Day Of The Silver Years On Sale. And This Sales Accounted For A Quarter Of The Total Sales In October. Monday’S Sales Are Also More Than Average.

In October The Us Mint Sold 67500 Ounces Of Silver American Eagle, This Year’S Sales In The Second High. On Monday, The American Eagle COINS Daily Sold 12000 Ounces, Is One 5 Of October Sales.

America’S Largest Gold Coin Wholesalers Manfra Tordella &Amp; Amp; Brookes, Chief Operating Officer Scott Spitzer Said: Not Only Is The Trading Strong, Those Few Years Not To Retail Investors Are Also Beginning To Buy Approach. Now Is The Most Special, The Price Has Dropped Below $1180 An Ounce, It Attracted A Lot Of Attention And Interest.

In April Last Year, Gold Prices Fell, A Large Number Of Buy On Dips Approach, But Demand Basic Run Out After Two Months, Even If The Gold Price To Fall Further.

Also, The Managing Director Of The Royal Canadian Mint Chris Carkner Said, Sales Is Very Strong In The Past Few Days.

Daniel Marburger Says: CoinInvest.Com Is Sensitive To The Price Of The Investors In The Current Price Level In Buying, This Is A Very Good Chance To Play.